IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll

Public Policy Polling (4/24-26, registered voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 19

Mark Kirk (R): 53

Undecided: 28

Jan Schakowsky (D): 33

Mark Kirk (R): 37

Undecided: 30

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 35

Mark Kirk (R): 35

Undecided: 29

Lisa Madigan (D): 49

Mark Kirk (R): 33

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±3.1%)

You’ve gotta figure that if Mark Kirk had a clear shot at a one-on-one race against Roland K. Burris, he’d leap at the opportunity… but the problem for him is that pesky Democratic primary, which is all but certain to weed out Burris from contention. While on the surface, Kirk polls very competitively against any Democrat for the Senate race other than Lisa Madigan (who does not appear to be a likely candidate), a disproportionate number of undecideds are Democratic voters (around 30% in the Schakowsky and Giannoulias head-to-heads), compared to only 19% of Republicans who are on the fence. In other words, once that money starts rolling, the Democratic nominee will have a lot more room for growth.

And who may that nominee be? PPP took a look at the Senate primary yesterday, too (4/24-26, likely Democratic voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 20

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 49

Undecided: 30

Roland Burris (D-inc): 16

Jan Schakowsky (D): 26

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Undecided: 21

Roland Burris (D-inc): 13

Jan Schakowsky (D): 11

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 19

Lisa Madigan (D): 44

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.8%)

No matter which way you slice it, Burris is done. As for Lisa Madigan, it seems that whichever race she chooses, she’s favored to win it (see David’s piece yesterday for the gubernatorial primary numbers). She’s also performing even more strongly than incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the gubernatorial general election against GOP state Sen. Bill Brady:

Lisa Madigan (D): 46

Bill Brady (R): 27

Undecided: 26

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39

Bill Brady (R): 32

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Lisa’s got options.

32 thoughts on “IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll”

  1. See here:

    If in a few months (say, by July), it looks like Kirk has a serious shot against either Jan or Alexi, Madigan is going to have to leave Gov for Quinn and do what is best for the country by torpedoing Kirk the assclown.

    The good news is that his house seat will soon get changed to “likely Dem” in the congressional ratings tables.

  2. Several Illinois moves too.

    TENNESSEE | District 3: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)

    PENNSYLVANIA | District 12: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/30/09)

    OHIO | District 15: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (4/30/09)

    NEW YORK | District 20: Toss Up to Lean Democrat (4/30/09)

    IOWA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (4/30/09)

    ILLINOIS | District 10: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (4/30/09)

    ILLINOIS | District 8: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (4/30/09)

    ILLINOIS | District 6: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)

    CALIFORNIA | District 48: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)

    CALIFORNIA | District 3: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (4/30/09)

    RHODE ISLAND | Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (4/30/09)

  3. if he runs.  Maybe I havent really been political during a time where the GOP had any prominence in Illinois (why did that one guy beat Mosley-Braun?) but I dunno, any guy giving up a tough seat to hold to Congress for an even tougher seat to hold in the Senate is letting ambition cloud his judgement.

    But whatev, thanks for the seat!  

  4. I know we dont discuss presidential politics here but she better run for president at some point.  With that kind of polling and approval ratings, we need to get it through women politicians’ heads that they dont need the resume and stature of Hillary to run for President and Madigan is certainly someone I’m looking to running.

    Running for Gov and having her dad’s position being tied around her neck wouldnt help in a presidential run unless she balances it all out.  But I’d rather her run for Gov and have Giannoulias run for Senate.  He does worst against Kirk than Madigan but come on, this is Illinois, we know how those undecideds will most likely lean.

  5. is that Obama is going to endorse any Democrat not named Burris for the November election.

    Republicans have about zero chance of winning this Senate seat.

  6. The thought that once the campaign really starts the Dems will come home is a good one- and the IL GOP is in the middle of quite the circular firing squad, so some of those Republicans might NOT come home- but Schakowsky and Giannoulias both have personal issues that would make for good attack ads. Once the campaign really starts, the moderates could stack those issues on top of Blago-palooza and move to Kirk.

    OTOH, these numbers probably auger well for Madigan getting in the governor’s race. Brady’s the likely Republican nominee (he’s on the conservative wing of the party that was ignored last time, and it’s his “turn”), so if she’s posterizing him, she’s got little reason not to pull the trigger.

  7. But can we say ceiling? Against anybody not named Burris, he gets in the region of 35%. He won’t win against Madigan, becuase she’s known and liked (even amongst conservatives).

    Against Giannoulias and Schakowsky, he loses moderates by seven and twelve points respectively. By my back of the envelope calculations, Schakowsky would lose by only a few points even if she takes only 2/3 of Democratic undecideds, 1/3 of Republican undecideds and 1/3 of independent undecideds (and that would take a pretty terrible campaign). By the same metric, Giannoulias would be at or around the 50% mark.

    Kirk might make us spend some money, but a decent campaign (especially one involving Obama) will not let him get above 45%.

  8. … remember how, say, Wicker was originally polling behind Musgrove?  And then won by like 10%.

    Not gonna happen.  Obama won’t allow his own seat to be taken.

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