• LA-Sen: David Vitter may get a serious primary challenger after all (Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins and ex-Rep. John Cooksey have declined, and SoS Jay Dardenne has been laying low). It’s someone we haven’t seen in a while, though: former state Elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who let her interest be known last week. Terrell’s last appearance in the spotlight was the 2002 Senate race, where she lost narrowly to Mary Landrieu. Terrell is the only Republican woman to have ever held office in Louisiana.
• NY-Sen-B: Like a giant game of Whack-a-mole, Kirsten Gillibrand jammed a couple potential primary challengers back into their holes last week, but now a new one popped up: Rep. Jose Serrano. The Bronx-based Serrano might be able to make a lot of hay out of the immigration issue, but he may not have the cash to make a race of it (although as an Appropriations cardinal, he’s well-connected). Meanwhile, Gillibrand nailed down endorsements from three other Reps. — John Hall, Mike Arcuri, and Scott Murphy — as well as Nassau County Dem party chair Jay Jacobs (important because he has a lot of sway over Rep. Carolyn McCarthy).
• PA-Sen: Roll Call tried to pin down the Democratic House members from Pennsylvania on whether or not they’d endorse Arlen Specter in a potential Democratic primary with Rep. Joe Sestak. Interestingly, PA’s most liberal Dem, Chaka Fattah, was probably the most enthusiastic and unconditional endorser of Specter, while its most conservative Dem, Jason Altmire, was most reluctant to offer an endorsement one way or the other, although more out of admiration for Sestak than on ideological grounds. Tim Holden also endorsed Specter and Bob Brady came as close as possible to it, while Patrick Murphy took a “wait and see” attitude and the others simply punted the question.
• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren (having recently shot himself in the foot by calling Charles Schumer “that Jew”) is now vacillating and may not run in the GOP Senate primary after all, despite having announced his candidacy.
• IL-Sen: Here’s some confirmation on what we speculated last week: Rep. Mark Kirk isn’t lost in space; he’s just deferring any decisions on the Senate race because he’s waiting to see what AG Lisa Madigan does. He reportedly won’t run for Senate if Madigan does.
• FL-Gov: Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson will announce today that he won’t run for the open governor’s seat, leaving an unimpeded path to the GOP nomination for AG Bill McCollum. Bronson is term-limited out of his job in 2010 and looking to move up, but couldn’t buck the pressure from state chair Jim Greer — I mean, the guy doesn’t have a Death Wish.
• CO-Gov: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis officially filed yesterday to enter the Colorado governor’s race, amidst sniping that he started soliciting funds before filing his campaign paperwork. State Senate minority leader Josh Penry also launched into an oblique attack on McInnis, suggesting he might be interested in a primary battle.
• CA-Gov: Dianne Feinstein, occasionally rumored to be interested in what has to be the least desirable job in America (California governor), has said that she “might” run for governor next year, depending on her assessment of the other candidates’ plans for dealing with California’s seemingly perpetual budget crisis. Polls that have included Feinstein have shown her dominating the race if she got in.
• IL-13: 71-year-old Rep. Judy Biggert just confirmed that she’ll be running for re-election in 2010, despite a return engagement with Scott Harper, who held her to 54%, and the district’s shift to only R+1. (Of course, her inclusion in the first round of 10 in the NRCC’s Patriots program Tuesday showed her hand already.)
• AL-02: Republicans have at least one candidate lined up to go against Rep. Bobby Bright as he seeks his first re-election in this R+16 district: 32-year-old Montgomery city councilor and attorney Martha Roby. GOP State Rep. Jay Love, who narrowly lost to Bright last time, may also try again.
• MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2008, may have to face off against both of the same challengers again in 2010: state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters. Former interim mayor Ken Cockrel also is mentioned as interested. Kilpatrick may be less vulnerable in 2010, though, as the brouhaha surrounding her son (former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) recedes in the distance.
• Maps: Here’s another interesting map for the geography nerds out there. It’s a map of which party controls all the state House seats throughout the South. (It’s a lot bluer than you might initially think.)
Showing a big primary lead over Ron Sparks and leading the two unknown Republicans who have already announced.
I can’t find the link in my history. IIRC I saw it yesterday and I didn’t post anything because the daily scoop wasn’t up yet.
I like Mary Waters, as she almost beat Mama Cheeks last time out. However, she’s currently under investigation for “unethical behavior,” so she’s out probably for 2010. The buzz I’m hearing–and you have the wrong Cockrel here–is that Ken Cockrel’s white step-mother Sheila Cockrel (who announced her retirement from City Council after 16 years) may run against Mama Cheeks in the primary. I just hope Martha Scott doesn’t act as an inner-city spoiler (Waters carried the suburban Grosse Pointes by a pretty hefty margin in the 2008 primary, but Scott picked off the inner-city anti-Kilpatrick vote, thus allowing Mama Cheeks to squeeze through a narrow win).
Note: I call her Mama Cheeks because in Kwame Kilpatrick’s desperate Detroit mayoral re-election campaign from 2005, she told a black audience to vote for “Y’all’s boy.”
Further note: There are few areas north of the Mason-Dixon as mired in racial tension as southeastern Michigan.
and replacing her with a better candidate will be very important for 2012 redistricting, as we can seriously unpack MI-13 and MI-14 if we have strong incumbents there. My idea is to add Livingston Co, Western Oakland Co, and Northern Macomb/St. Clair Co to these districts using a thin line from Detroit to these areas and some touch-point continuity.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
In a more serious note, I really hope she doesn’t run. She’ll dominate the primary and probably win the general but I don’t think she would be a good governor.
such a beautiful blue, especially MS and AL. AR is so completely blue its amazing, that’s the 74-26 majority for you.
I don’t really mind Carolyn Kilpatrick, she’s a good Democrat and a strong voice for Detroit, serving as an effective congresswoman. She really shouldn’t be judged for her sons actions or for not abandoning her son and throwing him out to the wolves to protect her on ass politically.
What are the chances that FL Republicans get the 2/3 majority in their state legislatures that would enable them to override an Alex Sink veto of a gerrymandered Congressional map?
Politico ran a story about Suzanne Haik Terrell possibly challenging David Vitter. Then it updated it, stating she won’t go through with a primary challenge. The story mentioned party unity as a reason for her decision and she said good things about Vitter. I think Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is now the only potential primary candidate that could come close to Vitter in a GOP Senate primary. Vitter looks to be much more safe than he was months ago. I wonder what Democrat will go against him in the general election. Last I heard, a state senator and a rich businessman were the most interested in going against Vitter.
http://northgeorgia.timesfreep…