Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/9-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jerry Brown (D): 29
Gavin Newson (D): 20Meg Whitman (R): 24
Tom Campbell (R): 19
Steve Poizner (R): 9Meg Whitman (R): 27
Tom Campbell (R): 21
(MoE: ±5%)Jerry Brown (D): 42
Meg Whitman (R): 36Jerry Brown (D): 43
Tom Campbell (R): 35Jerry Brown (D): 43
Steve Poizner (R): 34Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Meg Whitman (R): 37Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Tom Campbell (R): 35Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Steve Poizner (R): 35
(MoE: ±4%)
Carly Fiorina (R): 29
Chuck DeVore (R): 17
(MoE: ±5%)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52
Carly Fiorina (R): 31Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 53
Chuck DeVore (R): 29
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 takes a very thorough look at the big two races in California next year, checking out pretty much every possible permutation left. Although we’ve seen some rather alarming polls for Democrats in the last few weeks, Democrats seem to be holding their own in California, with ex-Gov. and current AG Jerry Brown holding an appreciable edge in the Governor’s race (up 6 on the likeliest GOP opponent, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) and Sen. Barbara Boxer with 20-point leads on her competition.
San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom doesn’t fare as well in head-to-heads — Whitman edges him out by 1, while he beats the other GOPers by 1 — and that’s reflected in his favorables. He’s the only one of the five gubernatorial candidates who’s in negative favorability territory, at 40/42 (Brown, by comparison, is at 48/37). While the primaries have been polled extensively, the only previous poll that has looked at the general election in CA-Gov is a Lake Research poll from March that had both Brown and Newsom beating their GOP rivals by margins well outside the MoE, so it seems like some erosion has happened on the governor’s side (especially with Newson). With Whitman’s endless millions that she’s signaled her willingness to spend, this has the potential to get closer as the race goes on.
On the flipside, R2K’s numbers give a much wider spread on the Boxer/Fiorina matchup than the recent Rasmussen poll; R2K’s numbers on this race are pretty close to what the Field Poll found in March.
Finally, the poll also asks about the fate of a same-sex marriage initiative that may be on the ballot in 2010. The initiative would narrowly lose, 48-47, but that’s indicative of some progress, as the same sample voted 51-45 in favor of Proposition 8 (and thus against same-sex marriage) last year, so there’s been some improvement just in the last half a year.
As many have so often noted, the Field Poll is one of the most accurate polls for CA. If this poll mirrors those results, then I’m inclined to believe it.
as a reason for going to the ballot in 2012 instead of 2010. This poll shows a five point improvement. I wonder if that will set their case back meaningfully.
I prefer 2010, btw, though I am somewhat persuadable. A stand-alone 2011 campaign would be ideal, but I’ve never heard anyone suggest that it would be possible. AFAIK only the legislature can force a special election outside of regularly scheduled elections, and if the Gaze were to force one, the no side could attack us for the needless cost.
In that case we’d need an election for 2011 to be already in the works, so that the Gaze could piggyback onto it. Awfully hard to orchestrate that two years in advance successfully.
I’ve read worrywarts on other sites expressing fears that Boxer is going to lose. She’s not.
We have plenty of things to really worry about, and we shouldn’t be wasting our angst on this race. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t support and campaign for her. I think she’s one of the most valuable Senators we’ve got, week in and week out fighting for good causes.
The race will probably get closer as the Republicans sort themselves out, but Boxer always comes on strong in the last weeks of a campaign. There’s every reason to expect that she’ll do so again.
I think in general that things will look better for Democrats in the fall, especially if a decent health bill passes. Republicans are boiling angry right now. Anger at first feels real good, but after a while it is replaced by guilt and shame. The non-pathological Republicans and independents should be feeling those latter sensations by fall. It happened in the Schiavo case. I think it will happen again.
also surprised, even though Meg Whitman has got the entire Republican party behind her, she’s in a dead heat with Tom Campbell.
What became of the Irish Catholic neighborhood that formed the base of Dan White, murderer of George Moscone and Harvey Milk? I presume the old residents moved to the suburbs, but what’s the area like today?
I’ve been a big Newsom supporter but hes been polling badly for a while. Brown is ok I guess, but something like CA-GOV should be a stepping stone to something bigger.
I can guarantee that if the race heats up, it will be pitched by the media as old vs. new, handsome young buck vs. salty old pro. But as a dude who should be Newsom’s demographic (young, tech-savvy, left-ish but moderate-y, sometimes, gay-for-gay-marriage Democrat), I have to say, I’m totally ‘meh’ on Newsom.
I wasn’t born when Brown was first elected, nor a Californian when he ended his terms, but there was one comment he made that just made me think he’s maybe what California needs right now…I’m paraphrasing, but asked what kind of Governor the state needs said something like:
“We need somebody to hold this state together with duct tape and bailing wire.”
Post-Ahnold, I think I might be in the mood for a tough, salty old liberal. If Newsom got elected, he’d think of his political future, while Brown would be thinking about his legacy in California.
for the simple reason of redistricting. Take a look at silver spring’s diary to see the future of the GOP delegation if we win CA-Gov.