Quinnipiac University (5/20-26, “Pennsylvania voters,” early May in parens).
Primaries:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50
Joe Sestak (D): 21
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.1%)Pat Toomey (R): 38
Jim Gerlach (R): 10
Peg Luksik (R): 3
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.3%)
General:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (53)
Pat Toomey (R): 37 (33)
Undecided: 14 (10)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45
Jim Gerlach (R): 36
Undecided: 15Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 35
Undecided: 23Joe Sestak (D): 36
Jim Gerlach (R): 30
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±2.8%)
I still gag whenever I have to put a (D) after Arlen Specter’s name, and I don’t think I’m the only one. Specter’s approval margin among both Dems and independents dropped a dozen points over the last month. And the ratio of Dems willing to vote for him fell from 85-4 to 73-10. These numbers are still pretty high, though, so is there enough discontent for Joe Sestak to get in?
Interestingly, Sestak & Jim Gerlach have almost identical approvals, yet Sestak starts with a six-point lead. That points up the natural advantage Dems hold over Republicans in Pennsylvania these days.
P.S. In a move sure to anger wingnuts already steamed about the NRSC’s endorsement of Charlie Crist, Big John Cornyn said it was “premature” for the GOP to back Toomey, even though there are no other Republicans in the race (and the prospects of any getting in look slim).
If he’s going to have to fight another hard race (and he is), why not go for the gold?
His angle against Toomey is a little unclear, though.
Again, I hope Sestak does not do this, I don’t see him winning this and all he will end up doing is put at risk a House seat and also a seat in the PA Legislature most likely. Why progressives are lining up behind him when hes not that much more liberal than Specter (If at all) boggles my mind. We should be putting effort behind Jack Conway, Lee Fischer or Robin Carnahan right now.
Why doesn’t Sestak run for Governor? He would most likely be the biggest name and once he starts spending money would be the likely favorite I would think.
This is a Win/Win for Democrats – Arlen Specter switched parties because he would lose in a primary to a very conservative Republican – Toomey. Now a threatened primary battle with Sestak for the Democratic nomination looms!!
The key votes on Employee Free Choice Act and Health Care Reform are soon to be cast. Specter tried to win over the Republicans by promising to vote against both of these. But now the unions and Dems are saying that they won’t vote for Specter unless he changes his positions and supports Employee Free Choice and Health Care Reform
So we get a filibuster proof Senate with Specter as a Democrat and a chance that he will see his political future now lies with appeasing the Democrats. Unions were a BIG factor in his reelection last time – he supported the Employee Free Choice Act then. And they are going all out to pressure him now.
Unions/blacks/women decide elections in Pennsylvania. Specter also has to overcome his support for Clarence Thomas with blacks and women. This can get very interering.
Sestak makes the possibility of a hotly contested primary a reality. And remember, Pennsylvania has a “sore loser” law so if you lose the primary, you are out. No Lieberman’s in PA.