SurveyUSA (8/10-11, likely voters):
John Garamendi (D): 26
David Harmer (R): 18
Mark DeSaulnier (D): 15
Joan Buchanan (D): 12
Anthony Woods (D): 5
Chris Bunch (R): 4
David Peterson (R): 4
Mark Loos (R): 2
Other: 4
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.3%)
This looks to be the first public poll of the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, though the Garamendi campaign recently released an internal (.pdf) that only sampled Democrats and decline-to-state voters. The results of that poll line up fairly well to SUSA’s findings — but only for the Democratic candidates, of course. Garamendi’s poll, from Tulchin Research, pegged the Lt. Governor at 31, with DeSaulnier and Buchanan duking it out for second place at 21 and 17 points, respectively.
Interestingly, when asked, the Garamendi camp told us that they decided not to poll GOP voters in order to save money, and that they felt that no one candidate on the Democratic side would be a particularly strong draw of Republican votes. The DeSaulnier campaign objected, saying that the partial glimpse Garamendi’s poll offered put the legitimacy of the results into question, but SUSA’s crosstabs suggest that Garamendi, in fact, had the most to gain from including Republicans in his sample (other than the GOP candidates, of course); SUSA finds that 14% of Republican voters choose Garamendi, compared to 3% each for Buchanan and DeSaulnier. At this point, a Garamendi-Harmer run-off seems to be the smart bet.
RaceTracker Wiki: CA-10
Which Democrat winds up in second doesn’t matter. In California special elections, if no candidate wins a majority, the top Dem and the top Rep face off. If this poll is prophetic, and I don’t see why it shouldn’t be, that would mean a run-off between Garamendi and Harmer. Garamendi will win that race. I’m good with that.
assuming Garamendi is halfway to booking his flight to DC, what happens in CA when there’s a Lt. Gov. Vacancy? And does it matter much at all to anything?
According to the Garamendi poll memo, they did 400 interviews of Dems and Independents – I’m sure they would have done 400 interviews regardless of party. There’s no cost savings – sounds like Garamendi’s pollster didn’t know that the Special Election rules allow voters to vote for any candidate regardless of party. OOPS!
but I hope that he creates the energy and excitement of his campaign to leverage it into something good
He has paid his dues.
A loyal, rational and dependable democrat.