AR-Sen: Lincoln Leads, But Under 50%

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44

Gilbert Baker (R): 37

Undecided: 19

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45

Curtis Coleman (R): 37

Undecided: 18

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46

Tom Cox (R): 29

Undecided: 25

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 47

Kim Hendren (R): 28

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Blanche Lincoln fares a little better in R2K’s first look at the Arkansas Senate race than she did in the recent PPP poll, which had her trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 2 points. Here, she has a 7-point lead on Baker, and also beats her goofier GOP opponents by margins ranging from 8 to 19 (in the case of state Sen. Kim “That Jew” Hendren).

Still, Lincoln shouldn’t be resting on her laurels. She’s polling well below the 50% mark, and her approvals are a net negative: 43/49 (with only 17% “very favorable”). Her opponents remain largely unknown, with “no opinion” ranging from 73% for Baker and 75% for Curtis “Shots and Visa” Coleman, to 85% for Cox and Hendren. One finding that might give her a little breathing room, though, is that Arkansans support creation of the public option, 55-38 (when the interviewer fully explains it and doesn’t just say “public option”)… assuming, of course, that she’s actually interested in what her constituents think about the matter.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

47 thoughts on “AR-Sen: Lincoln Leads, But Under 50%”

  1. These are more realistic numbers than those other ones that came out a few weeks ago. With Lincoln possibly taking over the Agriculture Committee from Tom Harkin (who moves onto HELP), it should increase her profile a bit. Now, if she could just get onboard the public option, I think she can be assured of reelection.

  2. I believe Lincolns chances will improve once/if the economy begins to improve, and national sentiment goes back in favor of Dems instead of hate for everyone.

    Also Gilbert and company are probably near their max support. Republicans/Conservatives are in a mood were they will vote for anyone besides a Democrat. And I’m assuming that once Liberal and Moderate voters learn who Lincolns opponents are they will not be inclined to vote for them.

    However though given the chance that Lincoln will lose she isn’t a democrat I’m too saddened to see lose.

  3. It will help her reach out the rural voters who are more inclined to vote GOP by making a strong case that keeping her will allow Arkansas to directly benefit from having a Democratic majority.  If she plays this right it ought to seal the deal for her.

    She’ll vote against the public option though – which isn’t surprising.  These poll numbers are tained.  Any poll that involves a pollster “explaining” a certain policy has to be taken with a grain of salt.  Do we have the text they used to explain to voters what it is?

    That said, I wish the Democratic leadership would have leveraged this Ag Chairmanship into forcing her to vote for the public option.  It’s the biggest legislative item for the Democrats, so it’s not unreasonable for them to force her to vote for at least cloture if she wanted it.  But that’s the core problem with Democratic leadership in the Senate, in that they can never ideologically “maximize” their friendly territory or majority.  There’s plenty of states (CT, AR, PA come to mind) that could field way more progressive Senators that would be politically safe, and to top it off they continue to give chairmanships (Agriculture, Homeland Security, Finance) to recalcitrant members that refuse to play ball with their agenda.  You’d never see the Republicans do that when they had the majority.

  4. but it will be a close, hard-fought win. She only managed 56% against extreme-right wingnut State Rep. Jim Holt in 2004. I would expect a Lincoln victory to be around 52-48 this time around.

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