Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 48 (46)
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
Being down by “only eight” is about as rosy as it has gotten for Corzine over the last month. The glimmer of hope for Corzine here is that many of the undecideds are minority voters; 28% of African-American voters, 18% of Hispanics, and another 18% of “Others” are still noncommittal, while only 4% of whites are still on the fence — a slice of the electorate where Christie is enjoying a monstrous 58-34 lead. (Hat-tip: andgarden)
And now for Virginia…
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 6/15-17 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (44)
Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (45)
Undecided: 6 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)
The fact that this one isn’t as ugly as PPP‘s findings (McDonnell +14) or SUSA‘s (M+15) is cold comfort right now. Again, if the 22% of African-American voters who are on the fence come home to Deeds, the margin becomes quite a bit tighter, but Deeds will need to shave off some McDonnell voters in order to get the job done.
Another point of interest here is that R2K finds Deeds ahead by 65-27 in “Northern Virgina”. Of course, I’m not sure how exactly R2K has defined NoVA, but SUSA had Northeast Virginia going for McConnell by 56-41 in their polling last week. (PPP found the 703 going to Deeds by a very limp 51-44 margin.) In any case, these are the voters that Deeds will have to excite, so it’s time to get cracking.
Did he not get polled?
legislation by November is necessary for Deeds to win. The glow from passing major healthcare reform might get the Democrats to come out for Deeds in November.
Deeds isn’t going to win this race unless the Obama voters show up. He isn’t going to be able to win it in SW Virginia and by winning moderates and conservatives.
50-37 so similar ballpark.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Can somebody convert the topline for me in Virginia if turnout was even, say 36-36. Thanks.
There was a 538 piece right after the primary. It said that Deeds’ strategy in the primary was focused on persuasion rather than turnout. I think he’s doing the same thing in the general – trying to convince those who will turn out, no matter what, to vote for him.
I’ve always found Deeds to be a compelling candidate, so perhaps I am biased, but I think that he might just be able to pull it off. With some smart use of TV time and President Obama’s help in NoVa, I like his chances.
Mel Martinez is resigning. What will Charlie Crist do?
The fix says that it will be former repub gov from 1986-1990… Something Martinez, I wonder if he is a moderate or uber conservative. If Crist is smart he will put the most conservative guy he can find to quash Marco Rubio.