VA-Gov: SUSA Has McAuliffe Holding Lead, but Deeds Moves Up 4

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.

28 thoughts on “VA-Gov: SUSA Has McAuliffe Holding Lead, but Deeds Moves Up 4”

  1. SUSA has a new MN Gov poll for KSTP TV (Sorry, no link yet). They polled Pawlenty against 9 differnt challengers. They showed half the results on the early news and will show the other half on their late news. Results released so far (of course they released the tier 2 challengers first).

    Pawlenty 51%

    Kelliher 34%

    Pawlenty 51%

    Thissen 32%

    Pawlenty 51%

    Marty 34%

    Pawlenty 52%

    Bakk 34%

    Pawlenty 50%

    Gaertner 36%

    They will release results for Entenza, Rybak, Chris Coleman and Dayton on their late news.

  2. For all of the Sturm und Drang about T-Mac being evil, evil, evil, it looks like the Democrat who would have the hardest time against McDonnell is actually Moran.

    And if you look at how the undecideds are allocated, it actually looks like either T-Mac or Deeds (if he can come up with cash after the primary) could beat McDonnell.

  3. this is a must win for our side. if the rethugs manage to take both va and nj their noise machine will be unbearable. a total rejection of the dems! it makes me ill just thinking about it.

  6. The guy’s a joke.  He parachutes into Virginia after living in Florida and New York, after helping to make a mess of the party as DNC chairman, and he comes to these voters with his horrible corporate record and has the call to ask for ordinary folks’ votes like he’s been looking out for them all his life.  I’m sorry, when we elect guys like this, we lose all credibility with poor, working, and middle-class Americans, the people we need to be stringing together in our coalition.  Looking ahead, I don’t think McAuliffe would be able to maintain his seeming strength over the long run of the general election, and as much as I hate to say it if we nominate such a cynical choice for a candidate then we might deserve a kick in the rear from the voters.  I would much rather chance it with Deeds or Moran (I really like Deeds though I agree more with Moran) and a come from behind underdog campaign then have Terry trying to buy this race and giving voters a reason to be cynical about the party and our commitment to them.

  7. If he can, then hopefully the Moran voters start to jump to Deeds in the last few days, if the polls continue this trend.  I agree T-Mac is a risk.  

    Is Deeds a good guy? an electable guy? Is he taking a lot of punches so far, or not so much?  What kind of a match is he for McDonnell?  

    If the only obstacle is money that can and likely will be removed if Deeds is the nominee.   Losing VA and NJ would be a serious setback for The dem’s.  The GOP will spin the crap out of that.    

  8. I don’t know VA politics that well, but it seems like there’s a bit of a disconnect between the progressive base and the average primary voter or general election voter.

    I mean one could easily have accused Mark Warner of being an evil corporate shill buying the Gov’s mansion, too.  And thank God he did.  MacAuliffe’s sins are unclear to me.

    He is accused of mismanaging the DNC by neglecting the grassroots.  Fair criticism and an honest philosphical difference, but again, the average VA resident couldn’t care less, if they could be bothered to see the distinction.  And I believe that most of our losses in the early 2000s and most of our victories in the later 2000s can be attributed to GW Bush, not either Howard Dean or McAuliffe’s strategery:)

    I hear people saying he’s “poison” or “evil,” but those are just ugly names.  I want to hear the real issues and how they affect his electability.  He’s a “carpetbagger?”  Well, how long has he lived in VA?  Is that how VA residents (many of whom may have lived in VA for a shorter time than he has) see him?

    What are his commitments re: right to work states, school and infrastucture investment, a woman’s right to choose, the environment?

    I really don’t care much about any of these candidates, I just want a democrat to win, and as i dig around, I can’t seem to find a debilitating weakness.

  9. McAuliffe 36%

    Moran 22%

    Deeds 13%.

    The only thing that all the polls agree on is that McAuliffe is pulling away.  Ugh.

  10. Once the primary season is over, I just hope the losers of the primary can support the winner in the general election.  Overall I’m not surprised by these numbers, but I’m more worried about the enthusiasm gap within the Democratic Caucus.  The winner of the primary will probably have no more than 40-45% of the vote, and that may be optimistic.  Hopefully the base will come together so we can keep the governor’s mansion another 4 years.

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