CA-Gov: Brown Beating Newsom; Foy May Get In

J. Moore Methods (D) (6/20-23, registered voters):

Jerry Brown (D): 46

Gavin Newsom (D): 26

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Here’s the first poll of the California governor’s primary on the Democratic side since LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa dropped out (although it’s a Democratic pollster, it’s not an internal). There aren’t any trendlines so we can’t see if AG Jerry Brown got a bump out of Villaraigosa’s disappearing act (Brown, the former governor, is better known in southern California than his rival, SF Mayor Gavin Newsom), but Brown now has a convincing lead. Brown leads even more among voters 60+ (i.e. those old enough to remember Brown’s first turn as Governor): 54-20. Newsom leads among the 18-to-39 set, 37-26.

There’s one other interesting new tidbit in the Governor’s race: Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy says he’s now “strongly” looking into the race and will decide within the next couple months. Your first response is probably: who? Well, Foy is coming from a small regional base (affluent suburbia west of Los Angeles), and is decidely money-impaired compared with mega-self-funders Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner. Here’s the rub, though: Foy is a pro-lifer, and a doctrinaire fiscal conservative who helped lead the fight against Proposition 1A. Currently, the conservative movement has absolutely no horse in the race, with the primary field containing three pro-choice business/establishment conservatives (Whitman, Poizner, and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell). If movement conservatives unite behind Foy while the moderate vote gets split three ways, Foy could suddenly be a force to be reckoned with.

RaceTracker: CA-Gov

26 thoughts on “CA-Gov: Brown Beating Newsom; Foy May Get In”

  1. that Brown should be favoured reasonably strongly here.  He’s run statewide before (many times), and his support gets stronger and stronger the older the voters get, which is a tremendous advantage since, generally speaking, likelihood of voting increases with age.

    I’m pro-Brown, myself; he’s got a pretty good record overall, comes across as very competent, and his returning for another term would be a fun story.  I really dislike Newsom; I agree with his civil rights positions, but I don’t think he’s been at all effective in his advocacy for them.

  2. I’m going to be able to vote by then, going to be an exciting year in California, especially for a political junkie like myself. Also I live in the Bay Area, where Newsom and Brown come from. The Republicans seem determined to clear the primary field for Whitman in hopes that she would have a better shot in the general election. Especially if Brown and Newsom bloody each other up during the primary.

  3. In California it can mean a lot of things.

    Nominally they are:

    1. pro-choice

    2. limited pro-gay

    3. some pro-environment leanings

    4. all of the above

    5. some of the above

    I do not want democrats to face any of these moderate republicans. They (ie D) have a good chance of losing.

    I am also a little wary of having Gov Moonbeam as our candidate. But gavin newsom does not inspire a lot of confidence either. My choice was the lt gov who withdrew.

  4. Inless Feinstein gets In I think Brown wins.Remember Older Democrats helped Hillary won the California Primary In 2008

    against President Obama.Although she also had Asians and

    Hispanics.Brown may be the best shot at taking the governorship back.If I lived In California I would be

    voting for Brown.

  5. First, there are old trendlines.

    The SF Chronicle printed numbers from the same poll showing 2:1 movement for Brown:

    With Villaraigosa in the lineup, the numbers read:

    — Brown, 33 percent.

    — Newsom, 20 percent.

    — Villaraigosa, 17 percent.

    Take the L.A. mayor out, and it’s:

    — Brown, 46 percent.

    — Newsom, 26 percent.

    But the big jump is in fundraising where Newsom is just getting slaughtered. Here are the numbers from the late reports since last Monday when Antonio pulled out:

    Jerry Brown:    $303,330

    Gavin Newsom: $56,800

    That is with Newsom getting checks under a $25,900 cap and Brown still under the $6,500 AG cap. And everyone expects Newsom’s CoH to be miserable with how quickly he’s burning money.

    All this despite Newsom campaigning pretty much full time for a year now. And while he’s been on the road campaigning, things in SF have been going to crap. Right now Newsom’s getting protested by LGBT and Labor at City Hall:

    Robert Haaland is a labor activist and long time leader of the local chapter of Pride at Work. He told us the budget cuts “are no different from what Schwarzenegger is doing. No new revenue, deep cuts to health and human services. It’d be fine if he was running as a Republican governor.”

    Haaland pointed out that when Newsom ran against Supervisor Matt Gonzales in 2003, Newsom was neutral on gay marriage, and Gonzales got the majority of votes in District 8, which includes the Castro.

    “He changed his position on marriage, but that doesn’t give him license to use marriage as a shield for budget cuts affecting LGBT and poor people,” Haaland said.

    And [Harvey Milk Club president Rafael] Mandelman sums up, “It’s great to celebrate marriage, but for a lot of people it’s a luxury.”

    Hopefully Newsom will resist the calls for him to save face and pull out as he’ll make Brown an even better nominee.

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