With the news that Charlie Crist has asked GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to submit his application for the state’s Senate vacancy created by outgoing Sen. Mel Martinez, there has been a lot of debate over just how seriously we should be taking this news. Roll Call finds a pretty major (and clever) wrinkle in the situation — namely, that Charlie Crist may be hoping to create a House vacancy that would be too tempting to pass down for his primary opponent, Marco Rubio:
Some GOP insiders speculated that appointing Lincoln Diaz-Balart would create a House vacancy and special election that might be a tempting proposition for former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is challenging Crist in the Senate primary. Rubio has repeatedly said he is in the Senate race to stay, but his former House district overlaps with Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s 21st district.
Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos said late Friday that his boss’s efforts remain focused on only one race. “Marco Rubio is a candidate for the U.S. Senate. It’s not only Washington or bust for him, it’s also U.S. Senate or bust,” Burgos said in an e-mailed statement.
I have to hand it to Crist — if his intention is to lure Rubio into another race entirely, then he certainly knows how to play chess, not checkers. And if I were Rubio, I don’t think I could pass up an opportunity to have what would probably be a clear shot at a seat in Congress over an extremely tough Senate primary.
Could Raul Martinez beat Marco Rubio in a FL-21 open seat race? Martinez lost to LDB 58-42, but this time will be different because there is no incumbent and Rubio is more conservative than LDB.
and runs in the primary against Crist and Rubio. Oops!
I thought Crist wanted a placeholder who would agree not to run in 2010. Lincoln is only 55 so you wouldn’t expect him to retire in only 2 years. And he doesn’t have anywhere else to go if Rubio takes his House seat. I think it would be smart for Crist to appoint 78 year old Congressman Bill Young.
I’m still a bit puzzled as to why Lincoln Diaz-Balart would even consider it. One thing I wonder right away is how often has this occurred in the past. It just seems to be a very unique situation.
So far I’ve seen lobbying mentioned, and the possibility that Diaz-Balart’s seat could eventually become a Democratic takeover as early as 2010 or 2012.
Still though, it seems odd for him to bail out like that.
I might be way off with this, but wasn’t there some speculation in 2008 that LDB was very unhappy being in Congress now? Not unhappy enough to retire but just pure frustrated due to being in the minority party? I did a quick Google search and found nothing so maybe I am thinking of someone else.
I see zero chance of LDB being really considered or thinking about accepting. Crist is likely just trying to give token lip service to the Cuban community. Crist knows that seat would most likely be lost and LDB would probably not be conservative enough for the Rubio crowd.
Yes, his district may or may not be trending Dem fast:(hispanics are soon realizing how crazy the current crop of GOP voters are OR Obama may have had special appeal to GOP voting Cubans as a minority than previous white Dems). But I suspect one other reason may be the expectation that Bill Nelson may not run for re-election in 2012, so maybe this will be a way to get his name out and from a short but conservative voting record, it may earn him enough chits to win the GOP primary.