SSP’s Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Initial Ratings for 2009-10

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of gubernatorial race ratings for the 2009-10 election cycle:

Races to Watch:

     AK (Palin)

     CT (Rell)

     FL (Crist)

     MA (Patrick)

     NY (Paterson)

     TX (Perry)

What follows are brief explanations of our initial ratings, including the “safe” races not listed above, in alphabetical order. DavidNYC, James L. and Crisitunity all contributed to this post – our individual contributions are noted for each entry. A permalink to our ratings is available in the right-hand sidebar and can also be found here.

Alabama – Bob Riley (OPEN) (R): Likely R

The good news for Alabama Democrats is that they’ll have their first real crack at the Governor’s mansion in eight years now that Bob Riley is term-limited out of the state’s top job. The bad news is that they’ll have to deal with a complicated primary in the meantime. Birmingham-area Rep. Artur Davis will face off with state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks for the Democratic nod, and controversial northern Alabama state Sen. Roger Bedford is actively mulling the race. For the GOP, Bradley Byrne, the chairman of the state’s two-year college system with a reform-minded reputation, appears to have the inside track for the nomination, but several other candidates (including the infamous “Ten Commandments Judge” Roy Moore and beleaguered Treasurer Kay Ivey) are also weighing bids.

Much depends on the outcome of the GOP and Dem primaries, but the Republican field has earned the benefit of the doubt in this 60% McCain state while we wait to see if either Sparks or Davis can catch fire. (J)

Alaska – Sarah Palin (R): RTW

While this seat is unlikely to fall into Democratic hands, Sarah Palin has yet to announce her election plans for 2010 – or 2012, for that matter. Even if she does take a stab at a second term, her impressive ability to alienate people could invite a primary challenge from within the AK GOP. Probably not a barn-burner, but one to keep an eye on nonetheless. (D)

Arizona – Jan Brewer (R): Lean R

Had Janet Napolitano served out her term, this seat probably would have been a pure tossup. But Napolitano’s departure to head Homeland Security gives Brewer (the former Secretary of State) a couple years of incumbency to solidify her situation, and the advantage heading into 2010. (D)

Arkansas – Mike Beebe (D): Safe D

Beebe seems pretty untouchable and the Republicans have almost no bench in this state. A recent PPP poll found his approvals at 68-20, with the pollster describing those numbers as the highest they’ve seen for any politician nationwide in the last year. (D)

California – Arnold Schwarzenegger (OPEN) (R): Lean D

An open seat in increasingly-blue California gives the Democrats one of their top pickup opportunities. With crowded fields in both the Democratic primary (AG and ex-governor Jerry Brown, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa) and the Republican primary (eBay ex-CEO Meg Whitman, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell), it’s hard to predict who faces off in November. But preliminary polling shows Dems winning comfortably in any configuration. (C)

Colorado – Bill Ritter (D): Lean D

Democrat Bill Ritter is fairly popular and trying for a second term. Nevertheless, the governor’s race seems to be more interesting to the Colorado GOP than the senate seat of appointee Michael Bennet. They may be on to something; ex-Rep. Scott McInnis is the highest-profile Republican considering the race, and he actually led Ritter in a recent PPP poll. Up-and-coming state senator Josh Penry may also get in for the GOP. (C)

Connecticut – Jodi Rell (R): RTW

Like Sarah Palin, Jodi Rell hasn’t formally announced if she’ll seek another term. If she does run again, it’s lights out for the Dems. If for some reason she bails (she’s 62), the open seat would draw a lot of interest and would lean toward Team Blue. (D)

Florida – Charlie Crist (R): RTW

Barring extraordinary circumstances, if Charlie Crist runs for another term, he wins. But if he decides to run for Senate instead, Florida may host one of the most hotly-contested gubernatorial races of 2010 – especially if Democratic CFO Alex Sink runs. (J)

Georgia – Sonny Perdue (OPEN) (R): Likely R

Democrats have already drawn a pair of credible candidates for this race in Attorney General Thurbert Baker and state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, with ex-Gov. Roy Barnes also waiting in the wings. But despite Barack Obama’s impressive performance here in 2008, Democrats have been dropping like flies at the statewide level in Georgia since 2002, and anyone nominated here will have to run an impressive race in order to overcome the state’s friendliness toward the GOP brand.

Republicans have a crowded primary of their own, with both Secretary of State Karen Handel and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine in the mix. Democrats received a minor lift here with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle’s surprise decision to seek re-election, and this race has a lot of potential to slide toward the competitive column if the Democratic primary can stay clean. (J)

Hawaii – Linda Lingle (OPEN) (R): Lean D

Lingle is term-limited and there are almost no Republicans in Hawaii, period. (The state Senate is 23-2 Dem – not a typo.) Republican Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona filed paperwork almost two years ago, but who knows if he’ll follow through, now that popular longtime Rep. Neil Abercrombie has gotten into the race for the Democrats. Either way, this race favors Abercrombie. (D)

Idaho – Butch Otter (R): Safe R

While Otter won his first term by a surprisingly close (for Idaho) 52-44 margin in 2006, as an incumbent, no one expects him to face a serious challenge. (D)

Illinois – Pat Quinn (D): Safe D

Thank god Blago’s finally gone, huh? Any halfway credible Republicans (eg, Rep. Mark Kirk) are going to set their sights on Roland Burris’s Senate seat, not the governor’s mansion. There’s always been a teeny bit of chatter that Attorney General Lisa Madigan might get in, but that possibility seems so remote we aren’t even counting this as a Race to Watch (yet). (D)

Iowa – Chet Culver (D): Safe D

Democrat Chet Culver is expected to run for re-election, and the GOP’s shelf is currently kind of bare in Iowa. However, this sleepy race got a jolt recently when Iowa’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of gay marriage, and Culver said he’d honor that. That perked up the ears of nutty Rep. Steve King, who’s now considering this race more strongly. It seems unlikely, though, that King, one of the House’s most conservative members, would play well outside his western Iowa base. (C)

Kansas – Kathleen Sebelius (OPEN) (D): Likely R

Despite being stymied in federal races, Democrats have actually had a decently successful run in Kansas gubernatorial elections – four of the past seven governors here have been Dems. However, with Kathleen Sebelius out of the picture and no real statewide bench in her place, it’s certainly shaping up to be the GOP’s turn next year. This is retiring Sen. Sam Brownback’s race to lose. (J)

Maine – John Baldacci (OPEN) (D): Lean D

The open Maine governor’s race is one of the biggest question marks in the whole nation, but the state’s Democratic proclivities and lack of an obvious GOP candidate mean good odds of a Democratic retention. When ex-Rep. Tom Allen lost the 2008 Senate race, he seemed a likely candidate in this race, but he has declined. Other possible Dems include former AG Steve Rowe, 30-something state house majority leader Hannah Pingree, or, more remotely, Rep. Mike Michaud. (C)

Maryland – Martin O’Malley (D): Likely D

Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley hasn’t had the most stellar of approval ratings during his first term, but the MD GOP’s bench is pathetically thin – their top hope for this race, ex-Gov. Robert Ehrlich, is the same guy whose ass O’Malley paddled in 2006. Not inspiring. (J)

Massachusetts – Deval Patrick (D): RTW

Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick has some exceptionally bad approval ratings, even for the toxic environment that all governors are currently grappling with. A March poll from SUSA had 68% of voters disapproving of his job performance. It’s hard to imagine the MA GOP barfing up an acceptable nominee in this ultra-blue state, but stranger things have happened in politics – after all, Republicans won four straight gubernatorial elections here from 1990 to 2002, so this race is worth keeping an eye on. (J)

Michigan – Jennifer Granholm (OPEN) (D): Tossup

The open seat in Michigan presents a difficult retention for Democrats. Gov. Jennifer Granholm leaves office with high negatives, and Lt.Gov. John Cherry, at this point the likely Dem nominee, suffers a bit from the association with her, as seen in his mediocre poll numbers. The good news for the Dems at this point is that perhaps the most formidable GOP candidate, Oakland Co. Executive L. Brooks Patterson, has declined to run. If polarizing Rep. Peter Hoekstra boxes out AG Mike Cox and SoS Terri Lynn Land in the primary on the strength of his base in conservative western Michigan, Cherry’s task becomes easier. (C)

Minnesota – Tim Pawlenty (R): Lean R

The million-dollar question in this race is whether GOP two-termer Tim Pawlenty runs for a third term, or bails in order to start prep for a 2012 presidential run. If he stays, Democrats start out in a bit of a hole; with an open seat, though, this would be very competitive. The many Dems jostling for the nomination include ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman, state house speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher, former state house minority leader Matt Entenza, a whole slew of state senators, and maybe Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. (C)

Nebraska – Dave Heineman (R): Safe R

Dave Heineman should have no trouble being re-elected governor of dark-red Nebraska. Tony Raimondo, an ex-GOP businessman who lost to Scott Kleeb in the 2008 senate primary, may carry the flag for the Democrats. (C)

Nevada – Jim Gibbons (R): Tossup

Republican Jim Gibbons may be the most vulnerable incumbent governor going into 2010, plagued by every possible type of scandal. It’s possible he may not even run, and likely he wouldn’t survive a primary even if he did, as recently defeated state senator Joe Heck is already in and Rep. Dean Heller may join him. On the Dem side, assembly speaker Barbara Buckley and Clark Co. Commission chair (and son of Harry) Rory Reid get the most mention. (C)

New Hampshire – John Lynch (D): Safe D

Though New Hampshire governors typically only serve three two-year terms, Lynch looks ready to run for a fourth. Lynch generated a fair bit of anger among NH Democrats after he agreed to appoint a Republican to replace Sen. Judd Gregg (back in the halcyon days when Gregg was going to kinda-sorta run a few bits of the Commerce Department). But he’s has cultivated a “bipartisan” (read: wimpy) record that’s been hard to assail. He looks safe on both sides. (D)

New Jersey – Jon Corzine (D): Tossup

What a mess. Incumbent Dem Jon Corzine’s approval ratings have been in the toilet for quite some time, and he’s trailed Republican US Attorney Chris Christie in every poll since mid-January, never pulling numbers higher than 40%. Unpopular initiatives at home (particularly a failed plan to raise turnpike tolls) have hurt him, along with the brutal economic climate. Even his own considerable wallet (Corzine’s one remaining ace) has taken a hit. Calling this a tossup is probably generous to Corzine. But still, the “moderate” Christie has to make it through a June primary first, and NJ Republicans have shown in the past that they are perfectly capable (like their brethren in so many other states) of rejecting electable establishment choices in favor of wingers – just see Bret Schundler. (D)

New Mexico – Bill Richardson (OPEN) (D): Likely D

The GOP bench took a pounding here in 2008, with Democrats sweeping the state’s five congressional seats and delivering a commanding margin for Barack Obama further up the ballot. In a race against a warmed-over loser like ex-Rep. Steve Pearce or controversial Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, Democrats appear to have the advantage with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish at the helm. (J)

New York – David Paterson (D): RTW

Pretty amazing. Just a couple of years after Eliot Spitzer won the governor’s mansion with almost 70% of the vote, David Paterson has slipped far enough to look vulnerable to a challenge from Rudy Giuliani – very vulnerable. Fortunately, as of now, Rudy isn’t running (though he’s started making some odd noises). More importantly for Paterson’s future, it seems that AG Andrew Cuomo could crush him with little more than an angry glare. If Cuomo jumps in, Paterson might be wise to bail altogether rather than get pounded in a primary. (D)

Ohio – Ted Strickland (D): Likely D

While early polling suggested that Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland was in surprisingly soft shape, two more recent polls tell us that, as of now, he has very little to worry about. While Ohio’s perilous economic state should always keep Ted looking in the rearview mirror, it’s hard to see this fairly popular Governor get knocked off by the likes of a warmed-over loser like former Rep. John Kasich. (J)

Oklahoma – Brad Henry (OPEN) (D): Lean R

While Oklahoma may still cling to some remnants of a Democratic tradition in downballot races, it’s a tradition that seems to be fading – Republicans have been capturing state legislative seats at a steady pace over the past several cycles, and won outright control of the state Senate last year. Fortunately, Democrats are aided by a strong bench; both AG Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins are seeking the office, but they’ll face strong opposition from Rep. Mary Fallin (herself a former Lt. Governor) or possibly even ex-Rep. and former Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts. This race is entirely winnable for Edmondson or Askins, but they’ll have to earn it with serious elbow grease. (J)

Oregon – Ted Kulongoski (OPEN) (D): Lean D

This open seat race could really be anywhere from Tossup to Safe D, depending on who actually shows up. A race between ex-Sen. Gordon Smith and a lesser Dem, like state senate president Peter Courtney or former SoS Bill Bradbury (a rematch of the 2002 senate race), could go either way. Smith, however, is settling in on K Street, and there’s a good chance a much-higher-profile Dem, like Rep. Peter DeFazio or ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber, will get involved. State senator Jason Atkinson (or maybe Rep. Greg Walden) would be the likely non-Gordo GOP nominee, but wouldn’t stand much chance in November. (C)

Pennsylvania – Ed Rendell (OPEN) (D): Tossup

Democrats will be trying to break a half-century’s worth of history next year in a state that traditionally has alternated between Dem and GOP governors every eight years like clockwork. The Democratic field remains fluid at this point: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato appears interested, but other names, such as Auditor General Jack Wagner and Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham are also possibilities. For the GOP, state AG Tom Corbett appears to be the front-runner, and he could be a challenging foe in the general election. Pat Meehan, a former U.S. Attorney, is in the GOP’s frothy mix, and Congressman Jim Gerlach has also formed an exploratory and appears keen to make the jump. With so many unknowns, this race is nothing but a tossup. (J)

Rhode Island – Donald Carcieri (OPEN) (R): Tossup

With GOPer Don Carcieri term-limited out, an open seat in one of the most Democratic states should present an easy pickup opportunity. However, this race just got more complicated, with the likely entry of ex-Senator Lincoln Chafee as an independent. With the presumed front-runners for both parties recently opting out of the race (David Cicilline for the Dems, Steven Laffey for the GOP), the Republicans left running a nobody (state rep. Joe Trillo), and no clear Democratic front-runner, Chafee has a tangible path to victory. (C)

South Carolina – Mark Sanford (OPEN) (R): Likely R

Democrats don’t really have anyone of stature who could take on this race (former education superindendant Inez Tenenbaum said no, for instance). But it’s an open seat and we’re more than a year-and-a-half away from election day, so we don’t feel justified moving this one to Safe R quite yet. (D)

South Dakota – Mike Rounds (OPEN) (R): Likely R

With GOP Gov. Mike Rounds being unable to run for another term next year, Democrats have a shot to nab this office… that is, they would, but no one seems particularly interested in running under the Dem banner in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since the ’70s. One Democrat who could make a real race of it, at-large Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, does not seem inclined to run for anything other than re-election at this point. (J)

Tennessee – Phil Bredesen (OPEN) (D): Lean R

Democrats have been slowly losing their downballot grip on Tennessee over the past decade; Republicans now have outright control of the state Senate, and are more or less tied with Dems in the House (with a lone rogue Republican thwarting outright GOP control, but that’s a bedtime story for another night). With Phil Bredesen term-limited out of the governor’s office, both the Dem and GOP fields are large, but they also both lack serious star-power. For the Dems, former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, state Sen. Roy Herron, businessman Ward Cammack and beer distributor Mike McWherter (son of former Governor Ned) are in the hunt, while Congressan Zach Wamp, Memphis DA Bill Gibbons, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey round out the GOP field. Based on Tennessee’s recent trend, we have to give the early edge to the GOP, but it’s not an insurmountable one. (J)

Texas – Rick Perry (R): RTW

If Kay Bailey Hutchison decapitates secessionist incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary, this race will likely be all but over. But if Perry somehow fends off her challenge, a Democrat like ex-state Rep. Tom Schieffer just may have an outside chance, although the most recent polling suggests that Dems would still start off behind the 8-ball. (J)

Vermont – Jim Douglas (R): Safe R

Republican Jim Douglas has had little trouble getting re-elected in this dark-blue state. Democrats have a solid candidate lined up in former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, but they’ll likely face the same problem as usual: third-party candidates vacuuming up votes on the left. Vermont is unique, though, in throwing the governor’s race to the legislature if no candidate breaks 50%, so, as with most other years, a three-way race needs to have the ‘anything can happen’ caveat. (C)

Virginia – Tim Kaine (OPEN) (D): Tossup

Democrats have a couple disadvantages here: one, this race, one year after the presidential race, is always an open seat and usually seems to go the opposite direction from whoever holds the White House. Also, they have a crowded, expensive primary with ex-delegate Brian Moran, state senator Creigh Deeds, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, while AG Bob McDonnell has the GOP nod to himself. The most recent poll showed Moran faring the best, narrowly leading the primary and losing by 1 to McDonnell; the primary and general (regardless of who’s in it) both look to be painfully close. (C)

Wisconsin – Jim Doyle (D): Likely D

Democrat Jim Doyle hasn’t formally announced that he’s running for a third term, but his fundraising efforts suggest that he is. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker gets the buzz as his likeliest opponent, although everyone seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for clarification from Doyle. Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton would probably take over for the Dems if Doyle backed out. (C)

Wyoming – Dave Freudenthal (OPEN) (D): Likely R

A very odd duck indeed. Freudenthal is, as the law stands now, term-limited. However, a very similar statute which applied to state legislators was overturned a while back for failing to comply with the state constitution. Most legal observers seem to believe that the gubernatorial term limits would also crumble before a challenge. If Freudenthal successfully fights the law and runs again, this seat is probably Safe D. If not, then it’s Likely R, if not Safe R – a crazy seesaw indeed. (D)