SurveyUSA (8/15-17, likely voters, no trend lines):
Jack Conway (D): 31
Dan Mongiardo (D): 39
Lillie E. Miller Johnson: 4
Darlene Fitzgerald Price: 3
Maurice Marion Sweeney: 1
Other: 9
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.9%)
This is the first poll we’ve seen of the Senate primary since the ridiculous Fancy Farm “controversy” that gave Conway a surprisingly stretched-out period of bad press. At the very least for Conway, at least this isn’t as deep a hole to climb out of than the one he appeared to be in based on a Mongiardo internal poll from May. In that poll, Mongiardo held a 43-28 lead over Conway.
The Republican primary:
Trey Grayson (R): 37
Rand Paul (R): 26
Roger Thoney (R): 5
Bill Johnson (R): 2
Brian Oerther (R): 0
Other: 13
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.4%)
That’s one hell of a strong showing for Rand Paul — no doubt Paulbots all across the nation are short-circuiting in utter glee at how close he is at the beginning of this campaign.
And, finally, the general election numbers (registered voters):
Dan Mongiardo (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 46
Undecided: 16Jack Conway (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 44
Undecided: 18Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 38
Undecided: 19Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 41
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±2.3%)
Grayson’s lead is not surprising. Mongiardo and Conway are beating each other up with brass knuckles at this point (with the most egregious attacks coming from that jerkface Mongiardo), while the GOP primary is far less contentious. With Rand Paul performing this well, though, perhaps things may get a bit testier in the future.
Crosstabs and more details for this poll are not yet available on SUSA’s site, but we’ll update this post with more details when they become available. (UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.)
RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen
I stated that I think the GOP’s open senate seats in 2010 are really weak, but I should specifically say that that is in comparison to their Dem opponents and/or their state’s economic profile (e.g. Portman in OH). The fact that Trey leads the Dems is nothing at this point because he’s never really had a tough race while Conway, especially, is an aggressive fighter and you don’t win elections in KY running soft campaigns (see McConnel v. every Dem, Bunning v. Beasler, Fletcher v. Chandler). If Conway wins the Dem nomination, he is going to tear anything in his way…that guy is one determined pol and polls don’t deter him at all.
Rand isn’t as nutty as his father so it’s possible he could poll that well.
I think I heard that Kentucky does a runoff in the primary if one candidate does not get 50%. In my opinion, this primary fight is similar to the one between Lt. gov Le Fisher and SOS Jennifer Brunner. I wish Mongiardo and Fisher would both drop out because Brunner and Conway would make much better candidates and senators.
for Obama in 2010 like 1962 which gives all Democrats a major bounce, Trey Greyson will be the next senator from Kentucky.
Even the best case scenario, Dems pass major health care reform and even cap and trade, and the economy rebounds nicely in 2010 would mean a pro-incumbent year. And that would mean that the general trends in Kentucky would hold, that is a Republican would win statewide narrowly.
Mongiardo is about as unacceptable to me as Grayson.
I would really prefer Conway here but he seems to be floundering pretty badly. I don’t think Mongiardo has a real shot against Grayson, so I am hoping for a turnaround here.
Not that Conway’s a liberal, but isn’t he more so than Mongiardo?
Apparently, he is open to the idea of his campaign getting a blimp, similar to how supporters of his father’s presidential campaign rented one last year: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/wa…
Amazing, amazing.
Not knowing much about KY politics, I’d have to go with Mongiardo. Conway comes off as too angry and seems like he’d be much more partisan, kind of like Sestak.