Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) for PEG PAC (“end of last week”, registered voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38
Tom Ridge (R): 39Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42
Pat Toomey (R): 36
(MoE: ±2.8%)
PEG PAC describes itself as “Pennsylvania’s oldest pro-business political action committee and the affiliated PAC of the Pennsylvania Business Council (PBC)”. I personally don’t know much about them, but I think the remarks of PBC’s president tell us everything we need to know about where their political biases lie: “We don’t know how [Specter’s] positions and voting might change now that he has joined the Democrat Party.” Democrat Party, huh? And Susquehanna is a Republican firm, FWIW.
Anyhow, the Ridge numbers are pretty similar to the Quinnipiac poll we saw yesterday, but this poll makes Toomey out to be a lot more competitive. Color me skeptical – though Dave Weigel does report that Toomey claims to have already raised half a million bucks since his April 15th entrance. In any event, Research 2000 will have a new poll out soon, so I’m waiting for that. And unlike the two surveys we’ve seen so far, it will test both the D and R primaries.
Speaking of Dem primaries, the anti-Specter sentiment appears to be heating up from labor quarters. SEIU’s Andy Stern said yesterday, “It is hard to imagine any union supporting a candidate in the Democratic Party for the US Senate who doesn’t have strong positions on both healthcare and Employee Free Choice.” An AFL-CIO official said something similar. Personally, I like Stern’s framing – yet another flip-flop on EFCA from Specter (were one to happen) would hardly be soothing and would not constitute a “strong position.” So this leaves the door open for a primary challenge even if Specter does change his mind for the umpteenth time. And I increasingly think I’d like to see that challenge.
a strong challenge to Specter in the Dem primary would be good for the Democrats because it would help Toomey.
Assume that the Republicans get their best-case scenario and Tom Ridge enters the primary to fight Toomey. If there’s no significant action in the Dem primary, moderate voters looking for something to do (the same guys who registered to vote in the 2008 Dem presidential primaries because there was nothing going on in the Republican) will gravitate toward the Republican race, and they would overwhelmingly support Ridge over Toomey, bolstering him in a fight that would otherwise seem pretty tough.
Quite outside the merits of either candidate, a Sestak v. Specter battle would keep voters that Ridge would desperately need away from the Republican primary.
I almost think that this poll is here to give the GOP a feeling that Toomey is possibly electable. I don’t see how he is. If this poll is accurate, Toomey could counter Ridge and say that he’s within distance of Specter, and that Ridge is too outside of GOP mainstream to consider him a viable candidate with the GOP’s best interest in hand.
Is Ridge a type of guy who would consider running as an Independent? I wonder how a three-way race between Toomey/Specter/Ridge would look like. I doubt that this is remotely possible, but it would make things interesting.
I am glad to see Toomey get some encouraging poll numbers. He’s much weaker than Ridge and probably much weaker than Gerlach. If it looks completely hopeless, the GOP establishment will only be encouraged to get someone else to run and beat Toomey in the primary. Whether we have Specter or Sestak, I’d rather face Toomey.
if Specter gets a tough Dem primary opponent, maybe he’ll pull a double Lieberman and switch AGAIN to run as an independent. Anybody know if PA law would allow that (and what the dates would be)?
I’d bet a lot of money that Specter is at least thinking through that option. His basic view seems to be: I can win a general election, so it’s not fair for me to lose in a primary.
There’s no way Toomey could even come close to Specter. Not unless he sweeps the west in a way that a Republican never has in a competitive election.