NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Disaster Mode for Paterson; Gillibrand Tied with Pataki

Siena College (PDF) (3/16-18, registered voters, Feb. 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 17 (27)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67 (53)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±_._%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 33 (36)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (51)

Undecided: 11 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Brutal. Just brutal. Paterson’s favorables are now at 29-58 – in November, they were 64-19! His job approval is even worse, 17-78, and his re-elects are 14-67. Meanwhile, Cuomo is busy clocking in some of his highest ratings ever – almost the mirror-image of the Governor. He’s even winning African American voters by 55-22. I never imagined I’d say this considering how high he was riding just half a year ago, but it may seriously be time for Paterson to consider not running again.

Siena also tested some Senate nums:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 41

George Pataki (R): 41

Undecided: 18

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 47 (40)

Peter King (R): 23 (27)

Undecided: 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

These aren’t as interesting as they may look. Fifty-four percent of the state has no opinion of Gillibrand, while Pataki has 90% name rec. Plus, I’d be quite surprised if he got in. Gillibrand’s considerable resources will undoubtedly allow her to enhance her statewide profile over the next year.

The full cross-tabs are here (PDF). BigDust also has a post on this poll.

42 thoughts on “NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Disaster Mode for Paterson; Gillibrand Tied with Pataki”

  2. I repeat my plea. Run, David(NYC), Run!

    Having Cuomo wouldn’t be a whole lot better. Hopefully more alternatives will emerge.  

  3. I feared this could happen, picking an upstate candidate was the only way we could possibly lose this seat and Paterson was stupid enough to do it.  I keep hearing people brag about how Gillibrand will get all these additional votes upstate, what they fail to mention is that for every additional vote she wins upstate, she’s likely to lose 2 votes downstate.  If the dynamic of the race is Democrat vs Republican, we’ll likely win, because Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans, but if it’s turned into an upstate vs downstate contest, they could very well win, because downstaters vastly outnumber upstaters.

    Have we learned nothing from the Childers-Davis race in MS-1 and the Kratovil-Harris race in MD-1?  In both those cases the Republicans lost an overwhelmingly Republican district, because they ran a candidate from the wrong part of the district.

    That being said, we only have to be concerned about someone who actually pretends to be moderate, like Giuliani or Pataki.  An openly right-wing candidate like Peter King would be lucky to get 40% of the vote in the general election.

  4. Im surprised Pataki is polling at 41% and even with Gillibrand. As he left office an unpopular Gov. True, not Mitt Romney unpopular but still unpopular. If this were a swing state or if he were a Democrat then ok i can see him being at 41%. But an unpopular Republican ex-Gov. in a deeply blue state?

  6. This is like Frank Murkowski levels of support. Any chance Paterson declines to run for another term?

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