IL-Gov: Madigan Has Big Lead on Quinn but Many Undecideds Remain

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 29

Lisa Madigan (D): 45

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±4.8%)

So, er, yeah – I think I was a bit too dismissive of the possibility of Lisa Madigan getting into the governor’s race yesterday. With an almost ridiculous 74-13 approval rating, she has a lot of doors open before her – including not just the statehouse but also the Senate race (which James will cover in another post).

Quinn is hardly doing poorly – he gets a 56-14 job approval rating. There’s a little bit of apples-to-oranges here, though – PPP tested Madigan’s favorability but Quinn’s job approvals. The former question can often yield better numbers. For instance, Obama has a 63-27 favorability rating, but a 61-32 nationwide job approval average.

What I don’t doubt is that Madigan has an edge in the head-to-head. But with Quinn doing well, this contest bears little resemblance to the other notable race where a Dem incumbent might get a serious primary challenge, NY-Gov. There are plenty of undecideds and Madigan hasn’t even declared her candidacy yet. Still, it would be foolish to discount the possibility of her getting in. Therefore, SSP is adding this seat to our Races to Watch category.

UPDATE: DGM has more in diaries.

8 thoughts on “IL-Gov: Madigan Has Big Lead on Quinn but Many Undecideds Remain”

  1. Hopefully an Illinois native can confirm this, but I was told once that no Illinois governor who proposed an increase in the state income tax has ever been reelected. If that’s true, I understand it, but I’m still surprised. I didn’t realize Illinoisans were all wanna-be Club for Growthers!

    It’s too bad, though. I had a chance to speak with someone who has known Governor Quinn for a long time, and he said Quinn is a great person– maybe a little eccentric, but a good guy.

  2. An easier time winning the Senate race according to the poll. In a four-way contest with Schakowsky, Burris, and Giannoulis she still gets an impressive 44% of the vote with everyone else in the teens, it’s entirely possible that she could get an outright majority if Schakowsky isn’t in the mix.

  3. Will not beat Lisa Madigan. It would take an eminently skilled pol to be able to win a Dem primary against the Chicago machine and Quinn is a good guy, but he’s not that good a pol.

Comments are closed.