Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/17-19, “Colorado voters,” no trendlines):
Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41
Scott McInnis (R): 48
Undecided: 11Bill Ritter (D-inc): 42
Josh Penry (R): 40
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3%)
These numbers are pretty disturbing at first glance – incumbent Dem Bill Ritter is well under 50 and trails former Rep. Scott McInnis by a substantial margin, and barely beats Colorado state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. What gives? PPP doesn’t offer much in the way of explanation, just noting that Ritter’s approvals have dropped over their last three polls. He also didn’t fare so hot when PPP paired him up against some other names back in January (PDF) – just 46-40 over former (and 2006 opponent) Rep. Bob Beauprez.
PPP seemed to have a weirdly low approval rating for Obama in this poll, just 49-45. By way of comparison, PPP recently had Obama at 47-45 in Arkansas and 46-45 in Kentucky, while showing him at 54-38 in North Carolina. So it’s easy to see why the CO numbers just feel off. Apart from PPP (which is testing this particular matchup for the first time), I’m not aware of anyone even polling this race yet. We’ll have a better sense, of course, whenever they (or another firm) release a new survey.
was that Obama was so low. My suspicion is that there was something wrong with the poll.
It happens to the best pollsters.
CO is starting to have buyers remorse from their last couple of elections.
Either PPP is just way off base with their polling, which is a posibility, or Ritter’s rocky relations with labor and the appointment of Bennet have taken a toll.
PPP is having some trouble apparently, I would have bought a close race, but there is no way McInnis is polling that far ahead of Ritter.
a state that he won by 9 points compared to two states he lost by 16 (Kentucky) and 20 points (Arkansas). PPP is usually decent but I think it’s fair to call this an odd-ball. 95% confidence. Partisan breakdown looks relatively close, there must be something else skewing the results.