Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).
Senate primary matchups:
Kendrick Meek (D): 26
Dan Gelber (D): 16
Undecided: 58Charlie Crist (R): 53
Marco Rubio (R): 18
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±6%)
Senate general election matchups:
Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Charlie Crist (R): 55
Undecided: 21Dan Gelber (D): 22
Charlie Crist (R): 57
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
Governor primary matchups:
Jeb Bush (R): 64
Bill McCollum (R): 13
Charles Bronson (R): 2
Undecided: 21Bill McCollum (R): 39
Charles Bronson (R): 12
Undecided: 49
(MoE: ±6%)
Governor general election matchups:
Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)
Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 26 (29)Alex Sink (D): 37
Charles Bronson (R): 29
Undecided: 34Alex Sink (D): 34
Jeb Bush (R): 50
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4%)
The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I’m including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client – the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.
1. I wonder if Meek is considering re-entering his local Congressional primary?
2. Can Jeb Bush run again?
3. Is there anything Meek can do to get Crist below 50%?
4. Can I stop asking questions now?
I’m rooting wholeheartedly for Sink, and I think she can do it if we help.
I would be a shame if McCollum slipped through. I think Sink can take him, but it’s going to be expensive.
Sink has room to grow, as her don’t knows are high. But that also negates the benefit she takes from her greatest advantage, her performance as CFO. I’m just not seeing the jubilation here. It’s going to be a long, hard, expensive slog, and we may still lose. Better than running against Crist, but we aren’t out of the woods yet.
Especially since rumours of McCollum’s political death are exaggerated. Caveats about undecideds aside, he currently leads by 10 points amongst undecideds and performs better than the generic Republican that Bronson represents.
As for the Senate race, we’re likely to lose, but I think those numbers are unrepresentative. 57 and 77% of likely Democratic primary voters don’t know who Meek or Gelber are. Amongst the state as a whole, that’s 67 and 80%. Right now Crist edges Gelber amongst Democrats. These things will not be true in November 2010.
Although it’ll likely just be a question of whether we lose 60-40 or 55-45. If it builds us a suitable candidate for future statewide races (like Charlie Crist, defeated 63-37 by Graham in 1998) then I’ll take it.
those numbers smell fishy, they’re crap really. Bush didn’t do near that well even against Bill McBride.
I lived in FL in the 80s. At that time, McCollum was considered the nutter Republican congressman in the area with Bill Young and Mike Billirakis (gus’ father) the moderates. His impeachment manager stint made it worse.
McCollum’s web site has him picking a nice safe mostly irrelevant topic as his cause as Attorney General: child pornography. He’s obviously out to sleep on consumer issues, health issues, etc.
I think a good campaign can once again take him down.
God, I hope McCollum has some skeletons in the closet, because having a Charles Bronson in the race would be comedy gold.