We haven’t done one of these so far for the 2010 cycle, so now is as good a time as any to start. You know the task ahead of you: Rank the senate races up for grabs in 2010 (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
Have at it!
1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
5. Ohio
6. North Carolina
7. Connecticut (Dodd isn’t in Bunning’s shoes yet)
8. Colorado
9. Florida (Crist will likely run)
10. Illinois (Burris will retire or loose primary)
11. Nevada
12. Deleware (Only in play if Castle runs)
all other races are low profile, too hard to rank with any degree of certainty
1. New Hampshire – it’s Hodes’ race to lose
2. Ohio – seriously, what does Rob Portman have to run on?
3. Missouri – Carnahan beats Blunt in polling and fundraising, but it’s still a tossup
4. North Carolina – at this point it’s a tossup
5. Kentucky – I don’t think Bunning will be the Republican candidate. But with a strong candidate like Conway and a non-presidential year we have a good chance. Still it’s Kentucky, a conservative state. Leans Republican.
6. Florida – If Crist runs for Senate then he wins. If Crist runs for Governor then Meek is favored. This ranking is based on what seems to be the probability (fairly high) that Crist enters the Senate race.
7. Colorado – It’s still a swing state, and just because no strong Republican has announced yet, doesn’t mean Bennet gets a free ride. Leans Dem but far from certain.
8. Pennsylvania – I’m in the minority here but I expect Specter to win the Republican primary and the general election. Republican primary voters are right-wing, but not stupid, they know a vote for Toomey is a vote for the Democrat.
9. Connecticut – Dodd either redeems himself within the next year or he retires and another Dem wins easily. Very likely Dem hold.
10. Louisiana – The electorate is too conservative to care about Vitter’s hooker problems. He will very likely get reelected, and the strongest possible Democratic candidates, like Melancon, won’t enter the Senate race.
1. New Hampshire
2. Kentucky
3. Pennsylvania
4. Missouri
5. Ohio
6. North Carolina
7. Florida (No Crist)
8. Connecticut
9. Colorado
10. Georgia (if Barrow gets into the race)
11. Delaware
12. Oklahoma (assuming a Coburn retirement)
13. Illinois
14. Louisiana
15. Nevada
16. New York
17. South Carolina
18. Iowa
Give up after that…
Lean takeover:
1. NH
2. KY
3. MO
Toss-up:
4. PA
5. CT
6. OH
Lean Retention:
7. FL
8. CO
9. LA
10. NV
Likely Retention:
11. TX
12. AR
13. DE
14. IL
15. OK
16. NY-B
17. WI
Everyone else is safe (barring an unlikely retirement).
Take Over:
NH
PA-If Specter Loses
MO
KY-If Bunning Doesn’t retire/lose in a primary
NC-If Cooper gets in
Toss Up:
OH
CT
Lean Hold:
CO
FL
PA-If Specter Wins
NC-If Cooper doesn’t get it
KY-If Bunning Retires Loses
Safe (But on the Radar):
LA
DE
1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
5. Ohio
6. North Carolina
7. Colorado
Connecticut and Illinois would be on the list if I thought Dodd and Burris would be the nominees. Florida’s not on the list because I think Crist will probably run. and win.
1 NH
2 PA
3 MO
4 CT (I expect it will be Dodd, almost certainly)
5 OH
6 KY
7 NC
8 CO
9 FL (moves up if not Crist)
10 DE
11 IL (moves way up if Burris)
12 NV
13 LA
14 AR
15 TX
I grouped them together into clumps. NH is likely flip. The second group is roughly tossup at this stage (until we know more). The third group is unlikely to flip, and the last group is practically “races to watch” — probably not gonna happen but you never know.
My guess right now = Dem +3.
But a lot can happen between now and then.
1. NH-OPEN (Gregg). Ideally Hodes should be raising more money, but really, who the hell is going to run against him? Jennifer Horn? Please.
2. PA-Specter. This is of course on the assumption that Specter likely loses the primary. I would like to see a candidate with more gravitas than that one guy whose friends with Ed Rendell enter the race, though.
3. KY-Bunning. Looking good. Frankly, I think we have this even if we end up against Grayson, though it would be a little more difficult.
4. MO-OPEN (Bond). With Missouri trending against us, I don’t think it’s wise to chock this one up as a slam dunk, but you do have to feel pretty damn good about how its going so far.
5. OH-OPEN (Voinovich) Things aren’t going as good as they could be, but the primary business probably doesn’t reach detrimental levels unless Rep Space decides to enter for some psychotic reason. Portman will raise a good fight, but Obama’s econ policies would have to be pretty damn unpopular for Ohioans to vote in someone who played such a big role in outsourcing.
6. NC-Burr. So Burr decides the best way to move out back-bencher obscurity is to play to the lowest common denominator of the far right. Okayyyyyy. This is NC so the race should be at least fairly close, but Burr’s going to have to try a lot harder if he wants to come out on top.
7. FL-Open (Martinez). To likely echo everyone else who will post in here, it all depends on what Crist ends up doing. Charlie gets permission from his boyfriend to run, and the only realistic way he’s not future-senator-elect is if Republicans manage to convalesce around a strong anti-Crist (and even if they do, he could well still pull it off). If not, Meek, Gelber or especially Iorio or Klein stand as good a shot as anyone.
8. CT-Dodd. I have trouble imagining the voters of blue Connecticut tossing out a Senator with this much influence when all is said and done, but at the moment he stands out as the most vulnerable Democratic Senator likely to face the voters in 2010.
9. IL-Burris. This is only this far down because the odds of Burris winning the primary are pretty damn low. If we are somehow looking at a Burris v Kirk race, than this is probably 4 or 5. If Repubs nominate a nutter, then this would stay about where it is, but otherwise, this doesn’t even belong in the top ten.
10. LA-Vitter. I’m not really seeing how we make hay here, but you never know. Our best chance is a really ugly Republican primary.
11. CO-Bennet. This should be a tight race, but Republicans are definitely only breaking out their B-squad. Bennet should win by a close but comfortable margin, if largely by default.
12. OK-Coburn. This doesn’t belong up nearly this high if Coburn does seek reelection, but we’d have a great shot here if he doesn’t that would put this race into the single digits rankings-wise. I’m betting he doesn’t run again, but in the mean time I’m hedging my bets.
13. NV-Reid. On paper Reid should be fairly vulnerable: sitting party leaders tend to be targeted (at least as of late), Republicans loathe him because they see him as a leading agent of the uber-liberal socialists, and Democrats loathe him because they know that claim is utterly ridiculous and he’s little more than a spineless Dixiecrat. However, there’s no obvious candidate for him to face, so he may end up with a pass.
14. NY-Gillibrand. Republicans will give her a decent opponent, but they will fail. She might lose the primary, but, frankly, I was pretty cold on her when she was appointed and was anxious to see a strong primary challenge come her way, but she seems to be doing alright so far.
15. AZ-McCain. When a Senator fails at presidential runs, they tend to see a drop in performance the next time they face their state’s voters. Given AZ’s leftward drift, the disaster that is the new Republican hegemony in statewide government, and McCain’s proven tendency to go erratic when faced with a tough challenge, we may have a shot here. The question is who? Unfortunately, it’s probably no one, but McCain can potentially be taken out. The only strong candidate I’ve seen the faintest amount of buzz surrounding is Jim Pederson (he actually did turn into a pretty strong challenger by the end of 2006, but it was wayyyy too late. In any event he’d come into the 2010 race a much more experience candidate).
16. AR-Lincoln
17. WI-Feingold (only gets interesting if Ryan runs)
18. KS-OPEN (Brownback)
19. DE-OPEN
20. CA-Boxer
21. IA-Grassley (moves up into the single digits somewhere if Grassley calls it quits)
22. AK-Murkowski
23. WA-Murray
24. GA-Isaksen
25. VT-Leahy
26. ND-Dorgan
27. IN-Bayh
28. AL-Shelby
29. SD-Thune
30. UT-Bennett
31. MD-Mikulski
32. SC-DeMint
33. HI-Inouye (obviously moves up somewhat if he retires)
34. OR-Wyden
35. ID-Crapo
36. NY-Schumer (Gillibrand’s seat will obviously lure away any halfway decent challenger, not that it will matter)
a lot of people have florida high up on the list, and saying it might go higher if crist enters. that’s not flipping a seat, it’s retaining one. crist entering the senate race should put it into the high teens because it won’t flip to the opposing party.
Likely flips
NH Hodes’s to lose
PA Specter retires
OH the Ohio GOP is poison for Portman
MO turnout wins for Carnahan
NC the 50/50 race of the election
Some chance of flipping, though under 50%
KY (McConnell probably gets himself a better lackey)
AZ (if McCain has to retire)
IA (if Grassley has to retire)
Same Party, Different Faces
CT Larson?
MA Markey?
DE Beau Biden
IL ?
TX Sharp
OK Cole?
KS Moran?
FL Crist
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Missouri
4. Pennsylvania
5. North Carolina
6. Kentucky
7. Florida (No Crist)
8. Connecticut
9. Colorado
1) NH – Open (Hodes dumps some sap)
2) MO – Open (Carnahan beats Blunt)
3) NC – Burr (Hagan crushed Dole and Burr really sucks)
4) PA – Specter (if its Toomey then its in the bag)
5) CT – Dodd (needs to get his act together)
6) FL – Open (I’m guessing Crist doesn’t run)
7) OH – Open (we have a primary while they have Portman, otherwise it would be higher)
8) KY – Bunning (the guy is crazy, but so is kentucky)
9) CO – Bennet (too many unknowns)
10) IL – Burris (sigh…this should’ve been one of the safest)
11) OK – Coburn (he may retire, but will we recruit anyone)
12) DE – Open (if Castle doesn’t run, this drops considerably)
13) LA – Vitter (we need somebody to challenge this disgrace)
14) NV – Reid (should be vulnerable, but no one is stepping up)
15) WI – Feingold (he’ll have another close race but likely get reelected)
16) CA – Boxer (they’ll throw everything they have at her, but she’ll be fine)
17) AZ – McCain (yes he had a lousy presidential run, yes he’ll take a beating for it, but he’ll likely get another term)
18) AR – Lincoln (poor poll numbers, but Arkansas GOP sucks)
19) WA – Murray (no big names will step up to challenge her)
20) IA – Grassley (there’s a chance he gets primaried, but he’s very likely to survive)
21) ND – Dorgan (just like Baucus and Johnson last cycle, they won’t recruit anyone)
22) GA – Isakson (there are potential candidates, but unlikely any of them will run)
23) AK – Murkowski (thin bench, no chance)
24) NY – Gillibrand (unless something happens in the primary, she should get a full term with little problem)
25) KS – Open (too bad we have no bench)
26) UT – Bennett (it might not be Bennett after the primary, but the seat won’t change parties)
27) AL – Shelby (open Gov race means no legit. candidate)
28) HI – Inouye (Lingle could make it a bit tougher, but only a bit)
29) VT – Leahy (only Douglas could make it close, but he won’t run)
30) SC – DeMint (most conservative senator, but we can’t touch him)
31) IN – Bayh (remains very popular)
32) OR – Wyden (even Gordon Smith gets crushed)
33) MD – Mikulski (moving along)
34) SD – Thune (no Herseth Sandlin = no chance)
35) NY – Schumer (Gillibrand makes him even safer)
36) ID – Crapo (will we even bother this time)
1. New Hampshire (open seat held by Judd Gregg – R)
2. Missouri (open seat held by Kit Bond – R)
3. Kentucky (Jim Bunning – R)
4. Connecticut (Chris Dodd – D)
5. Ohio (open seat held by George Voinovich – R)
6. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter – R)
7. Colorado (Michael Bennet – D)
8. Florida (open seat held by Mel Martinez – R)
9. Illinois (open seat held by Roland Burris? – D)
10. North Carolina (Richard Burr – R)
11. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln – D)
12. Louisiana (David Vitter – R)
I expect Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana to drop off the list once a serious candidate of the opposing party fails to emerge. Florida as well, if Crist jumps in. The rest of the seats I don’t see being competitive as of now.
A few of you may know I don’t believe in mixing races (Dem-held seats vs. Rep-held seats) so here’s my list.
Rep. Held seats that could flip:
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. North Carolina
6. Pennsylvania
7. Florida
Dem. Held seats that could flip:
1. Connecticut
2. Nevada
1. PA- Specter will lose the primary (and I will help Toomey again this year to see that it happens).
2. NH
3. MO- Blunt is DOA as a candidate. However, if Steelman were to win the primary, this is a tossup.
4. NC- I think Burr’s recent comments about withdrawing money from the bank are going to really hurt him, regardless oif whom the opponent is.
5. OH- Bush’s trade Rep isn’t gonna win in Ohio, regardless of how much money he has. But his money is the reason why this race is ranked 5th and not 1st.
6. KY- If Bunning is not the nominee, this race goes lower.
7. CT- Unless there is more crap coming out about Dodd, I think he’ll be reelected. This race reminds me of the Montana Senate race in 2006 and Conrad Burns almost got reelected despite all his scandals. Connecticut is more of a blue state than was Montana in 2006.
8. CO= Michael Bennet is a poor candidate, and he’ll likely get a primary.
9. FL- I think there is a 50/50 chance that Crist gets in, and a 30-40% chance that Crist loses a primary even if does get in. But Meek and Gelber won’t beat the Repub even if Crist doesn’t get in. However, Meek/Gelber could well beat a Repub who beats Crist in a primary.
10. DE- I wonder if Carney’s entry into DE-AL will push Mike Castle into this race. If it does, this race could go up, big time.
Others:
IL- I don’t give Burris much of a chance of winning the primary, and don’t give the Repubs much of a chance to win the general.
NV- Nevada is now a seriously blue state, and the Repubs have nobody to really take on Reid.
LA, OK- Dems have little chance here.
1. NH
2. KY
3. NC
4. MO
5. OH
6. PA
7. FL
8. LA – I think Vitter is in more trouble than you think.
9. CT
10. TX? (once Hutchison resigns)
These are the six “A” level takeover opportunities
NH
PA
MO
OH
NC
KY
For the third straight cycle I do not see a lost Democratic seat despite all the hype on CT, AR, CO.
Fl could join the list if Crist is not the Republican nominee.
Napolitano to the cabinet helps McCain survive. Sebelius to the cabinet prevents a rare KS opportunity. Only a Gov. Henry entry could make OK at play. Our bench in TX is questionable although this would head the second tier if one were to develop.
I have tried to factor in possibility of retirement or primary defeat:
1. MO – OPEN
2. NH – OPEN
3. OH – OPEN
4. PA – Specter
5. KY – Bunning
6. FL – OPEN
7. NC – Burr
8. CT – Dodd
9. TX – OPEN
10. CO – Bennet
11. LA – Vitter
12. NV – Reid
13. IL – Burris
14. AR – Lincoln
15. DE – Open
16. NY – Gillibrand
17. OK – Coburn
18. KS – OPEN
19. WI – Feingold
20. CA – Boxer
21. ND – Dorgan
22. WA – Murray
23. GA – Isakson
24. AK – Murkowski
25. IA – Grassley
26. AZ – McCain
27. HI – Inouye
28. SD – Thune
29. SC – DeMint
30. IN – Bayh
31. MD – Mikulski
32. OR – Wyden
33. AL – Shelby
34. NY – Schumer
35. ID – Crapo
36. UT – Bennett
37. VT – Leahy
1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Ohio
6. Florida
7. Connecticut
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Colorado
KY
PA
NH
MO
OH
CT
IL ( if Burris is the nominee)
CO
NY B
DE
1. NH – OPEN (Hodes wins)
2. PA – Specter (Toomey loses to Dem)
3. MO – OPEN (Carnahan wins)
4. OH – OPEN (Porter can’t hold for GOP)
5. KY – Bunning (Bunning loses seat)
6. NC – Burr (Tightest race of 2010)
7. CT – Dodd (CT won’t send a GOP’er)
8. FL – OPEN
9. CO – Bennet
Like 2008, DEMs will win the OPEN seats in the Top 5 (PA becomes open once Toomey beats Specter). From there it’s beating out Bunning (yes) and Burr (should). I honestly don’t see FL being much of a chance for a DEM pick-up, while CT I just don’t see sending a GOP’er to the Senate, Dodd running or not. Finally Colorado just as Bennet is new, an appointee, and we need to see who the challenger will ultimately be.
DEMs picked up 6 seats in 2006 and another 8 seats in 2008. At this point, another 5-6 seats seems doable. Wouldn’t a 65-35 advantage in the US Senate be a wonderful thing? I just wonder how progressive these newcomers will be though given the states that are listed towards the top.
1. Pennsylvania- Specter is in trouble- and don’t expect GWBush and Santorum to bail him out this time.
2. New Hampshire- This would have been 1st w/o Hodes’ poor fundraising showing.
3. Kentucky- Bunning is toast.
4. Missouri- Let me be blunt, Carnahan is in the lead.
5. (tie)-Connecticut- Dodd is in major trouble. Perhaps Simmons should go for the “Connecticut Against Dodd” nomination instead of the GOP.
5. (tie)- Ohio- Portman may have the fundraising lead, but the demographics will be hard for this free trader. Also, a piece of trivia- no Senator has been elected in many years that hasn’t already lost statewide (cough…cough…Lee Fisher). Brunner on the other hand, is a true Progressive we all should love. (imagine that…a Brown, Brunner delegation…enough to warm the heart of any Ohioan!!)
7.North Carolina- The Curse of Sam Ervin be upon us…
8.Florida- Will he or won’t he…with Charlie Christ, this race will probably fall off this list, without him it moves into a tie with Ohio and COnnecticut.
9. Colorado- Bennet is the first on this list of the”probably will win” but still could lose crowd.
10. Delaware- If Castle runs…
11.Nevada
12. Arkansas
13. Illinois- Burris won’t get the nomination, but if he does…
14. Lousiana- Answer me this, why doesn’t Joe Cao challenge Vitter in the primary? He will lose his House seat, but might hold a Senate Seat for years.
15. Texas- If is KBH is out the GOP will still get ~53%.
1. New Hampshire
2. Missouri
3. Pennsylvania
4. Kentucky
5. Ohio
6. Connecticut
7. North Carolina
8. Florida
9. Colorado
10. Illinois
If Specter loses his primary that seat will shoot to number two but if Specter wins that’ll probably drop it down below North Carolina. If Bunning decides to retire, Kentucky will probably drop below Connecticut, if Dodd and Burris decide not to run for election (the latter seems likely based on Burris’s atrocious fundraising) then they’ll disappear from the list. If Crist enters the senate race, Florida will also disappear from the list. Oh and if Cooper enters, North Carolina will shoot above Ohio.
1. NH – OPEN
2. PA – Specter
3. OH – OPEN
4. MO – OPEN
5. NC – Burr
6. FL – OPEN
7. KY – Bunning
8. AZ – McCain
9. CT – Dodd
10. TX – OPEN
11. IA – Grassley
12. LA – Vitter
I’ve tried to keep in mind here not simply the personalities and funding situations but also the underlying dynamics of each state’s politics. Thus, I’ve ranked Kentucky lower than have many others, and I’ve ranked Arizona and Iowa higher. I would guess that the range of the next Senate will be 60-65 Democrats (including Franken and the two independents).
1. Pennsylvania
2. New Hampshire
3. Ohio
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. North Carolina
7. Connecticut
8. TX-SEN
9. Florida
1 New Hampshire (Hoades)
2 Pennsylvania (tough crowds for Specter to please)
3 North Carolina (unless Burr runs a smart campaign)
4 Missouri (Carnahan looks like a strong candidate)
5 Kentucky (assuming Bunning wins GOP primary)
6 Ohio (I think it flips, but to whom?)
* * * * * flip line * * * * *
7 Florida (if Crist runs, Florida is off the table)
8 Colorado (let’s see how good a candidate Bennett is)
9 Connecticut (Dodd needs to mend some fences)
10 Illinois (Burris won’t be on the fall ticket)
11 Delaware (B. Biden)
12 Nevada (GOP has no top tier candidate)
13 Texas (if Hutchinson runs for governor)
14 Louisiana (may require pictures of Dave in a diaper)
15 Arkansas (assuming GOP can find a candidate)
1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania (the wild card is the primary results to me)
3. Missouri
4. Ohio
5. Kentucky
6. North Carolina
7. Connecticut
8. Florida (Crist is the wild card here; if he runs FL moves way down)
9. Connecticut
10. Colorado
11. Illinois (assuming Burris is not the nominee)
12. Nevada
13. Delaware (if Castle runs)
Note: Rankings subject to change at any time between now and 11:59 P.M. November 1, 2010.
1. NH – Hodes will win by at least 10%, probably more.
2. PA – Specter is toast. Any Democrat beats Toomey by at least 10%.
3. OH – Money aside, I am very pessimistic on Portman’s ability to be a formidable challenge, given his background.
4. MO – Carnahan is superior to Blunt in every way. Should be close, but I can’t see how we lose this one.
5. KY – I am convinced Bunning runs, but even if he doesn’t, Conway or Mongiardo are strong enough to beat the other contenders.
6. NC – Burr will fall easily to Cooper, but I am not sure he runs. If not, we still have a very good shot at winning this one.
7. FL – Doubt Crist runs, but it’s still a tough race for either Meek or Gelber to win statewide. Against Rubio though, I think it’s doable.
8. LA – only if we get a solid candidate. Chris John in a rematch, or maybe Don Cazayoux.
9. CT – We’re not going to lose a senate race in Connecticut.
1. Missouri – best possible Dem candidate and very strong fundraiser
2. New Hampshire – best possible Dem candidate, fundraising a bit weak so far, but no apparent strong opponent
3. Kentucky/Pennsylvania (tie) – these are both somewhat dependent on incumbents; if Specter loses, which seems likely, this is a certain takeover, and I think we have a shot even if he wins; if Bunning runs, he’s toast, but we’ve got a strong bench of candidates who’d be even money against Grayson.
4. Ohio – Fisher and Brunner are both top-tier candidates; Portman could go either way as an opponent. A lot will depend on how the primary between F & B goes.
5. Connecticut – Dodd has to get his act together here, but he’s got a lot of advantages if he can do so.
6. North Carolina – assuming Cooper runs, and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t.
7. Florida – all depends on Crist; if he doesn’t, it seems like Kendrick Meek is the likely Dem nominee, which isn’t the best possible result.
maybe a poll would be more useful than just having everybody list their choices. (My eyes glaze over reading them all!)
Here’s a quick poll, if you’re interested — it will aggregate our guesses together and determine which races we (collectively) think are most likely to flip.
http://www.cs.cornell.edu/w8/~…
The poll uses Condorcet rules, which are good for rank-orderings like this.
1. New Hampshire-I’d like to see Hodes have to win a primary first.
2. Missouri-Blunt will not be a viable candidate.
3. Pennsylvania-I can’t really see a formula that Specter can win the primary with.
4. Kentucky-Thought Luallen would’ve been a better candidate than Mongiardo or Conway.
5. Ohio-I hope Brunner still has a fight in her.
6. North Carolina-How come Brad Miller’s name isn’t in there?
7. Florida-Meek could turn out to be a pleasant surprise.
8. Connecticut-Dodd is smart and persuasive guy and might be able to pull a Houdini (and Simmons isn’t exactly a barnburner), but it’s far from certain.
9. South Carolina-The thinner McCain margin in my home state kind of went under the radar. Any talented Dem (Brad Hutto? Jim Hodges?) would take the center from DeMint.
10.Texas-According to Tom DeLay, we might have more Texas Senate races to call soon.
Repubs go three straight cycles with no pick ups. All providing the environment is as now.
1. NH
2. PA
3. NC
4. MO
5. CT
6. CO
7. OH
8. KY
9. LA
10. AR – tied closely to Obama and the economy
11. FL – If Crist runs donate to Marco Rubio
12. WI
13. AZ – recruitment will make or break this one
14. NV – ditto
15. IL
16. SC – a decent candidate with some money could make a race of this one.
After that it will take a miracle or a macacca.
which i guess makes this more fun than in ’10…
Leaning takeover
1 NH – a clear race. Hodes is a top contender. GOP doesn’t have one.
2 PA – even if Specter limps through a primary (unlikely), he’ll still be 80. It could be a Chafee situation. PA is a pretty blue state at this point and even Torsella could beat either Toomey or Specter. And I think it’s going to be Sestak vs Toomey.
3 MO – Carnahan has a clear path, tough primary on GOP side.
4 KY – His fundraising was lousy, but not THAT lousy. I think Bunning stays in at least until early ’10. Conway looks like a great candidate and it’s an early primary.
5 NC – Cooper gets in and he’s the favorite. An incumbent polling steadily in the 40s against a top tier candidate is an underdog.
Tossup
6 OH – Open seat – tough primary on our side – Portman is flawed, but has a clear path in THE swing state. Absolute tossup
Leaning retention
7 FL Even if Crist runs he’s not an incumbent and will probably be in a messy primary. We will have a serious well-funded candidate in the 2nd swingiest state.
8 CT Dodd’s numbers will improve (enough so he won’t step aside) and he will have $15M in a blue state. But it will be a tough race.
Likely retention
9 TX – open seat and we have two good candidates, but it is TX.
9 CO – Bennet’s doing most things right and they don’t have a challenger in a still-blueing state. Also – you can’t beat somebody with nobody.
10 LA – Even in New Orleans on Mardi Gras, grown men wearing diapers is considered a little weird. But You can’t beat somebody with nobody.
That’s a pickup of 6 likely, but of course, all the seats swing in one direction so it’s more likely a swing of 3 if Obama is unpopular and 7 or 8 if he’s popular.
Republican seats
NH – Hodes wins against a small-name Republican
MO – Carnahan wins easily against a bruised Blunt
OH – close race that Portman ends up winning
FL – Crist runs and crushes Meek or another Dem
KY – Conway beats either Bunning or Grayson
NC – Cooper beats Burr
PA – Specter hangs on in primary and wins reelection
LA – no credible Dem runs for the seat and Diaper Dave wins again
All other Republican seats safe
Dem seats
CT – Dodd pulls it out in a close race
NY-B – Gillibrand wins easily against a no-name Republican
DE – Castle doesn’t run and Beau Biden wins easily
AR – Lincoln faces a tougher-than-expected reelection but still wins
ND – Dorgan smashes a small-time GOPer
IL – Giannoulias wins Dem primary and crushes any Republican including Kirk or Roskam
CO – Bennet faces Frazier and wins in a closer-than-expected race
NV – Reid gets no major opponent and wins reelection in a walk
CA – Boxer faces tough reelection against Fiorina but wins by about five points
All other Dem seats safe
OVERALL – Dems pick up 4, GOP 0, Dems net 4 pickups
1. NH
2. PA
3. KY
4. MO
5. NC
6. OH
7. CT
8. CO
9. FL
10. LA
Honorable mentions include NV, AZ, IL, and TX. I think everyone else is safe.
I predict that the Dems will take at least 4 of my first 6 picks. The GOP may pick up 1 of our seats, but right now I don’t see it happening.
Instead of making my picks I thought instead I’d give this analysis I wrote on Intrade picks ( its probably more interesting than my own):
Intrade, where people bet on just about everything, gives odds on who is most likely to win the 2010 Senate races- and its very good news, if you’re a Democrat. The traders at Intrade, who actually plunk down money on the outcome, give the Dems better than even odds to pick up 6 seats:
1. New Hampshire ( D55 R25)
2. Missouri ( D55 R37)
3. Ohio ( D46 R37)
4. Pennsylvania ( D45 R40)
5. North Carolina( D40 R30)
6. Kentucky ( D35 R30)
The numbers on the right are dollars bid per contract, and as we approach the election they will total more or less 100. They can then be viewed as percentages. For now they can only be converted to odds. As good as this is, there was one other nugget I found: who else’s most vulnerable: 1 Dem and 3 Republicans. These are the most noteworthy:
7. Florida ( R45 D40) Much closer than I thought!
8. Iowa ( R25 D12) Grassley appears very weak
9. Colorado ( D50 R30) The 1st Dem on the list at #9
10. Louisiana ( R45 D20) Vitter is the last truly competitive race on the list, and he’s probably not in any real trouble. That leaves all the following currently safe:
11. Connecticut ( D64 R30)
12. Nevada ( D60 R20)
13. Washington ( D60 R20)
14. New York SE ( D60 R10)
15. Kansas ( R65 D15)
In addition we have odds (all longshots) for the following races ( in alphabetical order):
Alaska 7 to 1
Arizona 10 to 1
Arkansas 7 to 1
California 7 to 1
North Dakota 7 to 1
Oklahoma 7 to 1
Wisconsin 7 to 1
The last group are so safe no one has taken the bet against:
Alabama, DELAWARE(!), Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, ILLINOIS(!), Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont. So the next time some Republican tells you Dodd, or Illinois, or some other seat is going red, just tell ’em to go to Intrade and put their money where their mouth is!
Lean Takeover
Bunning (R-KY)
Specter (R-PA)
Toss-Up
MO Open (Bond, R)
NH Open (Gregg, R)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
Dodd (D-CT)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party
FL Open (Martinez, R)
Burr (R-NC)
Reid (D-NV)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party
Vitter (R-LA)
Bennet (D-CO)
Burris (D-IL)
Lincoln (D-AR)
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…
Very little to argue with here. Maybe swap Reid and Bennet.