Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (4/27-30, registered voters):
Beau Biden (D): 34
Mike Castle (R): 55
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Numbers like these are the sort of thing that may nudge Castle into actually making a race of it, but bear in mind that Susquehanna is the same Republican firm that put out a somewhat dodgy-looking PA-Sen poll yesterday, so perhaps a grain of salt is merited here. A poll conducted in March by the much more reputable Public Policy Polling also had Castle leading Biden, Jr., but only by 44-36.
UPDATE: It also just occurs to me that Susquehanna is the same firm that released a poll last fall showing Democratic Rep. John Murtha leading his no-name Republican challenger by only five points. Murtha went on to win by 16 points in November.
Probably about dead even. About as expected. Doubt Castle would have much chance.
Castle is quite popular in Delaware. He ran ahead of McCain by a LOT last year.
While I think there is something wrong with this poll, do not discount Castle. He is just loved in the state. WHy? I have no idea, he is not moderate, is very awkward and not personable, and its past his prime. I’m also not a fan of Beau running either, I would rather see someone else run.
I think Biden v. Castle would be a real dogfight.
At this stage, though, Biden’s not even in-country. Expect his return to the US to get a media blitz, with a lot of interviews, etc.
gain Senate seats in 2010 after all
I’m a huge Joe Biden fan so I don’t believe in Biden overkill, but to be honest with you I would have a hard time voting against Castle too because of the way he was out in front on stem cell research. I guess I’m just glad I don’t live in Delaware in this situation.
If I were Beau however I’m not even sure I would want the seat because people may scream nepotism although Beau does have a record of accomplishment of his own I’m sure. I haven’t really followed his term as AG.
…not take ANYTHING for granted. It’s a tiny state, shake everyone’s hand at least once and remind them of the importance of seniority long term.
Remember the OUT party USUALLY picks up seats. The math advantage helps offset that, but the political landscape can change a lot in 18 months. it is possible that Democrats hold only 60-62 seats after 2010.