Quinnipiac University (7/8-12, likely voters, 6/3-8 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn’t won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn’t won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it’s certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.
But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy – and the deep unhappiness it engenders – weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not – fair or not – the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you’re a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn’t start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.
Ordinarily, we don’t like to move races with unindicted incumbents past “Tossup.” But there’s nothing ordinary about 2009, or these poll numbers:
If you want to see what a classic “Jersey Dem sweats one out” race looks like, check out this chart of Bob Menendez vs. Tom Kean, Jr. from 2006 (turn off “poll results” to better see the trendlines):
Sure, Menendez definitely started perspiring a bit in September, but he never spent months lagging by double digits. He also benefitted from a good economy and a huge Democratic wave – and he wasn’t an incumbent with anemic favorables.
Back in 2009, things have picked up somewhat for Corzine in recent months, but his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has also steadily improved. And the other internals on this Q-poll are a lot more worrying. Corzine’s job approval is at its lowest ever (33-60), his attacks on Christie for being close to Bush don’t resonate at all with voters (only 10% call it a “fair criticism”), and the state legislature “generic ballot” is a virtual tie at 45D-43R (in a state where Dems otherwise hold wide margins in the lege).
This, of course, is just one poll – but pick apart any survey and you’ll find plenty of bad news. The fact that Corzine leaked an internal allegedly showing him at 38% is perhaps most disturbing of all. Is this supposed to constitute good news? (The fact that no one’s seen the full memo is also telling.)
We’re also pretty troubled by word that Corzine might tap a reality TV star (yes, you read that right) for the newly-created post of Lieutenant Governor. This is beyond bizarre, and is reminiscent of John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his number two. Let’s pray Corzine doesn’t go this route – but it’s not a heartening sign that he’s considering something so gimmicky when he should be picking someone experienced and fit to succeed him if need be.
The one genuinely positive event on the horizon is the rally Obama is doing with Corzine on Thursday. But that’s just a one-time event, and given how parsimoniously the President spends his political captial, I doubt Obama’s going to attach himself to Corzine at the hip and drag him across the finish line in November.
As I say, this isn’t a move we make lightly, but nonetheless we’re changing the rating on NJ-Gov to “Lean Republican.” This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.
Holy Crap!
Actually it is Bev Perdue. But let me finish with Corzine first.
I wish he had retired when he had that big accident. Codey would have taken over (I hope). Sometimes (and increasingly more often) Corzine makes Paterson look like a statesman.
But one of the worst poll for a democratic governor comes from NC. And Bev Perdue engineered it all by herself. http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Corzine’s spokesperson said there is no way undecided’s are 6 %, NJ is a late breaking state. Not a good defense. Sorry
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co…
I am in so much shock!
Jon Corzine has to be the worst politician I have ever seen in Jersey. Even when he does the right/popular thing he does it after months of saying he will pursue the other course so he gets no credit for it.
What has boosted Corzine in the past has been his money and so far the old spend like there is no tomorrow ways have disappeared. In what could be a bad move, Corzine is actively raising funds from members of his administration (according to NJ.com). Perhaps the leading candidate for his Lt-Gov slot is the winning candidate from a past addition of “The Apprentice.” No political background and yet another businessman (albeit a black businessman).
If Christie defines Christie, Corzine loses. It may be too late but Corzine needs to try and given that the local media is solidly in Christie’s pocket, he needs to push very hard. In yet another weakness, Corzine has never been that available to the papers or advertised either there or on cable TV. Guess who is lined up in Christie’s corner: the local papers and the cable TV. What a schmuck.
Democrats would be better off losing it. It doesn’t do too much harm, the state legislature remains in Democratic hands, and it wouldn’t make the state anything other than strongly Democratic.
In a way this race is just the epitome of why the state isn’t 65% Democratic by now; the infuriating 1960s political view of the state Democratic party, which doesn’t realize things have changed since then. They still control completely the process of who “gets” to run in major races, and they form a highly corrupt system of incompetence and kick backs and stop any sort of responsibility or accountability. Like I said, had the state party been able to change, become a modern party, stop rampant incompetence and corruption, the state would be much more Democratic. That’s one of the big issues time and time again.
The state party was arrogant enough to let a meglomaniac buy it off and force Richard Codey out in 2005 and then prop up a failed highly unpopular incumbent in 2009, refusing to allow any primary challenge. NJ is the sort of party machine that is almost reminiscent of New York City in the 20th century; party bosses have control over everything. Truly the NJ Democratic party deserves this slap in the face from voters, they’ve been pushing them for a decade now.
We’ll see if Christie can work with a D controlled legislature any better than Corzine.
There is absolutely no reason why a reality TV star and generic entrepreneur type should be the first choice to be a heartbeat away from the governorship of a state with over 8 million residents. This is absolutely ridiculous, and seems like a blatant attempt to pander to black voters to get them to turn out in November.
There’s still a lot of time, but he’s dug himself a deep hole. He seems to be doing better in coalescing the base, but he’s gettin killed among independents. He’ll have to narrow that gap significantly to have a chance to win.
But now I’m really starting to think he’s doomed. Between his pick of a reality tv star (and I thought Mccain was desperate), and his continuing sagging numbers. Dare I say it, Jersey might go red this fall. I’m definitely starting to see a situation where we loose Jersey, but keep Virginia. After all the economy hasn’t been hit as hard in Virginia as it has in New Jersey. I just hope the Democrat’s win at least one of them, in the long run I don’t know if it really makes a difference. But You know if we looses them both the Republicans will be taunting us like no tomorrow.
I also believe that Corzine will benefit from undecided voters in the late stages of the race. However, when your opponent is polling 50+%, you are in trouble no matter how the undecideds break.
There is still hope but less of it every day.
Anyone here know our margins in the NJ legislature and whether or not they would be in jeopardy?