I previously posted new Cook PVIs for all congressional districts. As many noted, the numbers seem screwy. This is a function of the formula Cook uses to calculate PVI.
Currently, Cook uses this formula for calculating PVI:
Cook PVI = ((Gore’s 2000 two-party vote share in congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally))/2. Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs.
The entire problem with the Cook PVI is that it compares 2000 state results with 2004 national results. The USA as a whole should have a PVI of 0.0. But, by comparing 2000 state results with 2004 national results (apples to oranges) it screws things up and, in fact, the USA as a whole had a PVI of R+0.8 for 2005-2008. Using this same formula to calculate new PVIs after 2008 elections results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of D+2.5. This is totally screwy and defeats the purpose of the Cook PVI which is to show how much a congressional district is more democratic or republican than the nation as a whole.
The formula fix to correct this problem is simple:
PVI = (Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share in particular congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Obama’s 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district – Obama’s 2008 two-party vote share nationally)/2. Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs. Using this formula to calculate PVI, results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of 0. So, the numbers for each congressional district truly show how much more Democratic or Republican leaning the district is versus the nation as a whole, unlike the current Cook PVI numbers.
Past discussion of the Cook PVI, problems with it, and how to fix it are here, here, and here.
Using this formula and based on Swing State’s Compilation of presidential results for all 435 Congressional Districts, I have calculated “Swing State” PVIs for each congressional district, for both before the 2008 Presidential Election and afterwards:
| State | CD | Member | Party | Old SPVI | New SPVI | Change |
| AK | AL | Young | (R) | R+ 14.9 | R+ 13.1 | D+ 1.8 |
| AL | 1 | Bonner | (R) | R+ 12.4 | R+ 14.0 | R+ 1.6 |
| AL | 2 | Bright | (D) | R+ 13.8 | R+ 16.5 | R+ 2.7 |
| AL | 3 | Rogers | (R) | R+ 5.1 | R+ 8.8 | R+ 3.7 |
| AL | 4 | Aderholt | (R) | R+ 16.5 | R+ 25.5 | R+ 9.0 |
| AL | 5 | Griffith | (D) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 12.3 | R+ 5.0 |
| AL | 6 | Bachus | (R) | R+ 25.9 | R+ 28.6 | R+ 2.7 |
| AL | 7 | Davis | (D) | D+ 16.1 | D+ 17.5 | D+ 1.3 |
| AR | 1 | Berry | (D) | R+ 0.3 | R+ 7.9 | R+ 7.6 |
| AR | 2 | Snyder | (D) | R+ 0.5 | R+ 4.5 | R+ 4.0 |
| AR | 3 | Boozman | (R) | R+ 12.1 | R+ 15.5 | R+ 3.4 |
| AR | 4 | Ross | (D) | R+ 0.0 | R+ 6.9 | R+ 6.9 |
| AZ | 1 | Kirkpatrick | (D) | R+ 2.8 | R+ 5.8 | R+ 3.0 |
| AZ | 2 | Franks | (R) | R+ 9.4 | R+ 12.8 | R+ 3.4 |
| AZ | 3 | Shadegg | (R) | R+ 6.9 | R+ 9.3 | R+ 2.4 |
| AZ | 4 | Pastor | (D) | D+ 13.6 | D+ 13.1 | R+ 0.5 |
| AZ | 5 | Mitchell | (D) | R+ 4.6 | R+ 4.8 | R+ 0.1 |
| AZ | 6 | Flake | (R) | R+ 13.0 | R+ 14.4 | R+ 1.4 |
| AZ | 7 | Grijalva | (D) | D+ 9.2 | D+ 6.1 | R+ 3.1 |
| AZ | 8 | Giffords | (D) | R+ 2.3 | R+ 4.5 | R+ 2.2 |
| CA | 1 | Thompson | (D) | D+ 9.7 | D+ 13.1 | D+ 3.4 |
| CA | 2 | Herger | (R) | R+ 13.3 | R+ 10.6 | D+ 2.7 |
| CA | 3 | Lungren | (R) | R+ 7.5 | R+ 5.5 | D+ 1.9 |
| CA | 4 | McClintock | (R) | R+ 11.7 | R+ 9.9 | D+ 1.8 |
| CA | 5 | Matsui | (D) | D+ 12.9 | D+ 15.3 | D+ 2.4 |
| CA | 6 | Woolsey | (D) | D+ 19.9 | D+ 23.3 | D+ 3.4 |
| CA | 7 | Miller | (D) | D+ 18.3 | D+ 19.2 | D+ 0.9 |
| CA | 8 | Pelosi | (D) | D+ 35.3 | D+ 35.5 | D+ 0.3 |
| CA | 9 | Lee | (D) | D+ 36.9 | D+ 37.1 | D+ 0.3 |
| CA | 10 | Tauscher | (D) | D+ 8.9 | D+ 11.7 | D+ 2.8 |
| CA | 11 | McNerney | (D) | R+ 3.8 | R+ 1.2 | D+ 2.6 |
| CA | 12 | Speier | (D) | D+ 21.7 | D+ 22.9 | D+ 1.2 |
| CA | 13 | Stark | (D) | D+ 20.9 | D+ 22.4 | D+ 1.5 |
| CA | 14 | Eshoo | (D) | D+ 17.5 | D+ 20.7 | D+ 3.2 |
| CA | 15 | Honda | (D) | D+ 13.6 | D+ 15.3 | D+ 1.7 |
| CA | 16 | Lofgren | (D) | D+ 15.3 | D+ 16.0 | D+ 0.7 |
| CA | 17 | Farr | (D) | D+ 16.1 | D+ 18.8 | D+ 2.8 |
| CA | 18 | Cardoza | (D) | D+ 2.6 | D+ 3.6 | D+ 1.1 |
| CA | 19 | Radanovich | (R) | R+ 10.2 | R+ 8.6 | D+ 1.7 |
| CA | 20 | Costa | (D) | D+ 4.0 | D+ 4.8 | D+ 0.8 |
| CA | 21 | Nunes | (R) | R+ 13.5 | R+ 12.6 | D+ 0.8 |
| CA | 22 | McCarthy | (R) | R+ 16.8 | R+ 16.2 | D+ 0.7 |
| CA | 23 | Capps | (D) | D+ 8.8 | D+ 11.9 | D+ 3.1 |
| CA | 24 | Gallegly | (R) | R+ 5.6 | R+ 3.7 | D+ 1.9 |
| CA | 25 | McKeon | (R) | R+ 7.9 | R+ 5.5 | D+ 2.4 |
| CA | 26 | Dreier | (R) | R+ 4.6 | R+ 3.0 | D+ 1.6 |
| CA | 27 | Sherman | (D) | D+ 11.8 | D+ 12.6 | D+ 0.7 |
| CA | 28 | Berman | (D) | D+ 24.0 | D+ 23.4 | R+ 0.6 |
| CA | 29 | Schiff | (D) | D+ 11.8 | D+ 14.6 | D+ 2.8 |
| CA | 30 | Waxman | (D) | D+ 19.2 | D+ 17.8 | R+ 1.4 |
| CA | 31 | Becerra | (D) | D+ 29.5 | D+ 28.5 | R+ 1.0 |
| CA | 32 | (D) | D+ 16.0 | D+ 14.8 | R+ 1.2 | |
| CA | 33 | Watson | (D) | D+ 35.2 | D+ 34.6 | R+ 0.6 |
| CA | 34 | Roybal-Allard | (D) | D+ 22.1 | D+ 21.9 | R+ 0.2 |
| CA | 35 | Waters | (D) | D+ 31.8 | D+ 31.5 | R+ 0.3 |
| CA | 36 | Harman | (D) | D+ 10.0 | D+ 11.2 | D+ 1.3 |
| CA | 37 | Richardson | (D) | D+ 26.6 | D+ 26.6 | R+ 0.1 |
| CA | 38 | Napolitano | (D) | D+ 19.0 | D+ 17.8 | R+ 1.2 |
| CA | 39 | Sanchez | (D) | D+ 11.9 | D+ 12.3 | D+ 0.3 |
| CA | 40 | Royce | (R) | R+ 8.7 | R+ 7.5 | D+ 1.1 |
| CA | 41 | Lewis | (R) | R+ 9.7 | R+ 10.1 | R+ 0.4 |
| CA | 42 | Miller | (R) | R+ 10.9 | R+ 9.6 | D+ 1.4 |
| CA | 43 | Baca | (D) | D+ 12.4 | D+ 12.8 | D+ 0.3 |
| CA | 44 | Calvert | (R) | R+ 6.6 | R+ 5.8 | D+ 0.9 |
| CA | 45 | Bono | (R) | R+ 3.8 | R+ 3.2 | D+ 0.6 |
| CA | 46 | Rohrabacher | (R) | R+ 6.6 | R+ 5.5 | D+ 1.1 |
| CA | 47 | Sanchez | (D) | D+ 3.8 | D+ 4.1 | D+ 0.3 |
| CA | 48 | Campbell | (R) | R+ 8.7 | R+ 5.8 | D+ 2.9 |
| CA | 49 | Issa | (R) | R+ 11.4 | R+ 10.1 | D+ 1.4 |
| CA | 50 | Bilbray | (R) | R+ 5.1 | R+ 3.0 | D+ 2.1 |
| CA | 51 | Filner | (D) | D+ 6.3 | D+ 7.4 | D+ 1.0 |
| CA | 52 | Hunter | (R) | R+ 9.7 | R+ 9.1 | D+ 0.6 |
| CA | 53 | Davis | (D) | D+ 11.5 | D+ 14.3 | D+ 2.8 |
| CO | 1 | DeGette | (D) | D+ 17.3 | D+ 20.9 | D+ 3.6 |
| CO | 2 | Udall | (D) | D+ 7.2 | D+ 10.7 | D+ 3.6 |
| CO | 3 | Salazar | (D) | R+ 6.3 | R+ 4.8 | D+ 1.6 |
| CO | 4 | Markey | (D) | R+ 9.1 | R+ 5.8 | D+ 3.4 |
| CO | 5 | Lamborn | (R) | R+ 16.4 | R+ 14.4 | D+ 2.0 |
| CO | 6 | Coffman | (R) | R+ 10.7 | R+ 8.3 | D+ 2.5 |
| CO | 7 | Perlmutter | (D) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 4.3 | D+ 2.8 |
| CT | 1 | Larson | (D) | D+ 13.4 | D+ 12.4 | R+ 1.0 |
| CT | 2 | Courtney | (D) | D+ 6.8 | D+ 6.1 | R+ 0.6 |
| CT | 3 | DeLauro | (D) | D+ 11.0 | D+ 9.2 | R+ 1.8 |
| CT | 4 | Himes | (D) | D+ 4.6 | D+ 5.3 | D+ 0.7 |
| CT | 5 | Murphy | (D) | D+ 2.9 | D+ 2.4 | R+ 0.5 |
| DE | AL | Castle | (R) | D+ 5.6 | D+ 6.9 | D+ 1.3 |
| FL | 1 | Miller | (R) | R+ 20.0 | R+ 21.1 | R+ 1.0 |
| FL | 2 | Boyd | (D) | R+ 3.0 | R+ 5.5 | R+ 2.5 |
| FL | 3 | Brown | (D) | D+ 15.5 | D+ 18.1 | D+ 2.7 |
| FL | 4 | Crenshaw | (R) | R+ 17.0 | R+ 16.5 | D+ 0.5 |
| FL | 5 | Brown-Waite | (R) | R+ 5.8 | R+ 8.8 | R+ 3.0 |
| FL | 6 | Stearns | (R) | R+ 9.0 | R+ 10.0 | R+ 1.0 |
| FL | 7 | Mica | (R) | R+ 5.0 | R+ 6.5 | R+ 1.5 |
| FL | 8 | Grayson | (D) | R+ 4.0 | R+ 2.2 | D+ 1.8 |
| FL | 9 | Bilirakis | (R) | R+ 5.0 | R+ 6.0 | R+ 1.0 |
| FL | 10 | Young | (R) | D+ 0.5 | R+ 0.7 | R+ 1.2 |
| FL | 11 | Castor | (D) | D+ 10.3 | D+ 11.4 | D+ 1.1 |
| FL | 12 | Putnam | (R) | R+ 6.0 | R+ 5.5 | D+ 0.5 |
| FL | 13 | Buchanan | (R) | R+ 4.7 | R+ 5.5 | R+ 0.7 |
| FL | 14 | Mack | (R) | R+ 11.0 | R+ 11.0 | D+ 0.0 |
| FL | 15 | Posey | (R) | R+ 5.0 | R+ 5.5 | R+ 0.5 |
| FL | 16 | Rooney | (R) | R+ 3.0 | R+ 4.5 | R+ 1.5 |
| FL | 17 | Meek | (D) | D+ 34.5 | D+ 34.2 | R+ 0.3 |
| FL | 18 | Ros-Lehtinen | (R) | R+ 5.0 | R+ 2.7 | D+ 2.3 |
| FL | 19 | Wexler | (D) | D+ 20.0 | D+ 14.6 | R+ 5.4 |
| FL | 20 | Wasserman-Schultz | (D) | D+ 17.0 | D+ 12.6 | R+ 4.4 |
| FL | 21 | Diaz-Balart | (R) | R+ 7.0 | R+ 5.2 | D+ 1.8 |
| FL | 22 | Klein | (D) | D+ 2.5 | D+ 0.8 | R+ 1.7 |
| FL | 23 | Hastings | (D) | D+ 28.5 | D+ 28.3 | R+ 0.2 |
| FL | 24 | Kosmas | (D) | R+ 3.5 | R+ 4.2 | R+ 0.7 |
| FL | 25 | Diaz-Balart | (R) | R+ 5.0 | R+ 4.5 | D+ 0.5 |
| GA | 1 | Kingston | (R) | R+ 13.5 | R+ 16.0 | R+ 2.5 |
| GA | 2 | Bishop | (D) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 0.8 | R+ 0.7 |
| GA | 3 | Westmoreland | (R) | R+ 18.4 | R+ 18.9 | R+ 0.5 |
| GA | 4 | Johnson | (D) | D+ 21.3 | D+ 24.1 | D+ 2.8 |
| GA | 5 | Lewis | (D) | D+ 24.0 | D+ 25.7 | D+ 1.7 |
| GA | 6 | Price | (R) | R+ 18.9 | R+ 17.9 | D+ 1.0 |
| GA | 7 | Linder | (R) | R+ 19.0 | R+ 16.5 | D+ 2.5 |
| GA | 8 | Marshall | (D) | R+ 9.0 | R+ 10.0 | R+ 1.0 |
| GA | 9 | Deal | (R) | R+ 23.5 | R+ 27.6 | R+ 4.1 |
| GA | 10 | Broun | (R) | R+ 13.5 | R+ 14.5 | R+ 1.0 |
| GA | 11 | Gingrey | (R) | R+ 17.7 | R+ 20.1 | R+ 2.4 |
| GA | 12 | Barrow | (D) | D+ 1.2 | D+ 0.8 | R+ 0.4 |
| GA | 13 | Scott | (D) | D+ 9.0 | D+ 14.6 | D+ 5.7 |
| HI | 1 | Abercrombie | (D) | D+ 6.2 | D+ 11.0 | D+ 4.8 |
| HI | 2 | Hirono | (D) | D+ 8.9 | D+ 14.0 | D+ 5.1 |
| IA | 1 | Braley | (D) | D+ 4.1 | D+ 4.8 | D+ 0.8 |
| IA | 2 | Loebsack | (D) | D+ 5.9 | D+ 7.2 | D+ 1.3 |
| IA | 3 | Boswell | (D) | D+ 0.7 | D+ 1.3 | D+ 0.6 |
| IA | 4 | Latham | (R) | R+ 0.5 | D+ 0.1 | D+ 0.6 |
| IA | 5 | King | (R) | R+ 9.2 | R+ 9.1 | D+ 0.1 |
| ID | 1 | Minnick | (D) | R+ 19.8 | R+ 17.7 | D+ 2.1 |
| ID | 2 | Simpson | (R) | R+ 19.6 | R+ 17.5 | D+ 2.1 |
| IL | 1 | Rush | (D) | D+ 34.0 | D+ 33.8 | R+ 0.2 |
| IL | 2 | Jackson | (D) | D+ 34.0 | D+ 35.8 | D+ 1.8 |
| IL | 3 | Lipinski | (D) | D+ 9.6 | D+ 10.6 | D+ 1.0 |
| IL | 4 | Gutierrez | (D) | D+ 29.9 | D+ 31.6 | D+ 1.8 |
| IL | 5 | (D) | D+ 17.0 | D+ 19.1 | D+ 2.2 | |
| IL | 6 | Roskam | (R) | R+ 3.3 | D+ 0.6 | D+ 3.9 |
| IL | 7 | Davis | (D) | D+ 33.9 | D+ 34.3 | D+ 0.4 |
| IL | 8 | Bean | (D) | R+ 6.1 | R+ 0.9 | D+ 5.1 |
| IL | 9 | Schakowsky | (D) | D+ 18.7 | D+ 19.5 | D+ 0.8 |
| IL | 10 | Kirk | (R) | D+ 3.0 | D+ 6.1 | D+ 3.1 |
| IL | 11 | Halvorson | (D) | R+ 1.8 | R+ 0.9 | D+ 0.8 |
| IL | 12 | Costello | (D) | D+ 4.3 | D+ 2.3 | R+ 2.0 |
| IL | 13 | Biggert | (R) | R+ 5.4 | R+ 1.4 | D+ 3.9 |
| IL | 14 | Foster | (D) | R+ 5.1 | R+ 1.2 | D+ 3.9 |
| IL | 15 | Johnson | (R) | R+ 6.8 | R+ 6.2 | D+ 0.6 |
| IL | 16 | Manzullo | (R) | R+ 5.1 | R+ 2.0 | D+ 3.2 |
| IL | 17 | Hare | (D) | D+ 3.8 | D+ 3.1 | R+ 0.7 |
| IL | 18 | Schock | (R) | R+ 6.1 | R+ 5.7 | D+ 0.3 |
| IL | 19 | Shimkus | (R) | R+ 8.9 | R+ 9.3 | R+ 0.4 |
| IN | 1 | Visclosky | (D) | D+ 6.8 | D+ 7.9 | D+ 1.0 |
| IN | 2 | Donnelly | (D) | R+ 4.8 | R+ 2.2 | D+ 2.6 |
| IN | 3 | Souder | (R) | R+ 17.2 | R+ 13.8 | D+ 3.3 |
| IN | 4 | Buyer | (R) | R+ 18.0 | R+ 14.4 | D+ 3.7 |
| IN | 5 | Burton | (R) | R+ 20.2 | R+ 16.9 | D+ 3.3 |
| IN | 6 | Pence | (R) | R+ 11.6 | R+ 10.3 | D+ 1.3 |
| IN | 7 | Carson | (D) | D+ 7.8 | D+ 13.6 | D+ 5.9 |
| IN | 8 | Ellsworth | (D) | R+ 9.3 | R+ 8.2 | D+ 1.1 |
| IN | 9 | Hill | (D) | R+ 7.9 | R+ 6.3 | D+ 1.6 |
| KS | 1 | Moran | (R) | R+ 21.1 | R+ 22.8 | R+ 1.7 |
| KS | 2 | Jenkins | (R) | R+ 8.0 | R+ 9.4 | R+ 1.3 |
| KS | 3 | Moore | (D) | R+ 5.2 | R+ 3.2 | D+ 1.9 |
| KS | 4 | Tiahrt | (R) | R+ 12.9 | R+ 13.5 | R+ 0.6 |
| KY | 1 | Whitfield | (R) | R+ 10.9 | R+ 14.4 | R+ 3.4 |
| KY | 2 | Guthrie | (R) | R+ 13.7 | R+ 14.9 | R+ 1.2 |
| KY | 3 | Yarmuth | (D) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 2.6 | D+ 1.1 |
| KY | 4 | Davis | (R) | R+ 12.5 | R+ 13.6 | R+ 1.2 |
| KY | 5 | Rogers | (R) | R+ 8.8 | R+ 15.9 | R+ 7.1 |
| KY | 6 | Chandler | (D) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 8.6 | R+ 1.2 |
| LA | 1 | Scalise | (R) | R+ 19.6 | R+ 23.9 | R+ 4.4 |
| LA | 2 | Cao | (R) | D+ 27.1 | D+ 24.0 | R+ 3.1 |
| LA | 3 | Melancon | (D) | R+ 5.6 | R+ 11.6 | R+ 6.0 |
| LA | 4 | Fleming | (R) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 10.8 | R+ 3.4 |
| LA | 5 | Alexander | (R) | R+ 10.2 | R+ 13.8 | R+ 3.6 |
| LA | 6 | Cassidy | (R) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 10.1 | R+ 2.7 |
| LA | 7 | Boustany | (R) | R+ 8.2 | R+ 13.7 | R+ 5.5 |
| MA | 1 | Olver | (D) | D+ 14.1 | D+ 13.6 | R+ 0.5 |
| MA | 2 | Neal | (D) | D+ 11.5 | D+ 8.7 | R+ 2.8 |
| MA | 3 | McGovern | (D) | D+ 11.7 | D+ 8.7 | R+ 3.0 |
| MA | 4 | Frank | (D) | D+ 18.2 | D+ 14.3 | R+ 4.0 |
| MA | 5 | Tsongas | (D) | D+ 10.2 | D+ 8.0 | R+ 2.3 |
| MA | 6 | Tierney | (D) | D+ 10.4 | D+ 7.4 | R+ 3.1 |
| MA | 7 | Markey | (D) | D+ 18.2 | D+ 15.3 | R+ 3.0 |
| MA | 8 | Capuano | (D) | D+ 32.3 | D+ 32.1 | R+ 0.2 |
| MA | 9 | Lynch | (D) | D+ 14.6 | D+ 10.9 | R+ 3.7 |
| MA | 10 | Delahunt | (D) | D+ 7.8 | D+ 4.8 | R+ 3.0 |
| MD | 1 | Kratovil | (D) | R+ 10.5 | R+ 12.4 | R+ 1.9 |
| MD | 2 | Ruppersberger | (D) | D+ 6.8 | D+ 6.7 | R+ 0.2 |
| MD | 3 | Sarbanes | (D) | D+ 6.4 | D+ 6.2 | R+ 0.3 |
| MD | 4 | Edwards | (D) | D+ 29.2 | D+ 31.1 | D+ 1.9 |
| MD | 5 | Hoyer | (D) | D+ 8.4 | D+ 10.7 | D+ 2.4 |
| MD | 6 | Bartlett | (R) | R+ 13.8 | R+ 13.6 | D+ 0.1 |
| MD | 7 | Cummings | (D) | D+ 24.6 | D+ 25.5 | D+ 0.9 |
| MD | 8 | Van Hollen | (D) | D+ 19.4 | D+ 21.0 | D+ 1.6 |
| ME | 1 | Pingree | (D) | D+ 5.4 | D+ 7.7 | D+ 2.2 |
| ME | 2 | Michaud | (D) | D+ 2.8 | D+ 3.4 | D+ 0.5 |
| MI | 1 | Stupak | (D) | R+ 3.1 | R+ 2.5 | D+ 0.6 |
| MI | 2 | Hoekstra | (R) | R+ 10.2 | R+ 7.3 | D+ 2.9 |
| MI | 3 | Ehlers | (R) | R+ 9.9 | R+ 6.0 | D+ 3.9 |
| MI | 4 | Camp | (R) | R+ 4.8 | R+ 3.5 | D+ 1.4 |
| MI | 5 | Kildee | (D) | D+ 11.1 | D+ 10.6 | R+ 0.5 |
| MI | 6 | Upton | (R) | R+ 3.1 | R+ 0.7 | D+ 2.4 |
| MI | 7 | Schauer | (D) | R+ 3.1 | R+ 2.0 | D+ 1.1 |
| MI | 8 | Rogers | (R) | R+ 2.8 | R+ 1.7 | D+ 1.1 |
| MI | 9 | Peters | (D) | R+ 1.0 | D+ 1.6 | D+ 2.6 |
| MI | 10 | Miller | (R) | R+ 5.1 | R+ 5.2 | R+ 0.2 |
| MI | 11 | McCotter | (R) | R+ 2.0 | R+ 0.4 | D+ 1.6 |
| MI | 12 | Levin | (D) | D+ 12.1 | D+ 12.4 | D+ 0.3 |
| MI | 13 | Kilpatrick | (D) | D+ 31.4 | D+ 31.8 | D+ 0.4 |
| MI | 14 | Conyers | (D) | D+ 32.9 | D+ 33.3 | D+ 0.4 |
| MI | 15 | Dingell | (D) | D+ 12.1 | D+ 13.1 | D+ 1.0 |
| MN | 1 | Walz | (D) | R+ 1.6 | R+ 1.2 | D+ 0.4 |
| MN | 2 | Kline | (R) | R+ 3.6 | R+ 4.0 | R+ 0.4 |
| MN | 3 | Paulsen | (R) | R+ 1.3 | R+ 0.4 | D+ 0.9 |
| MN | 4 | McCollum | (D) | D+ 12.1 | D+ 12.7 | D+ 0.6 |
| MN | 5 | Ellison | (D) | D+ 20.6 | D+ 22.4 | D+ 1.8 |
| MN | 6 | Bachmann | (R) | R+ 6.0 | R+ 7.0 | R+ 1.1 |
| MN | 7 | Peterson | (D) | R+ 6.3 | R+ 5.1 | D+ 1.2 |
| MN | 8 | Oberstar | (D) | D+ 3.6 | D+ 2.6 | R+ 1.0 |
| MO | 1 | Clay | (D) | D+ 24.7 | D+ 26.7 | D+ 2.0 |
| MO | 2 | Akin | (R) | R+ 9.6 | R+ 9.0 | D+ 0.6 |
| MO | 3 | Carnahan | (D) | D+ 6.8 | D+ 7.6 | D+ 0.8 |
| MO | 4 | Skelton | (D) | R+ 11.4 | R+ 14.4 | R+ 2.9 |
| MO | 5 | Cleaver | (D) | D+ 11.2 | D+ 10.9 | R+ 0.3 |
| MO | 6 | Graves | (R) | R+ 5.6 | R+ 7.3 | R+ 1.7 |
| MO | 7 | Blunt | (R) | R+ 15.0 | R+ 17.2 | R+ 2.2 |
| MO | 8 | Emerson | (R) | R+ 11.6 | R+ 14.9 | R+ 3.2 |
| MO | 9 | Luetkemeyer | (R) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 8.5 | R+ 1.1 |
| MS | 1 | Childers | (D) | R+ 10.6 | R+ 13.5 | R+ 2.9 |
| MS | 2 | Thompson | (D) | D+ 9.4 | D+ 11.6 | D+ 2.2 |
| MS | 3 | Harper | (R) | R+ 14.7 | R+ 15.0 | R+ 0.4 |
| MS | 4 | Taylor | (D) | R+ 17.0 | R+ 19.6 | R+ 2.5 |
| MT | AL | Rehberg | (R) | R+ 11.5 | R+ 6.8 | D+ 4.6 |
| NC | 1 | Butterfield | (D) | D+ 8.1 | D+ 8.9 | D+ 0.8 |
| NC | 2 | Etheridge | (D) | R+ 3.3 | R+ 2.0 | D+ 1.3 |
| NC | 3 | Jones | (R) | R+ 15.8 | R+ 16.0 | R+ 0.2 |
| NC | 4 | Price | (D) | D+ 5.0 | D+ 8.4 | D+ 3.3 |
| NC | 5 | Foxx | (R) | R+ 16.2 | R+ 15.4 | D+ 0.8 |
| NC | 6 | Coble | (R) | R+ 18.2 | R+ 17.9 | D+ 0.3 |
| NC | 7 | McIntyre | (D) | R+ 3.5 | R+ 5.5 | R+ 2.0 |
| NC | 8 | Kissell | (D) | R+ 3.8 | R+ 2.0 | D+ 1.8 |
| NC | 9 | Myrick | (R) | R+ 13.1 | R+ 10.5 | D+ 2.6 |
| NC | 10 | McHenry | (R) | R+ 15.8 | R+ 16.5 | R+ 0.7 |
| NC | 11 | Shuler | (D) | R+ 7.6 | R+ 6.0 | D+ 1.6 |
| NC | 12 | Watt | (D) | D+ 10.8 | D+ 15.6 | D+ 4.9 |
| NC | 13 | Miller | (D) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 4.8 | D+ 3.3 |
| ND | AL | Pomeroy | (D) | R+ 13.8 | R+ 10.1 | D+ 3.7 |
| NE | 1 | Fortenberry | (R) | R+ 12.4 | R+ 10.6 | D+ 1.8 |
| NE | 2 | Terry | (R) | R+ 9.8 | R+ 6.6 | D+ 3.2 |
| NE | 3 | Smith | (R) | R+ 24.4 | R+ 23.9 | D+ 0.4 |
| NH | 1 | Shea-Porter | (D) | R+ 1.1 | R+ 0.5 | D+ 0.6 |
| NH | 2 | Hodes | (D) | D+ 2.0 | D+ 3.3 | D+ 1.3 |
| NJ | 1 | Andrews | (D) | D+ 13.5 | D+ 12.1 | R+ 1.4 |
| NJ | 2 | Lobiondo | (R) | D+ 3.1 | D+ 0.8 | R+ 2.3 |
| NJ | 3 | Adler | (D) | D+ 2.8 | R+ 0.5 | R+ 3.3 |
| NJ | 4 | Smith | (R) | R+ 1.5 | R+ 5.5 | R+ 4.0 |
| NJ | 5 | Garrett | (R) | R+ 4.8 | R+ 7.0 | R+ 2.2 |
| NJ | 6 | Pallone | (D) | D+ 10.8 | D+ 7.6 | R+ 3.2 |
| NJ | 7 | Lance | (R) | R+ 1.3 | R+ 2.0 | R+ 0.7 |
| NJ | 8 | Pascrell | (D) | D+ 10.9 | D+ 10.1 | R+ 0.8 |
| NJ | 9 | Rothman | (D) | D+ 12.5 | D+ 9.1 | R+ 3.4 |
| NJ | 10 | Payne | (D) | D+ 33.4 | D+ 33.3 | R+ 0.1 |
| NJ | 11 | Frelinghuysen | (R) | R+ 6.3 | R+ 7.5 | R+ 1.1 |
| NJ | 12 | Holt | (D) | D+ 6.7 | D+ 5.1 | R+ 1.6 |
| NJ | 13 | Sires | (D) | D+ 22.1 | D+ 21.2 | R+ 0.9 |
| NM | 1 | Heinrich | (D) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 4.5 | D+ 3.0 |
| NM | 2 | Teague | (D) | R+ 6.6 | R+ 5.8 | D+ 0.9 |
| NM | 3 | Lujan | (D) | D+ 5.1 | D+ 6.9 | D+ 1.7 |
| NV | 1 | Berkley | (D) | D+ 8.1 | D+ 10.2 | D+ 2.1 |
| NV | 2 | Heller | (R) | R+ 8.9 | R+ 5.3 | D+ 3.6 |
| NV | 3 | Titus | (D) | D+ 0.5 | D+ 1.6 | D+ 1.1 |
| NY | 1 | Bishop | (D) | D+ 2.6 | R+ 0.2 | R+ 2.8 |
| NY | 2 | Israel | (D) | D+ 7.2 | D+ 4.1 | R+ 3.1 |
| NY | 3 | King | (R) | D+ 1.3 | R+ 3.7 | R+ 5.1 |
| NY | 4 | McCarthy | (D) | D+ 8.7 | D+ 5.9 | R+ 2.8 |
| NY | 5 | Ackerman | (D) | D+ 16.8 | D+ 12.4 | R+ 4.4 |
| NY | 6 | Meeks | (D) | D+ 37.3 | D+ 35.7 | R+ 1.6 |
| NY | 7 | Crowley | (D) | D+ 26.9 | D+ 26.1 | R+ 0.9 |
| NY | 8 | Nadler | (D) | D+ 27.1 | D+ 22.1 | R+ 4.9 |
| NY | 9 | Weiner | (D) | D+ 13.0 | D+ 4.6 | R+ 8.5 |
| NY | 10 | Towns | (D) | D+ 39.8 | D+ 37.7 | R+ 2.0 |
| NY | 11 | Clarke | (D) | D+ 39.0 | D+ 37.7 | R+ 1.3 |
| NY | 12 | Velazquez | (D) | D+ 32.7 | D+ 32.6 | R+ 0.1 |
| NY | 13 | McMahon | (D) | D+ 0.1 | R+ 4.2 | R+ 4.3 |
| NY | 14 | Maloney | (D) | D+ 25.5 | D+ 25.5 | D+ 0.1 |
| NY | 15 | Rangel | (D) | D+ 42.2 | D+ 41.2 | R+ 1.0 |
| NY | 16 | Serrano | (D) | D+ 42.9 | D+ 41.2 | R+ 1.6 |
| NY | 17 | Engel | (D) | D+ 19.9 | D+ 18.3 | R+ 1.6 |
| NY | 18 | Lowey | (D) | D+ 9.4 | D+ 8.8 | R+ 0.6 |
| NY | 19 | Hall | (D) | R+ 2.3 | R+ 2.7 | R+ 0.4 |
| NY | 20 | (D) | R+ 3.4 | R+ 2.5 | D+ 0.9 | |
| NY | 21 | Tonko | (D) | D+ 8.0 | D+ 6.4 | R+ 1.6 |
| NY | 22 | Hinchey | (D) | D+ 5.2 | D+ 6.2 | D+ 1.0 |
| NY | 23 | McHugh | (R) | R+ 1.1 | R+ 1.0 | D+ 0.1 |
| NY | 24 | Arcuri | (D) | R+ 1.3 | R+ 2.0 | R+ 0.7 |
| NY | 25 | Maffei | (D) | D+ 2.6 | D+ 2.6 | D+ 0.0 |
| NY | 26 | Lee | (R) | R+ 4.4 | R+ 5.8 | R+ 1.4 |
| NY | 27 | Higgins | (D) | D+ 5.7 | D+ 3.4 | R+ 2.3 |
| NY | 28 | Slaughter | (D) | D+ 13.9 | D+ 15.4 | D+ 1.6 |
| NY | 29 | Massa | (D) | R+ 5.7 | R+ 5.5 | D+ 0.1 |
| OH | 1 | Driehaus | (D) | R+ 1.3 | D+ 1.1 | D+ 2.4 |
| OH | 2 | Schmidt | (R) | R+ 14.0 | R+ 13.0 | D+ 1.0 |
| OH | 3 | Turner | (R) | R+ 3.3 | R+ 4.2 | R+ 0.9 |
| OH | 4 | Jordan | (R) | R+ 14.3 | R+ 14.7 | R+ 0.4 |
| OH | 5 | Latta | (R) | R+ 10.7 | R+ 8.8 | D+ 2.0 |
| OH | 6 | Wilson | (D) | R+ 0.5 | R+ 2.2 | R+ 1.7 |
| OH | 7 | Austria | (R) | R+ 6.6 | R+ 7.0 | R+ 0.4 |
| OH | 8 | Boehner | (R) | R+ 13.3 | R+ 14.2 | R+ 0.9 |
| OH | 9 | Kaptur | (D) | D+ 8.1 | D+ 9.4 | D+ 1.3 |
| OH | 10 | Kucinich | (D) | D+ 7.7 | D+ 8.2 | D+ 0.5 |
| OH | 11 | Fudge | (D) | D+ 32.1 | D+ 32.6 | D+ 0.5 |
| OH | 12 | Tiberi | (R) | R+ 1.5 | D+ 0.0 | D+ 1.6 |
| OH | 13 | Sutton | (D) | D+ 5.8 | D+ 5.6 | R+ 0.2 |
| OH | 14 | LaTourette | (R) | R+ 3.1 | R+ 2.7 | D+ 0.4 |
| OH | 15 | Kilroy | (D) | R+ 1.6 | D+ 1.1 | D+ 2.6 |
| OH | 16 | Boccieri | (D) | R+ 4.4 | R+ 3.7 | D+ 0.7 |
| OH | 17 | Ryan | (D) | D+ 13.6 | D+ 11.9 | R+ 1.7 |
| OH | 18 | Space | (D) | R+ 6.7 | R+ 6.5 | D+ 0.1 |
| OK | 1 | Sullivan | (R) | R+ 13.3 | R+ 15.7 | R+ 2.4 |
| OK | 2 | Boren | (D) | R+ 5.3 | R+ 13.7 | R+ 8.4 |
| OK | 3 | Lucas | (R) | R+ 18.3 | R+ 23.7 | R+ 5.4 |
| OK | 4 | Cole | (R) | R+ 13.8 | R+ 17.7 | R+ 3.9 |
| OK | 5 | Fallin | (R) | R+ 12.5 | R+ 12.7 | R+ 0.2 |
| OR | 1 | Wu | (D) | D+ 4.9 | D+ 8.0 | D+ 3.1 |
| OR | 2 | Walden | (R) | R+ 11.9 | R+ 9.9 | D+ 2.0 |
| OR | 3 | Blumenauer | (D) | D+ 16.8 | D+ 18.9 | D+ 2.1 |
| OR | 4 | Defazio | (D) | R+ 0.9 | D+ 1.6 | D+ 2.5 |
| OR | 5 | Schrader | (D) | R+ 0.0 | D+ 1.4 | D+ 1.4 |
| PA | 1 | Brady | (D) | D+ 35.3 | D+ 35.2 | R+ 0.1 |
| PA | 2 | Fattah | (D) | D+ 38.4 | D+ 37.7 | R+ 0.6 |
| PA | 3 | Dahlkemper | (D) | R+ 2.0 | R+ 2.7 | R+ 0.7 |
| PA | 4 | Altmire | (D) | R+ 3.3 | R+ 6.3 | R+ 3.0 |
| PA | 5 | Thompson | (R) | R+ 10.4 | R+ 9.5 | D+ 0.9 |
| PA | 6 | Gerlach | (R) | D+ 1.5 | D+ 4.1 | D+ 2.6 |
| PA | 7 | Sestak | (D) | D+ 3.0 | D+ 3.6 | D+ 0.6 |
| PA | 8 | Murphy | (D) | D+ 2.5 | D+ 1.8 | R+ 0.7 |
| PA | 9 | Shuster | (R) | R+ 15.7 | R+ 16.9 | R+ 1.2 |
| PA | 10 | Carney | (D) | R+ 8.4 | R+ 8.5 | R+ 0.1 |
| PA | 11 | Kanjorski | (D) | D+ 4.8 | D+ 4.1 | R+ 0.8 |
| PA | 12 | Murtha | (D) | D+ 3.8 | R+ 1.0 | R+ 4.7 |
| PA | 13 | Schwartz | (D) | D+ 7.3 | D+ 6.6 | R+ 0.8 |
| PA | 14 | Doyle | (D) | D+ 21.1 | D+ 19.0 | R+ 2.1 |
| PA | 15 | Dent | (R) | D+ 0.7 | D+ 2.1 | D+ 1.3 |
| PA | 16 | Pitts | (R) | R+ 12.0 | R+ 7.8 | D+ 4.2 |
| PA | 17 | Holden | (D) | R+ 7.4 | R+ 6.0 | D+ 1.4 |
| PA | 18 | Murphy | (R) | R+ 2.8 | R+ 6.0 | R+ 3.2 |
| PA | 19 | Platts | (R) | R+ 13.0 | R+ 11.5 | D+ 1.5 |
| RI | 1 | Kennedy | (D) | D+ 15.6 | D+ 13.6 | R+ 2.1 |
| RI | 2 | Langevin | (D) | D+ 11.8 | D+ 9.0 | R+ 2.8 |
| SC | 1 | Brown | (R) | R+ 10.4 | R+ 10.5 | R+ 0.1 |
| SC | 2 | Wilson | (R) | R+ 9.7 | R+ 8.8 | D+ 0.9 |
| SC | 3 | Barrett | (R) | R+ 14.7 | R+ 16.5 | R+ 1.9 |
| SC | 4 | Inglis | (R) | R+ 15.3 | R+ 14.7 | D+ 0.7 |
| SC | 5 | Spratt | (D) | R+ 6.4 | R+ 6.8 | R+ 0.4 |
| SC | 6 | Clyburn | (D) | D+ 10.6 | D+ 11.6 | D+ 1.0 |
| SD | AL | Herseth | (D) | R+ 10.7 | R+ 8.9 | D+ 1.9 |
| TN | 1 | Roe | (R) | R+ 14.7 | R+ 20.9 | R+ 6.3 |
| TN | 2 | Duncan | (R) | R+ 11.9 | R+ 16.2 | R+ 4.3 |
| TN | 3 | Wamp | (R) | R+ 9.4 | R+ 13.3 | R+ 3.9 |
| TN | 4 | Davis | (D) | R+ 4.1 | R+ 13.2 | R+ 9.1 |
| TN | 5 | Cooper | (D) | D+ 5.3 | D+ 3.1 | R+ 2.2 |
| TN | 6 | Gordon | (D) | R+ 4.5 | R+ 12.5 | R+ 8.0 |
| TN | 7 | Blackburn | (R) | R+ 12.6 | R+ 17.4 | R+ 4.7 |
| TN | 8 | Tanner | (D) | R+ 0.3 | R+ 6.0 | R+ 5.7 |
| TN | 9 | Cohen | (D) | D+ 17.3 | D+ 22.7 | D+ 5.4 |
| TX | 1 | Gohmert | (R) | R+ 17.7 | R+ 20.2 | R+ 2.5 |
| TX | 2 | Poe | (R) | R+ 12.5 | R+ 12.7 | R+ 0.2 |
| TX | 3 | Johnson | (R) | R+ 18.0 | R+ 13.5 | D+ 4.5 |
| TX | 4 | Hall | (R) | R+ 17.5 | R+ 21.1 | R+ 3.6 |
| TX | 5 | Hensarling | (R) | R+ 16.0 | R+ 16.5 | R+ 0.5 |
| TX | 6 | Barton | (R) | R+ 15.5 | R+ 14.2 | D+ 1.3 |
| TX | 7 | Culberson | (R) | R+ 16.0 | R+ 12.5 | D+ 3.5 |
| TX | 8 | Brady | (R) | R+ 20.0 | R+ 24.2 | R+ 4.2 |
| TX | 9 | Green | (D) | D+ 20.0 | D+ 22.3 | D+ 2.3 |
| TX | 10 | McCaul | (R) | R+ 13.7 | R+ 10.0 | D+ 3.7 |
| TX | 11 | Conaway | (R) | R+ 26.0 | R+ 28.2 | R+ 2.2 |
| TX | 12 | Granger | (R) | R+ 15.0 | R+ 16.5 | R+ 1.5 |
| TX | 13 | Thornberry | (R) | R+ 25.5 | R+ 28.7 | R+ 3.2 |
| TX | 14 | Paul | (R) | R+ 15.0 | R+ 18.1 | R+ 3.0 |
| TX | 15 | Hinojosa | (D) | D+ 2.0 | D+ 3.3 | D+ 1.3 |
| TX | 16 | Reyes | (D) | D+ 8.2 | D+ 10.0 | D+ 1.8 |
| TX | 17 | Edwards | (D) | R+ 18.5 | R+ 20.1 | R+ 1.5 |
| TX | 18 | Jackson-Lee | (D) | D+ 22.5 | D+ 23.7 | D+ 1.2 |
| TX | 19 | Neugebauer | (R) | R+ 25.5 | R+ 26.1 | R+ 0.6 |
| TX | 20 | Gonzalez | (D) | D+ 7.0 | D+ 8.1 | D+ 1.1 |
| TX | 21 | Smith | (R) | R+ 17.0 | R+ 13.5 | D+ 3.5 |
| TX | 22 | Olson | (R) | R+ 15.0 | R+ 12.5 | D+ 2.5 |
| TX | 23 | Rodriguez | (D) | R+ 4.7 | R+ 4.0 | D+ 0.8 |
| TX | 24 | Marchant | (R) | R+ 16.0 | R+ 11.5 | D+ 4.5 |
| TX | 25 | Doggett | (D) | D+ 1.0 | D+ 5.6 | D+ 4.6 |
| TX | 26 | Burgess | (R) | R+ 13.0 | R+ 13.0 | R+ 0.0 |
| TX | 27 | Ortiz | (D) | R+ 2.0 | R+ 2.0 | D+ 0.1 |
| TX | 28 | Cuellar | (D) | R+ 1.5 | R+ 0.2 | D+ 1.3 |
| TX | 29 | Green | (D) | D+ 7.0 | D+ 7.8 | D+ 0.8 |
| TX | 30 | Johnson | (D) | D+ 25.0 | D+ 27.3 | D+ 2.3 |
| TX | 31 | Carter | (R) | R+ 17.2 | R+ 13.7 | D+ 3.5 |
| TX | 32 | Sessions | (R) | R+ 11.5 | R+ 8.0 | D+ 3.5 |
| UT | 1 | Bishop | (R) | R+ 22.5 | R+ 21.5 | D+ 1.1 |
| UT | 2 | Matheson | (D) | R+ 17.7 | R+ 14.9 | D+ 2.8 |
| UT | 3 | Chaffetz | (R) | R+ 27.1 | R+ 25.8 | D+ 1.3 |
| VA | 1 | Wittman | (R) | R+ 9.7 | R+ 7.3 | D+ 2.4 |
| VA | 2 | Nye | (D) | R+ 6.6 | R+ 4.7 | D+ 1.9 |
| VA | 3 | Scott | (D) | D+ 17.5 | D+ 20.1 | D+ 2.6 |
| VA | 4 | Forbes | (R) | R+ 5.6 | R+ 4.5 | D+ 1.1 |
| VA | 5 | Perriello | (D) | R+ 6.4 | R+ 5.3 | D+ 1.2 |
| VA | 6 | Goodlatte | (R) | R+ 12.3 | R+ 11.8 | D+ 0.4 |
| VA | 7 | Cantor | (R) | R+ 11.4 | R+ 8.8 | D+ 2.6 |
| VA | 8 | Moran | (D) | D+ 12.8 | D+ 16.0 | D+ 3.1 |
| VA | 9 | Boucher | (D) | R+ 8.2 | R+ 11.3 | R+ 3.2 |
| VA | 10 | Wolf | (R) | R+ 6.2 | R+ 2.2 | D+ 3.9 |
| VA | 11 | Connolly | (D) | R+ 1.6 | D+ 2.3 | D+ 3.9 |
| VT | AL | Welch | (D) | D+ 8.3 | D+ 13.2 | D+ 4.9 |
| WA | 1 | Inslee | (D) | D+ 7.0 | D+ 9.0 | D+ 2.0 |
| WA | 2 | Larsen | (D) | D+ 2.0 | D+ 3.4 | D+ 1.3 |
| WA | 3 | Baird | (D) | R+ 0.6 | R+ 0.2 | D+ 0.4 |
| WA | 4 | Hastings | (R) | R+ 13.9 | R+ 13.0 | D+ 1.0 |
| WA | 5 | McMorris | (R) | R+ 7.8 | R+ 6.8 | D+ 0.9 |
| WA | 6 | Dicks | (D) | D+ 4.9 | D+ 4.9 | D+ 0.0 |
| WA | 7 | McDermott | (D) | D+ 29.5 | D+ 31.5 | D+ 2.0 |
| WA | 8 | Reichert | (R) | D+ 1.8 | D+ 3.3 | D+ 1.6 |
| WA | 9 | Smith | (D) | D+ 4.9 | D+ 5.3 | D+ 0.5 |
| WI | 1 | Ryan | (R) | R+ 3.1 | R+ 2.5 | D+ 0.6 |
| WI | 2 | Baldwin | (D) | D+ 12.7 | D+ 14.9 | D+ 2.3 |
| WI | 3 | Kind | (D) | D+ 2.0 | D+ 3.8 | D+ 1.8 |
| WI | 4 | Moore | (D) | D+ 19.9 | D+ 21.7 | D+ 1.8 |
| WI | 5 | Sensenbrenner | (R) | R+ 13.3 | R+ 12.3 | D+ 1.0 |
| WI | 6 | Petri | (R) | R+ 5.7 | R+ 4.2 | D+ 1.4 |
| WI | 7 | Obey | (D) | D+ 1.0 | D+ 2.3 | D+ 1.3 |
| WI | 8 | Kagen | (D) | R+ 4.7 | R+ 1.7 | D+ 2.9 |
| WV | 1 | Mollohan | (D) | R+ 6.3 | R+ 9.0 | R+ 2.7 |
| WV | 2 | Capito | (R) | R+ 5.9 | R+ 7.8 | R+ 1.9 |
| WV | 3 | Rahall | (D) | R+ 0.3 | R+ 6.6 | R+ 6.3 |
| WY | AL | Lummis | (R) | R+ 20.3 | R+ 19.6 | D+ 0.7 |
I like these numbers a lot more. Just from intuitiveness and looking at my own state, the numbers make a lot more sense than Cook’s.
MN-6 as a R+9.5 No way, that is why Bachmann almost got beat in 08, she doesn’t represent a district that is as wing-nut crazy as she is. SPVI R+7 makes a lot more sense.
Same with MN-3, which now got more Democratic instead of Republican, which is mzkes sense since the district has gotten more Democratic than Republican.
Yup, I really hope Cook reads this, his system is just simply flawed.
In like the quick links section or such?
Also, can someone calculate the 2008-only and 2004-only PVIs (like, without averaging two years)?
That’s a lot of work, and it looks good. I tip my hat to you, sicembears.
AK AL Young (R) R+ 14.9 R+ 13.1 D+ 1.8
AL 2 Bright (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 16.5 R+ 2.7
AL 5 Griffith (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 12.3 R+ 5.0
DE AL Castle (R) D+ 5.6 D+ 6.9 D+ 1.3
GA 8 Marshall (D) R+ 9.0 R+ 10.0 R+ 1.0
ID 1 Minnick (D) R+ 19.8 R+ 17.7 D+ 2.1
IL 6 Roskam (R) R+ 3.3 D+ 0.6 D+ 3.9
IL 10 Kirk (R) D+ 3.0 D+ 6.1 D+ 3.1
IL 13 Biggert (R) R+ 5.4 R+ 1.4 D+ 3.9
IL 14 Foster (D) R+ 5.1 R+ 1.2 D+ 3.9
IL 18 Schock (R) R+ 6.1 R+ 5.7 D+ 0.3
LA 2 Cao (R) D+ 27.1 D+ 24.0 R+ 3.1
MD 1 Kratovil (D) R+ 10.5 R+ 12.4 R+ 1.9
MI 11 McCotter (R) R+ 2.0 R+ 0.4 D+ 1.6
MS 1 Childers (D) R+ 10.6 R+ 13.5 R+ 2.9
MS 4 Taylor (D) R+ 17.0 R+ 19.6 R+ 2.5
MT AL Rehberg (R) R+ 11.5 R+ 6.8 D+ 4.6
ND AL Pomeroy (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 10.1 D+ 3.7
OK 2 Boren (D) R+ 5.3 R+ 13.7 R+ 8.4
PA 6 Gerlach (R) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.1 D+ 2.6
PA 12 Murtha (D) D+ 3.8 R+ 1.0 R+ 4.7
SC 1 Brown (R) R+ 10.4 R+ 10.5 R+ 0.1
SD AL Herseth (D) R+ 10.7 R+ 8.9 D+ 1.9
TN 6 Gordon (D) R+ 4.5 R+ 12.5 R+ 8.0
TN 8 Tanner (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.0 R+ 5.7
TX 17 Edwards (D) R+ 18.5 R+ 20.1 R+ 1.5
TX 22 Olson (R) R+ 15.0 R+ 12.5 D+ 2.5
TX 23 Rodriguez (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 4.0 D+ 0.8
UT 2 Matheson (D) R+ 22.5 R+ 21.5 D+ 1.1
VA 2 Nye (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 4.7 D+ 1.9
VA 5 Perriello (D) R+ 6.4 R+ 5.3 D+ 1.2
VA 10 Wolf (R) R+ 6.2 R+ 2.2 D+ 3.9
WA 8 Reichert (R) D+ 1.8 D+ 3.3 D+ 1.6
WI 8 Kagen (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 1.7 D+ 2.9
WY AL Lummis (R) R+ 20.3 R+ 19.6 D+ 0.7
Cao (LA-02) still wins the worst PVI prize (D+24.0), but Matheson (UT-02) is our new champion (R+21.5), followed by Edwards (TX-17) (R+20.1), Taylor (MS-04) (R+19.6), Minnick (ID-01) (R+17.7), and Bright (AL-02) (R+16.5). If Trauner (WY-AL) had won, we’d be holding a second R+19.6 district, but alas, he didn’t.
Boren (OK-02) is next (R+13.7), as OK-02 swung hard right (R+8.4 movement). Childers (MS-01) is at R+13.5, and Senator Begich (AK-Sen(AL)) is at R+13.1. Gordon is next at R+12.5; TN-06 swung hard right (R+8.0 movement) as well (along with TN-08 (R+5.7 movement)). Kratovil is at R+12.4, Griffith is at R+12.3, and Pomeroy (R+10.1) and Marshall (R+10.0).
TX-22 headed our way a tiny bit (D+2.5 movement), but that wasn’t enough to save Lampson; he would have tied with Gordon at R+12.5.
Had Ketner won SC-01, she’d be right above Pomeroy (R+10.5).
In brighter news, though, McCotter’s district is basically falling out from beneath him (R+2.0 to R+0.4). Roskam finally gets a D+ (S)PVI to contend with (R+3.3 to D+0.6), Kirk went from D+3.0 to D+6.1 and now third after Castle (DE-AL, D+6.9) and Cao (D+24.0). Fourth is Gerlach (PA-06) at D+4.1, and fifth is Reichert at D+3.3. It’s rather obvious who’s better at this game. 🙂
The Dakotas became a bit less Republican, and Montana became significantly less Republican.
<
period. thanks sicembears!
Unfortunately that means several of your comment charts are also wrong.
I calculated some SPVIs for myself and get slightly different numbers. Did you use the rounded up district results from the “Presidential Vote by CD” spreadsheet?. That would explain it because I used numbers including the first decimal digits for both 2004 and 2008. (I took the 2004 results from a spreadsheet in a diary by californianintexas. Unfortunately this spreadsheet is now somehow destroyed)
I looked at the Cook and Swigstate PVIs for all 17 Northeast Republicans in the House. That’s a convenient size representing 10% of all Republicans and a higher percentage of vulnerable ones.
All 17 had more Republican districts in 2008 according to Cook’s formula, something that seems unlikely. Under the Swingstate version, 9 had more Republican districts and 8 had more Democratic districts. On the face of it, this seems more likely.
There does seem to be some sorting out going on here. Using SPVI, DE-At Large, PA-6, PA-15 have all become stronger targets for a Democratic pickup, particularly the first two. NJ-2 still leans Dem but by a smaller margin. NY-23 has become slightly more Democratic while NY-3 has moved more Republican. John McHugh’s district (R+1.0) is now the top target in NY (which makes sense, they elected a Democrat to the State Senate).
NJ-5 moves from R+4.8 to R+7.0. That makes sense. Garrett had a decent opponent who was well funded but Republicans managed to stop the continuing drop in Garrett’s share of the vote and pick up 1 point (from 55% to 56%) when neutral observers in NJ expected Garrett to slip to 52 or 53%.
maybe I don’t.
First, thanks for the effort you put into this. After reading all the comments, I decided to test it out with a congressman known to my family. So I looked at NJ-02. In 2004, Kerry took 49% of the vote in the district, while he took 48.3 nationally. In 2008, Obama took 54% of the vote in the district and 52.9% nationally. So voter percentage in the district increased by 5%, while nationally, the Democratic percentage increased by 4.6%. Both in terms of raw percentage and amount of movement, the district outperformed the national numbers, and yet it is given an R+ rating. What exactly is that supposed to be telling me?
I did a test comparison at random of my numbers compared to yours (I used NJ-02, IL-06, FL-10, MI-09 and NJ-03) and came out with results similar to yours (some variances of +/- 0.1%), so I thought I now agreed with the overall formula, but… I then computed the District of Columbia and used the following data:
2000 2004 2008
US Dem % (raw) 48.38 48.26 52.87
US Dem % (factored) 50.26 48.76 53.86
DC Dem % (raw) 85.20 89.20 92.46
DC Dem % (factored) 90.49 90.52 93.40
Using the agreed upon formula, I showed the change from 2004 to 2008 as R+0.3. First off, do you agree with the numbers? If so, is DC becoming a haven of Republicanism right before our very eyes? Clearly, DC votes in numbers that dictators dream of, Obama’s numbers are an improvement on Gore’s numbers all around,….and yet?
So, I am left with my original question, that is, what do these numbers tell us? In plain English, what does R+0.3 mean in the above example?
Please understand, I’m not trying to be contrary, but obviously I am having difficulty understanding the meaning of the resulting numbers.
Also, I apologize for the presentation here. It looks fine when I enter, but the preview makes it turn out bizarre, and I have yet to figure out how to fix it.