Lot of NY-23 stuff to talk about. First up, the timing of the actual election. Hotline sez ($):
NY Board of Elections spokesperson John Conklin writes, if the vacancy happens soon, Gov. David Paterson (D) has the option of calling a special, “and then everything happens the same way it did” in NY-20, with each party picking its candidates and the general election is scheduled 30-40 days from his proclamation. Paterson also has the option of scheduling the special during the fall of ’09, in which case there would be a primary and general.
There may be pressure on Paterson to wait until the fall to save the state money on a special election. However, that would mean NY-23 would go without representation for five months, which may be too long to be politically acceptable. If we do have a special, then the county chairs of the eleven counties which make up the 23rd will all have a say in who each party’s nominee is. Below is a chart of those counties, ranked by population & including voter registration numbers (PDF):
| County | Pop. | %age | RVs | Dem | GOP | Indy | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oswego | 122,377 | 19% | 73,808 | 19,130 | 35,079 | 14,235 | 5,364 |
| St. Lawrence | 111,931 | 17% | 60,347 | 22,686 | 22,362 | 11,378 | 3,921 |
| Jefferson | 111,738 | 17% | 55,694 | 16,762 | 24,656 | 10,689 | 3,587 |
| Clinton | 79,894 | 12% | 46,676 | 17,472 | 15,682 | 10,124 | 3,398 |
| Madison | 69,441 | 11% | 40,633 | 11,472 | 17,011 | 8,687 | 3,463 |
| Franklin | 51,134 | 8% | 26,465 | 10,066 | 9,889 | 4,660 | 1,850 |
| Lewis | 26,944 | 4% | 17,036 | 4,563 | 9,152 | 2,376 | 945 |
| Oneida (part) | 26,879 | 4% | 14,899 | 4,146 | 7,022 | 2,736 | 995 |
| Essex (part) | 24,661 | 4% | 16,459 | 4,315 | 8,285 | 2,703 | 1,156 |
| Fulton (part) | 23,983 | 4% | 14,952 | 3,567 | 8,231 | 2,224 | 930 |
| Hamilton | 5,379 | 1% | 4,359 | 938 | 2,769 | 454 | 198 |
| Totals: | 654,361 | 371,328 | 115,117 | 160,138 | 70,266 | 25,807 |
Who might run – or get tapped? The list of potential names is getting longer. Culled from a variety of sources, so far on the GOP side we have:
- Assemb. Diedre “Dede” Scozzafava
- Assemb. Janet Duprey
- Assemb. Will Barclay
- Former state Sen. Ray Meier (who ran in NY-24 in 2006)
- Former state Sen. Jim Wright
- Businesswoman Kay Stafford
- McHugh Chief-of-Staff Robert Taub
- Franklin County DA Derek Champagne
- Essex County DA Julie Garcia
- Terry Gach, VP of a biomedical research institute
- Michael F. Joyce, owner of a yacht company
Please let it be the yacht guy. Of note, state Sen. Betty Little has already said no. As for the Dems:
- State Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine
- State Sen. David Valesky
- Assemb. Addie Jenne Russell
- Daniel J. French, a former Moynihan aide
- Michael P. Oot, the 2008 nominee
- State party Chairwoman June O’Neill
- John Rhodes, who weighed a 2008 run
- St. Lawrence County DA Nicole Duvé
Count me among those who do not want to see Dems risk our narrow-as-can-be majority in the state Senate in order to try picking up NY-23 – especially if, as some speculate, the district will be eliminated come 2012.
Clearly the more important thing is keeping the state Senate.
The Republicans would be basically non-perceivable in the entire NE if we were to win control of this seat being that it's such a big red blob on the map. Sure that may sound insignificant (especially with the GOP maintaining NY 26) but visuals are powerful and I'd love to see blue take over big districts like this (makes me a sucker for Rural Democrats).
For comparison:
Ellen Tauscher in CA-10 was nominated to the State Dept. back on Mar. 18th and still hasn’t had her nomination hearing, though supposedly it’s set for next week June 9. Then the confirmation votes are still some time beyond that. Then she’ll resign. Then Arnold can set a special election date.
So say that John McHugh’s confirmation happens at a similar pace.
Then this special election easily might not happen until the fall.
Champagne vs. Oot?
Champagne vs. French?
Note that Aubertine is one of the 3 or 4 Dems in the State Senate against same-sex marriage. With him out of the picture, the threshold becomes lower, no? Not that we necessarily want another anti-equality Democrat in Congress either, but, as some point out, the congressional district is likely to disappear in a couple of years.
the idea of running against a yacht company owner is just great.
Addie Jenne Russell still sounds the best to me on our side. Nicole Duvé also sounds good, she seems to have won a tough race already. No to any of the State Senators.
Is anyone looking at the mayors, school board members, and other local officials as potential candidates?
I was amazed by this appointment. I’ve read some remarks (not sure whether here or somewhere else) that “Obama is good” in a strategic political kind of way by picking one of the few New York Republicans left in the House, giving the Democrats an opportunity to try to win this seat.
My question to all of you is, do you think that in moves like this and the nomination of Utah Gov. Huntsman, President Obama is primarily motivated by the possibility of partisan gain or simply thinks these guys are the best available for the position? Part of the reason I ask is that lots of well-justified dismay was expressed over the nominations of Democratic governors and senators who clearly were not chosen with the view in mind of how to increase the number of Democrats in the Senate and state houses.
My second question is, do you think Representative McHugh will be a good Secretary of the Army? I hope these questions aren’t off-topic for this thread; please let me know if they are.