AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers

Public Policy Polling (9/18-21, registered voters):

Terry Goddard (D): 46

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 36

Undecided: 17

Terry Goddard (D): 45

Dean Martin (R): 37

Undecided: 18

Terry Goddard (D): 52

Fife Symington (R): 29

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We haven’t seen any public polling of Arizona’s gubernatorial race this year, so this poll is greatly appreciated. State AG Terry Goddard, the presumptive Democratic nominee here (even though he hasn’t formally announced anything yet due to Arizona’s strict resign-to-run laws), is in pretty good shape. PPP finds his favorables at 44-22, which is almost the mirror image of Brewer’s:

Only 26% of Arizona voters approve of the job Brewer is doing with 43% expressing disapproval and 31% unsure. Her numbers are remarkably consistent along party lines with 28% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats, and 24% of independents giving her good marks. Of all the Governors and Senators PPP has polled on across the country so far in 2009 Brewer is the least popular within her own party, taking that mantle from Illinois Senator Roland Burris who is at just 29% with Democrats.

If we continue to see numbers this bad for Brewer, I wouldn’t be surprised if GOP leaders begin to pressure her to not seek a full term in 2010. While an unknown like state Treasurer Dean Martin polls about as well as she does, he doesn’t have Brewer’s high unfavorables to deal with. At this point, a guy like Martin — or someone else of similar stature — could be their better option, if you believe this poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’ll be re-evaluating that rating soon in light of these numbers.

RaceTracker: AZ-Gov

43 thoughts on “AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers”

  1. might ultimately be a good thing in terms of winning this seat in 2010.  It’s a shitty time to be the incumbent party in most state governments.

  2. Anyone know why Brewer is so deeply unpopular among Republican voters?


    Of all the Governors and Senators PPP has polled on across the country so far in 2009 Brewer is the least popular within her own party, taking that mantle from Illinois Senator Roland Burris who is at just 29% with Democrats.

    PPP hasn’t polled Paterson or Gibbons, correct? They may be even less popular among their respective parties than Brewer or Burris.

  3. This was great for the dems.  We eliminated a potential republican star in this state.  We can probably get a governor mansion in a state Obama will be targeting.  Also, does anyone know if this will protect out house seats n redistricting.

  4. Is what we really need to win so we can make sure obama has a good shot at winning this state in 2012?  Also a dem governor will deepen our bench for the aging senators in AZ… that’s pretty much it right?

  5. It’d be great if he ran, he’d have to give up his seat which would give us a shot of really deepening out bench here.  Can you imagine if Freudanthal challenges term limits and we pick up CA, NV, HI, and AZ… the west,  northeast, and midwest would be a nice pretty shade of blue!  Of course that’s assuming we win MI, WI, and MN… MI being a tough get.  Also PA looks a little sketchy at the moment but I’d imagine these states come back to equlibriem in 2010.  So we’d be losing Oklahoma, KS, TN, and probably NJ… Overall I think that’s a prety good trade off to get the west and Midwest solidly in our corner.  Those are the swings parts of the country whereas Oklahoma and the like are not.

  6. Grassley is beating Bob Krause 56 to 30.  But they have Obama’s Arpoval at 48 appr to 49 dis… even though he won the state by nine points.  Their overall approval is 50 approve 49 disaprove.  They also showed him losing quite a bit of ground in Missouri from the election.  So my question is, if they have Obama’s overall aproval pretty static from where it was on election day, then that means that to make up for the lost support in Iowa, Missouri etc. he must be doing better in some parts than he was on election day.  I find this hard to believe.  So basically I think this proves that Rasmussen at least has a flawed polling system.

  7. If he runs for Governor, he will be extremely formidable.  If not, this is Goddard’s race to lose.  (Joe Arpaio could also make a formidable candidate, but I would be extremely shocked if that actually materialized.  Arpaio running for statewide office would probably start the wheels moving on a long-overdue federal investigation of his handling of the Maricopa County prisons, which might well land him in jail himself.)

  8. Guess Arizonans haven’t forgotten his foibles.

    It will be interesting to see how the GOP primary shakes out. I imagine it will be pretty brutal, and the late date (September) doesn’t help either.

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