SSP Daily Digest: 7/16

FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who’s expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek’s account on the same day — but only $250 to him.)

KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they’re still “lousy.” He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won’t run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway’s primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning’s dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.

NH-Sen: One more indicator that there’s still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn’t going to be working for Ayotte. He’s been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.

NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who’s planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he’s interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).

NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn’t get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor’s race. Here’s a newly interested potential candidate, though, who’s at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She’s the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state’s second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.

NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there’s also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore’s daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won’t run.

PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat… but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it’s happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn’t clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he’s likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach’s former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele’s name has been floated, although she’s already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike’s early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still “eyeing” the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).

VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn’t fit in James’s fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.

Demographics: Two interesting reads you’ll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more “seculars,” and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the “culture wars.” And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that — unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational — Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts’ voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you’re represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you’re reading SSP, chances are that you aren’t), this would be a great piece to forward to them.

15 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/16”

  1. counting out Bunning in a Republican primary (please!). Northup racked up impressive endorsements, some money, etc against Ernie Fletcher but he appealed to the conservative Republican base there and won the primary. Here’s hoping that happens again.  

  2. That Roll Call article said Greg Camp is considering entering the race on the GOP side. I have no idea who he is, of course, but his bio seems rather…interesting. His wife heads the local NOW chapter! If by some stroke of luck he were to win the GE (a 0.001% chance but you never know) you can bet all the social conservative groups, as well as many likeminded congressmen, would be really uneasy with Camp. I doubt all this makes a difference in the Upper East Side GOP, though. So I am sure he could win a primary. But it would just be too funny to see all the uneasiness and awkwardness should he win. Sure, James Carville’s wife (I cant remember her name, forgive me) seems well liked within the GOP despite her husband being a big time and loyal Democrat…but thats a little different than having your spouse head up a “baby killer organization”.  

  3. Itd be something if Vallone, Jr., who the article says is much to the right of the district, somehow is able to win a crowded primary. I guess by getting nearly all of the Queens vote while a few Manhattan heavy hittters split the Manhattan vote. The 2012 primary would be fun to watch! Although he could always swing way to the left.

    Also, the article gives this quote: “Carolyn built the Democratic Party on the East Side of Manhattan, and she took this district from being marginal to being reliably Democratic,” Stavisky said. “Her support, whether explicit or tacit, is really going to be the key to a candidate’s success.”

    I am sure Rep. Maloney has done a tremendous job for the local party…but Stavinsky is insinuating she is the main reason for the party’s local success and the GOP’s massive decline. I have to disagree, even without being an expert at Manhattan politics. It has got to be because of what the national GOP has become. It has become beholden to the Religious Right and Club for Growth types and Neo Con types. And local voters, especially younger ones, are repulsed by that influence. They feel repulsed by what the national GOP is today. Yes, local politics is different than national (just look at local Alabama politics!) but, for the most part, it just seems to be different with the national/local Dems. The local GOP organizations, with a few exceptions (such as in metro Philly…which is not nearly as liberal and Dem as Manhattan East Side) have not been able to convince local voters that they should separate the local from the national party. And to not judge the local based on the national. Whatever theyre saying, its not working. So I think Rep. Maloney has done a great job for her local party and should be commended for it…but the shovel thats dug the local GOP’s grave has been dugged largely by the GOP’s own hands. And Im not sure if they can ever resurrect themselves.

  4. He seems pretty liberal, and Kentucky is quickly becoming one of the most conservative states.

  5. Is also the name of the disgraced Bank of America CEO, who has taken an absolute pounding in traditional and financial media. The banking industry is huge in North Carolina, and Lewis is deeply unpopular. The candidate has no choice but to spend boatloads of money on positive name identification.

  6. This article is insinuating that Rep. Mike Ross is one of the currently 10 Energy & Commerce Committee Dems against the bill. Well, at least he says theres 10. Makes me think hes against it because of this from the article: Ross said the bill, introduced Wednesday by House Democratic leaders, doesn’t include provisions adequate to curb rising health care costs, including what the government spends on healthcare.

    “The current bill would have to be substantially amended before we could consider supporting it,” Ross said.

    If it is true that Ross is against it then Obama needs to give one Bill Clinton a phone call. Ross represents Bill Clinton’s hometown of Hope and I am sure Clinton is very popular in this district. He should give Ross a call and talk to the voters a little bit, too.

  7. Someone started a Draft Elaine Marshall for U.S. Senate group on Facebook and Elaine (the current Secretary of State) joined the group. I wonder if that is a sign of things yet to come…

  8. Apparently this is the new evolution of Republican politics.  Sick of the Mark Sanfords and Chip Pickerings, just elect a guy who lives with his stripper girlfriend.  You stay classy GOP.

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