Quinnipiac (9/8-10, likely voters, 6/26-7/1 in parentheses):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (43)
John Kasich (R): 36 (38)
(MoE: ±3%)
There’s some definite improvement in the Ohio Governor’s race, where a number of summertime polls showed incumbent Dem Ted Strickland leading John Kasich within the margin error. Strickland’s putting a little more distance between himself and the ex-Rep., now holding a 10-point edge.
Strickland’s hardly out of the woods, polling below 50%. And although his overall job approval is positive at 48/42, he’s in deep negative territory on his handling of the state budget and the economy (not that anyone could do much with that, given the demolished manufacturing sector at his state’s core). Ohioans are a little happier with their Senators: George Voinovich is at 52/33 and Sherrod Brown is at 48/33.
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Gov
Good to hear. Strickland winning by a good margin could be the difference between Senator Fischer and Senator Portman.
The reason Strickland is in trouble now is because of the budget fight earlier in the year. However, as that fades further and further from view, I think Ted’s numbers will improve. It also helps that Kasich is not the type of Republican who wins in OH. Aside from Blackwell, nearly all of the successful statewide Republicans have come from the James Rhodes wing of the party (moderate on economic issues, not antagonistic toward unions, socially conservative but disinterested). Kasich will NOT play well in NE Ohio, and even though he’s from Columbus, the area has changed quite dramatically from when he was last in office.
as any Governor of Ohio could conceivably be doing at this moment in history.
Brown’s approvals are, considering that he’s extremely progressive for an essentially 50/50 state.
I agree with Corran Horn’s take on Ohio. I lived in deep red Butler County for a while so I have a pretty good take on the GOP. Portman is more in line with the James Rhodes wing than Kasich. He looks good and talks moderate but he’s more conservative than Voinovich. He’ll be harder to beat but I think Fisher or Brunner can beat him. The Cincy area continues to lose Republicans to the sunbelt states, and I think the Delaware and Licking counties near Columbus aren’t as deep red as they were in 2002/2004.
Strickland cretainly won’t repeat his 60% performance from 2006, but I don’t see how he loses. Kasich won’t play well outside the exurbs and will get annihilated in pretty much the entire eastern half of the state (including the conservative SE, which is Strickland’s base and not really fertile ground for a TV manufactured candidate like Kasich).
No one is paying attention to the Senate race right now, I’d have to call it a tossup and despite the numbers above I’d think Brunner may have a slightly better shot than Fisher who is mostly running on name rec right now. To be honest, I really don’t know why we’re having this primary, there is barely any daylight between the two candidates. I may just flip a coin in the booth.