This one is already starting to gather a few speckles of dust, but it’s still worth a look. Strategic Vision (4/17-19, likely voters) tests the temperature in the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial hot tubs.
First, the Democratic mix, which includes fence-sitting ex-Gov. Roy Barnes:
Roy Barnes: 56
Thurbert Baker: 29
David Poythress: 4
DuBose Porter: 2
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3%)
And of course, team frothy wingnut:
John Oxendine: 33
Karen Handel: 14
Jack Kingston: 11
Lynn Westmoreland: 7
Sam Olens: 4
Mark Burkhalter: 2
Ray McBerry: 2
Austin Scott: 2
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±3%)
That’s a hell of a lot of players to leave without a scorecard, so let’s give you hand:
Barnes: Ex-Governor
Baker: Attorney General
Poythress: Ex-Labor Commissioner and Secretary of State
Porter: House Minority LeaderOxendine: Insurance Commissioner
Handel: Secretary of State
Kingston: US Representative
Westmoreland: US Representative (not running)
Olens: Cobb County Commission Chairman
Burkhalter: House Speaker pro tem
McBerry: Some Dude
Scott: State Representative
Barnes, who was defeated in 2002 as an incumbent, is reportedly still on the fence about a 2010 comeback attempt — but if Strategic Vision has a grip on reality here, the nomination could be his for the taking, even against current AG Thurbert Baker. In a three-way race without Barnes, Baker leads Poythress and Porter by a 41-8-5 split (with a whopping 46% undecided), indicating that even Baker is unknown to a lot of Democratic voters.
The GOP field tested here is much bigger, and, without Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the mix, a lot more wide open. This one could be a good horse race to watch.
that the statewide position of “Some Dude” can still win you 2% in a Georgia GOP primary 😛
Oxendine would be a joy to run against as a Democrat in Georgia and would probably be the easiest to defeat of the bunch.
Expect some kind of decision by Barnes to come in the coming months from what I hear. The party insiders seem to say he’s leaning pretty heavily towards getting into the race.
Not only is Westermoreland out, but State Senator Eric Johnson is in and U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal is rumored to be joining, both on the Republican side.
…Baker and Barnes would be reversed.
Baker is the only Democratic statewide elected officeholder, he’s a popular Attorney General with a “law-and-order” profile that appeals outside the Democratic base, and he’s a black guy who can monopolize black support and turn up black turnout without alienating whites.
Barnes, in contrast, was a one-term Governor who lost reelection earlier this same decade for the same office he now considers seeking. And it was the same year Baker won reelection, making Baker a better general election vote-getter with the exact same voters!
I know Baker would have a tougher time next November running for Governor than he had in his reelection runs, but I have to think he’s our best bet. Attorney General is a high-profile and politically charged job, and for non-liberal white Southerners it can’t be much easier to stomach a black man as A.G. than as Governor. That so many accept him as A.G. suggests Baker has well-neutralized the race issue with white Georgians.
Sam Olens is running for Attorney General, not Governor. However, with his lack of a statewide profile and his very low standing in this poll, it would have been an uphill climb for him to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Going from Cobb County Commission Chairman to running for Attorney General strikes me as surprising. I think district attorneys, state legislators, and sometimes statewide officials (Roland Burris went from Comptroller to AG) usually have the most credible profiles to run for the AG post.