Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/20-22, “Arkansas voters,” no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 48
Gilbert Baker (R): 37
Undecided: 16Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46
Tim Griffin (R): 37
Undecided: 16(MoE: 4%)
State Senator Baker and former US Attorney Griffin are both unknown to over half the state, so these numbers aren’t too impressive for Lincoln. What’s more, her approvals are just 45-40. (Strangely, PPP did not ask for presidential approval ratings.) Still, she has $7 million on hand and will get all the help she needs. And neither of these potential opponents are at anything more than the “rumored” stage yet.
More discussion in Conspiracy’s diary.
(Hat-tip: Political Wire)
UPDATE: My mistake – PPP released Obama ratings yesterday. The President’s job approval is 47-45. Also, Dem Gov. Mike Beebe (up for re-election in 2010) is at 68-20, “the best ratings of any politician PPP has polled on in the entire country over the last year.”
It shows that all Blanche’s attempt at “moderation” are getting her nowhere. I wonder though if this means there’s a right turn in the Arkansas electorate all of a sudden or that perhaps Arkansans are tired of her economic policies that don’t help the state (free trade, the estate tax cut, etc.) I’m willing to bank it’s the later. This state does have a populous streak, but it could be a half dozen other things as well. I hope more polling is done soon, and some one Pryor and Beebe would be nice as well.
“hardright” surge
nope, sorry that’s not what november was. November was the result of Obama not bothering to campaign or target the state a single time in the campaign, not even during the primary. When your opponent has the state to himself it tends to hurt you. Arkansas is a very Democratic state, Obama was just a terrible match for it and didn’t try to win it.
They’re polling the strongest likely Candidate, well known State Senator Gilbert Baker who represents a swingy, (for Arkansas state Democrats), district around Conway. Baker has been minority leader of the State Senate and State Chairman of the Republican Party. Of course he would pretty well known, but he also has had some rough scandals that will hurt him when his poll nubmers become available. Lincoln’s performance right now is pretty good.
I’ll give you a little secret though, Lincoln’s never been as well liked as Pryor, but she’s go incumbency and a powerful position on the Finance committee, plus she’s a strong campaigner and fundraiser. I have no worries about her, neither of those candidates will be able to compete with her. The only candidates who could possibly do so are Huckabee who isn’t running and Asa Hutchinson who also isn’t running.
If she was forced to vote on EFCA it would embolden the opposition, but it now appears that vote is on the backburner until after 2010.
Doesn’t Lincoln usually win by modest 7-10 point margina anyway? Arkansas, like New Jersey just strikes me as one of those “fools gold” states for the GOP like New Jersey is.
a much more informative discussion is going on on the original thread, done mostly by the people here intimately familiar with Arkansas politics.
I know this PPP poll must be a little screwy though if Beebe’s approval’s are 68-20. The lowest I’ve seen them is at 77% and several in the 80s.
And I know that this is not going to happen, but if she does get into trouble I hope the DSCC doesn’t waste any money on her. She can go to her friends at Walmart for all the money she needs.
Get Huey Long to spend nine days campaigning, and she’ll win by the biggest margin imaginable.
Just a check to see if any other SSPers are as fascinated with Huey Long as I am…