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SSP Daily Digest: 7/21

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 2:15 PM EDT


AR-Sen: I'm not sure what it is about the Arkansas Senate race that's making it flypaper for never-before-elected wingnuts. At any rate, former Army colonel Conrad Reynolds, from Conway, announced his candidacy on Monday.

FL-Sen: The Fix confirms that Marco Rubio will stay in the Florida GOP Senate primary, despite a terrible fundraising disparity and a brief public flirtation with dropping down to the AG race in the hopes of, y'know, not getting demolished.

IL-Sen: Newly elected Rep. Mike Quigley became the third Democratic House member from Illinois to endorse Alexi Giannoulias today (although the endorsement may not even be necessary if Chris Kennedy doesn't get around to showing up).

MO-Sen: State Senator Chuck Purgason has been sending around e-mails telling the press that tomorrow he'll hold a press conference (at the Ozark Cafe, in West Plains, if you happen to be in the area) where he'll announce his plans for the GOP primary race against Rep. Roy Blunt. Spoiler alert! Purgason's own e-mail goes on to say "It is expected that Purgason will announce that he will enter the race..."

NH-Sen: Here are two items that fall in the "well, duh" file: Kelly Ayotte has set up an exploratory committee so she can consider running for Senate, and Senator Judd Gregg hints strongly that he plans to endorse her.

WV-Sen: Here's some good news, not just because we like to see our friends stay healthy but because he's badly needed for cloture votes: Robert Byrd is back on the job on the Hill, after six weeks of hospitalization and some additional time to recuperate.

KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are back to Plan A in the 2010 Governor's race (not that they ever really had a Plan B): going back to Gov. Mark Parkinson and begging him to reconsider his decision not to run for election to a full term. Parkinson remains adamant, though.

ME-Gov: Another entrant to the Democratic field in the slow-to-take-shape Maine governor's race: Portland businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli, who owns a housing company. Former state House Speaker and AG Steve Rowe still seems to have inside track for the Dems; the GOP, by contrast, doesn't seem to have anyone yet.

MI-Gov: The GOP primary in the Michigan governor's race got even more cluttered today, when, as expected, businessman Rick Snyder got into the race. Snyder is a venture capitalist who briefly served as CEO of PC maker Gateway back in the 1990s.

NJ-Gov: Chris Christie picked Monmouth County Sheriff Kimberly Guadagno as his Lt. Gov. candidate yesterday. It's consistent with his approach of running a law and order, outsider-ish campaign. Christie supposedly also gave a lot of consideration to picking Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who, had he won, would have created a tasty pickup opportunity in NJ-02.

UT-Gov: This week's confirmation hearing of Jon Huntsman as ambassador to China is expected to be a quick affair. He could be in his new job before the summer recess, leaving Gary Herbert in charge of Utah in a matter of weeks.

AL-07: In the wake of recent fundraising reports, Roll Call takes a look at the race to fill the open seat left behind by Rep. Artur Davis, running for Alabama governor. Corporate attorney Terri Sewell, thanks to her job, seems to have the best fundraising connections, and leads the money chase by far ($173K last quarter). However, she probably trails two other candidates in name recognition: state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (son of the former Representative that Davis beat in a primary) and Jefferson Co. Commissioner Shelia Smoot, who is also known for having her own radio show. Also in the race are former Selma mayor James Perkins Jr., attorney Martha Bozeman (Davis's former campaign manager), and businessman Eddison Walters (who racked up 9% against Davis in a 2006 primary).

KS-02: Former Rep. Nancy Boyda landed on her feet, getting sworn in yesterday to her new job at the Pentagon, as deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for manpower and personnel. This would suggest she won't be running again in KS-02, which is fine, as she seems better suited for a policy job than one that requires a lot of campaigning.

NY-23: In other confirmation news, John McHugh's confirmation hearing as Secretary of the Army won't happen until after the August recess (although no one expects holds on the moderate Republican to be a problem). McHugh will remain in office until his confirmation, and after that there will still be several months' lead time until a special election.

TX-23: Republican lawyer and banker Quico Canseco is back for another whack at Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the San Antonio-based 23rd. Actually, Canseco never got that whack in 2008 -- highly touted by the NRCC, Canseco was upset in the GOP primary by Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, despite spending over $1 million of his own money.

Mayors: You may remember businessman Greg Fischer, who lost the 2008 Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky to Bruce Lunsford. He announced that he'll run for Louisville mayor in 2010, as 20-year mayor Jerry Abramson recently announced he won't run again.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/21
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Good to hear about Greg Fischer.
Now, what are Andrew Horne and Bruce Lunsford up to?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Jerry Abramson ...
... is a really good guy, and has been a good and unbelievably popular Mayor of Louisville for like 20 years.  But he's far from done with politics -- Governor Beshear has already announced he's seeking a second term in 2011, and Abramson will be his LG running mate.

[ Parent ]
Seems so odd to me that they'd
announce this even before the Democratic Senate primary.  If he loses, is the Lt. Gov. simply going to hang it up?

[ Parent ]
I thought it was strange, too
Especially since the Gov. is not even halfway into his first term.  I don't follow KY politics as closely as I have in the past, so I'm not sure if the Gov. and Dr. Dan just are not getting along, or if he's bored being LG, or what.

I do think from a progressive standpoint, Jerry Abramson will be a step up from Mongiarno.  But I wonder how a Jewish mayor from the only big city in the state is going to play in the mountain east or southside?


[ Parent ]
Well, I get some of the timing, as
the Senate election is not until Nov. 2010, and the gubernatorial election is the following year.  So I can see not waiting until the general to give everyone time to get ready for the 2011 race.  But this seems a bit ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
Maybe Mongiardo
never really cared to be Lt Gov and just wanted it to help take out Bunning, thinking he'd clear the field and this wouldnt seem so awkward.

[ Parent ]
Maybe,
though if so, that makes me like him even less.

[ Parent ]
Beshear
cannot wait on the Senate primary because in order to raise money he must file with his Lt. Governor candidate. Beshear has endorsed Mongiardo, so I doubt it has anything to do with bad blood and more to do with raising a large warchest to scare off potential Republican candidates.  

[ Parent ]
Really?
Didn't know one had to have an Lt. Gov. candidate to raise money.  Seems kinda weird to me.  Do all candidates for governor have to know who their Lt. Gov. will be?  Or only the incumbent governor?  Most states let the gubernatorial candidate win the primary before making him pick his running mate.  

[ Parent ]
In Kentucky
Gube candidates have to have a running mate right off the bat. It's a bit redonkulous, but here are a few of the combinations running in the 2007 primary:

Beshear-Mongiardo
Lunsford-Stumbo
Miller-Maze
Henry-True
Richards-Brown


[ Parent ]
That is crazy.
I wonder what the justification behind it was.

[ Parent ]
OR-Gov
Jason Atkinson (R), a primary loser last time, will, as expected run again I am hearing.

Guessing this will be frontpaged but PPP poll of LA-Sen
Favorable/Unfavorable
Vitter 44/39
Melancon 26/32

Job Approval/Disapproval
Vitter: 44/36

2010 Senate
Vitter 44%, Generic Democrat 38%
Vitter 44%, Melancon 32%

"Only 38% of voters in the state say that he should be reelected, while 47% say it's time to
give somebody else a chance."

http://www.publicpolicypolling...


More proof
that Louisiana has taken a dive off the right wing, the net negative approval rating on Melancon gives it away.

[ Parent ]
What I don't understand...
is how Melancon is runnning behind "Generic Democrat".  I guess it's a lack of knowledge about Melancon...he's not anything close to a liberal.  If elected, he probably be pretty close to Ben Nelson of Nebraska.

His numbers (26%/32% approval,disapproval rating) shows that he's not well known in the state.

I don't have a good feel for this one.


[ Parent ]
maybe liberal Democrats
Are more popular than you think? Or more popular than Melancon?

[ Parent ]
Maybe many Democrats don't like Melancon
or are undecided, at the very least.  Notice that Vitter's numbers remained static.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
It's Louisiana
I don't believe that the Louisiana electorate would prefer a liberal democrat over a blue dog.  Democratic party of Louisiana...maybe, but not the state as a whole.

What is strange is that at one time (last March) Melancon had a 43-18 approval rating, so something just doesn't add up to me.


[ Parent ]
Two different polling outfits
Can't really compare. Particularly since PPP always seem to find more undecideds wherever they poll.

[ Parent ]
Good point...however
A swing from 43/18 to 26/32, even if it's a different polling outfit, is a drastic swing.  The only thing that is constant is the "no opinion" group...In March, 39% had no opinion, and now 42% had no opinion.  SO PPP really didn't have, at least in this poll, a statistically significant increase in undecided/no opinion.

I majored in Statistics (trust me, it's not a very impressive degree), and the first thing I always try to determine is what could make the numbers swing as wildly as they have.  The polling data in July showed that the Generic Democrat did better than Charlie Melancon against Vitter, and I have no explanation except "the polling data is incorrect".  It makes me wonder if an established Democrat in Louisiana are not being blamed more for economic woes than other unestablished Democrats.


[ Parent ]
Maybe
But you'd think Melancon most of all would have had banked good-will following his nearly single-handed (for a local politician) help in the Katrina recovery.  He took his sugar fortune and really sunk it in there.  But, maybe even he's not immune to this latest crisis.

[ Parent ]
Look at the numbers again
Vitter doesn't move.  Melancon gets worse.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I've given up on Louisiana.


[ Parent ]
News from VA is not good

1. Sheila Johnson, BET co-founder and the first African American billionairess, has endorsed Bob McDonnell (R) for governor. She had given $600K to Kaine in the past.

2. Kaine's top individual donor, Randal Kirk is undecided.

3. VA assembly republicans have considerably outraised the democrats.


Yet Deeds outraised McDonnell in June
And the folks at Kos seemed to think Johnson wasn't a big deal since she was down on Obama too.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
No doubt this is a big financial hit, but I don't think it will have much impact in the vote department. Warner should start calling in some favors on Deeds' behalf.

Still, Deeds has done pretty well financially.


[ Parent ]
Comments are mixed
Anyway he did fine last month so it isn't fatal.

[ Parent ]
"Billionairess"???


[ Parent ]
As to #3
That's not surprising because most of the targeted seats are held by Republicans. You've got Delegates like Dave Albo and Phil Hamilton sucking down special interest money like it was tea.

[ Parent ]
Crist moving to the right
Crist must be worried that Rubio might catch fire later on before the election. He's opposing Sotomayor's confirmation. Which is political suicide in a state like Florida with a substantial Hispanic population. Especially since Sen. Mel Martinez said he will vote for yes on Sotomayor's confirmation.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...  


It's a no-brainer from his perspective
Had he supported Sotomayor Rubio would've used it to bash him over the head. But when he wins the primary this will be long forgotten and it'll be very difficult for Meek to gain traction on it.

[ Parent ]
Florida primaries
Are held in late August, so there isn't much time to recover from a divisive primary. That's why Florida Dems and GOP cleared the field for Sink and McCollum to duke it out to November.  

[ Parent ]
Its why its a smart move
By Crist because it removes an issue for Rubio and by the time the general rolls around this will be long forgotten.

[ Parent ]
NC-Sen
I say we draft comedian Lewis Black to run for the U.S. Senate against Richard Burr - he has a house in Chapel Hill, NC, after all, and if Al Franken can get elected, so can Lewis Black.


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