FL-Sen: Crist Cruising; Meek Over Brown

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (6/24-26, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, 5/14-18 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 51 (53_

Marco Rubio (R): 23 (18)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Kendrick Meek (D): 27

Corrine Brown (D): 12

Undecided: 61

(MoE: ±6%)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (55)

Kendrick Meek (D): 26 (24)

Undecided: 26 (21)

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Corrine Brown (D): 24

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Not really sure what to say about these numbers, given how similar they are to those from other pollsters. Taegan Goddard notes: “Among Republican voters who recognize both candidates, Crist barely edges Rubio, 33% to 31%.” That’s good news for Rubio, though the margin of error among this tiny sub-sample (which can’t number more than about 150, given the internals) would be at least 8%. Still, Florida’s late primary is over a year away, giving Rubio plenty of time.

Here’s some food for thought: Would Charlie Crist have a better chance at winning this Senate seat if he ran as an independent – or switched to the Democrats?

15 thoughts on “FL-Sen: Crist Cruising; Meek Over Brown”

  1. Yes, I would support him with arms wide open.

    Specter is a “welcome aboard, now let’s teak the edges.” Crist is fine by me mostly as he is. Unless someone can point something huge out to me that I am missing.

  2. It is low of the WSJ editorial board to do that.  But over the years there has never been a thing too low for the WSJ editorial board.

    Let’s see how would it be easiest for Crist to win.

    If he ran in a primary for one of the GOP, he would have more money and a higher general approval than his opponent, but Rubio can out-pure him and it is conceivable that Rubio could win in a low-turnout GOP only primary.

    The same if he ran in a Dem primary with Meek also having a claim to large percentage of the primary electorate because he is black.  And unlike with Specter, who the heavyweight Dems have rallied around, Crist would be on his own.  Clinton has invested heavily in Meek already.

    Running as an independent eliminates the nuisance of a messy primary but removes most of the support structure that a candidate needs to build a campaign.  No DSC or RSC, almost no elected officials, and money that would come easily if he was the nominee of one of the parties wouldn’t come at all.  Swing voters are also the least reliable voters.

    I think he is taking the easiest route to victory.  It’s true that Rubio has lots of room to grow.  But if Crist has 3 or 4 times the money, he will be able to define Rubio and himself.  And he will be able to travel around with John McCain.

  3. Let him flip after the election a la Jumping Jim. Better to let him draw money away from other races.

    And he’d be toast as an Indy. if he gets the nomination, he can count on hardcore GOP holding their nose and pulling the lever in a matchup with Meek/Brown. As an indy, he’d be lucky to pull 20 percent of GOP. And he might do as well with Dems, putting Rubio in a good situation if he could split the Indies in a 3-way.

    Look at Crist’s approvals. The strength and mystery of his numbers have been doing so well with Dems and Indies. Always pushing into the low 60s, high 50s at worst. And there has always been an amazing lack of gap between his overall approvals and his GOP approvals. Always had a good 25 percent of GOP locked in negative. Outside of a little drop during the election cycle last fall when folks were all in partisan mode, this has been consistent. And he popped back up with Dems and Indies after the first of the year when folks settled down from the election.

    Has started slipping a little again in wake of budget crisis and property tax and hurricane insurance vetoes, but he still has strong numbers.

    But he left his right flank open to achieve these numbers. Let him pay the price now. Guy’s been begging for a primary.

    And do not forget the guy is bailing while failing. Getting out of a job right when it starts getting real hard is not exactly a brilliant PR move to paint himself as a strong leader. On top of his muddled messaging, he is devaluing himself as messenger.

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