VA-Gov: PPP Says Race Tightening, SUSA Does Not Concur

Two new Virginia polls out today. Let’s cut ’em open while they’re still fresh on the table.

Public Policy Polling (9/25-28, likely voters, 8/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (42)

Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

More, from Jensen:

Deeds appears to have more room to grow. 53% of the remaining undecideds are Democrats while only 7% are Republicans. Although the fact that Deeds has not locked up those votes yet does show some degree of lukewarmness toward his campaign, those voters are still more than likely going to end up ‘coming home.’ […]

Bob McDonnell’s thesis is having a mixed impact on the race. Only 2% of people who say they supported him a month ago now say they’re going to vote for Deeds, so the extent to which the thesis is changing people’s minds is limited. But it may be playing a role in increasing Democratic turnout. In our last poll those planning to vote this year had voted for John McCain by a 49-45 margin. Now the likely electorate voted for Barack Obama by a 48-45 margin, indicating intended Democratic turnout is now pushing closer to what it was last year. The thesis may not have turned McDonnell votes into Deeds votes, but it looks like it is helping to turn non-voters into Deeds votes.

Jensen goes on to say that if the electorate looks like the one that turned out last November, “Deeds will probably pull this one out by the skin of his teeth”. The idea that Deeds would need an Obama-style turnout operation to win is at least moderately disturbing, but it’s nothing new. However, PPP’s release was the more optimistic of the two polls released today.

SurveyUSA (9/26-28, likely voters, 9/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 41 (42)

Bob McDonnell (R): 55 (54)

Undecided: 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s an ugly spread for Creigh, but SUSA is looking at a pretty starkly different voter universe than PPP is. PPP’s sample voted for Obama over McCain by a 48-45 margin (up from 49-45 McCain in late August), while SUSA’s last two polls have had 51-44 McCain samples. All other pollsters have shown a tightening race in the past few weeks, so SUSA is either in error or they’ve caught on to something that everyone else has missed:

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

31 thoughts on “VA-Gov: PPP Says Race Tightening, SUSA Does Not Concur”

  1. and among young people. Who knows–maybe they’re right. They do have a pretty good Virginia track record.  

  2. this race will come down to the wire and will be decided by less than 2%.  I’d still say the favorite is McDonnell, but I don’t think he’ll win by much, if at all.

  3. 50% Deeds

    50% McDonnell

    With Deeds winning by less than 300 votes. This race will not be decided on election night or for weeks after the election, expect a recount and a dogfight.

  4. …Deeds is closing, but not nearly fast enough. And, if thesis-gate has only allowed him to make up 2% over one month, he’s got some real problems at hand. I don’t buy the SurveyUSA #’s at all, but nevertheless, McDonnell is ahead, and Deeds needs something more substantive than the thesis crap to lessen McDonnell’s massive lead among Independents.

    Right now, VA/NJ are looking to me like…

    McDonnell – 52%

    Deeds – 48%

    Christie – 45%

    Corzine – 42%

    Daggett – 13%

  5. This one showing the clips of McDonnell defending his thesis and reaffirming that he doesn’t believe in contraceptives.

    That will definitely help. I expect Deeds will do like last time, he did much better than polled in 2005, losing by only 323 votes. I suspect the same stories; he’s just not very well known in many Democratic areas, and voters are unwary, they will come home when they finally cast their ballots. If he’s still 3-4 points down on election day, look for him to win narrowly off the undecideds, that all of course depends on him really capitalizing off of this issues and frankly McDonnell’s all around nuttiness, does no one else remember his public statement “We need to return to Bush Economics”? Why has that not been put in an ad and blast statewide? If I wanted to fucking scare liberals and Democrats into voting for a dead dog if that’s what I had on the ballot that’s what I’d do but I haven’t heard of any such ad. Anyway, Deeds will need to do that and get a good Democratic turnout.

    As sherlock would say, “Elementary my dear Watson.

  6. By how much, I don’t know. Probably around 2-5%.

    I happened to watch that bit he did on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace. Instead of wafering on his views from his thesis to votes he casted as a legislator, McDonnell flat out defended his conservative viewpoints. That to me shows confidence that is sorely lacking in many who run for public office today.

    It baffles me why Daily Kos would bother putting that up there on their website. It seems to me it strengthend McDonnell’s hand, not weaken it.

Comments are closed.