Good news and bad news for Handsome Harry Reid.
The good news:
Nevada Rep. Dean Heller has decided not to run against Harry Reid (D-Nev.), robbing Republicans of their top recruit against the Senate Majority Leader in 2010, according to an informed source.
Heller, who was elected to the vast 2nd district in 2006, called National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) earlier today to pass on his decision.
Heller turned down the race despite internal Republican polling — conducted by the Tarrance Group — that showed him leading Reid by nine points.
The bad news: the GOP has released internal polling showing Reid losing to Nevada GOP Chair Susan Lowden, which may as well be Generic R at this point.
Vitale & Associates (7/29-30, likely voters):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 42
Susan Lowden (R): 48
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Yeah, this poll was commissioned by “Lowden supporters” who are trying to draw her into the race, but before you dismiss these numbers out of hand, bear in mind that PPP’s Democratic polling guru, Tom Jensen, finds these numbers very believable. Tweeting at your face:
I can believe NV poll showing Reid trailing. Fresh polls in Ark. and Co. prob. wouldn’t be pretty for Dems either.
RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen
Or just guessing? I can believe the Reid numbers – nobody seems to like him. But Blanche Lincoln actually behind?
early generally tend to be skewed however, I do not doubt that Reid is in trouble. I think that Reid’s best bet would be to go on a listening tour in Nevada during the recess and try to show his constituents what he has done as majority leader in the senate over the last 3 years. He needs to do what McConnell did last year in Kentucky by going through all the perks that Nevada gets as results of Reid’s seniority and power in the senate.
step up to run for Governor. Having both on the ballot in 2010 could add to the anti-Reid sentiment that is already out there.
If he’s going to lose, let it be in a primary. I mean, that state went overwhelmingly blue last year — the grassroots energy exists to upset Reid in a primary.
For a politician that nobody seems to particularly like, he’s had an amazingly successful career.
If Reid goes down, several other Dems will lose their seats too. So yeah, the would be a new majority leader but he’d have 50-54 seats and still have to deal with guys like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman.
I’d like to see Ross Miller run for governor
If Heller declines in the face of an internal showing him ahead by 9, why would Bowden run if she’s leading by less.
Democrats lost Senate Majority Leader Scott Lucas in 1950 to up-and-comer Everett Dirksen and two years later lost a second floor leader in Ernest McFarland to Barry Goldwater. MCFarland got replaced by a guy named Lyndon Johnson and that was the end of the merry-go-round.
If Reid were a better leader, this would not be possible. His best showing was in the minority and was certainly not equal to McConnell. He needs to be pushing the proto-Blue Dogs around and not vice-versa. Johnson would not have let Max Baucus pull his crap of letting Republicans in on deal-making and keepoing Democrats out. Not never, not no how.
I don’t know if 2 in a row is a record but it is pretty bad.
I dont get Heller. The glory of defeating a Senate Majority Leader should be too tempting. Yeah hed have to give up his House seat to run but its not like hes up there in seniority or has that much political clout (alot because the GOP is being dominated in the House) perhaps besides on local issues and its not like hes safe in his own re-elections. Perhaps it sounds a little contradictory for a vulnerable congressman in a red district to want to take on a powerful Senator. But Reid is no ordinary powerful Senator…hes a very unpopular powerful Senator. If it turns out that some no-name state senator or businessman ends up beating Reid Heller will be kicking himself for the rest of his life.
I generally dont think its a good idea for state party chairs in swing states/districts to run for office. Unless theyre just merely ex-state party chairs who are currently doing something else (in public or private life). Because theyre seen as very partisan. And they have to be hyper partisan…its their job. But the voters still wont like it.