Quinnipiac (9/22-28, registered voters, 7/14-19 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (45)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (44)
Don’t know: 13 (10)Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)
Pat Toomey (R): 38 (39)
Don’t know: 25 (23)
(MoE: ±3%)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (55)
Joe Sestak (D): 25 (23)
Don’t know: 28 (19)
(MoE: ±?%)
Quinnipiac (9/21-28, registered voters, 7/14-19 in parentheses):
Dan Onorato (D): 28
Tom Corbett (R): 47
Don’t know: 24Jack Wagner (D): 29
Tom Corbett (R): 44
Don’t know: 25
(MoE: ±3%)Dan Onorato (D): 14 (16)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 12 (NA)
Jack Wagner (D): 11 (16)
Chris Doherty (D): 8 (NA)
Tom Knox (D): 5 (13)
Don’t know: 46 (54)Tom Corbett (R): 42 (38)
Jim Gerlach (R): 13 (15)
Don’t know: 43 (37)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Lots of data to look at from Quinnipiac, who look at the primary fields in both the Senate and Governor’s races in Pennsylvania as well as head-to-head general election matchups in both races. The Senate race has both Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak neck-and-neck with ex-Rep. Pat Toomey; there has actually been very little movement since the previous Quinnipiac poll in the head-to-heads, although the Democratic primary looks a lot closer (but at this point Specter seems to be bleeding votes to “don’t know” rather than directly to Sestak).
Things look worse in the Governor’s race, where AG Tom Corbett leads both Auditor Jack Wagner and Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato by double digits. In July, everyone was so little-known that Quinnipiac simply asked a Generic D/Generic R question (where “R” won, 38-37), so clearly Wagner and Onorato are underperforming their imaginary Dem colleague. This may, however, be a factor of name recognition, as Corbett is much better-known than any of his competition (he has 43/7 favorables with 49% don’t know, while Gerlach and all the Dems top 70% don’t know). It seems like Wagner (who is elected statewide, and actually had the biggest victory of anyone running statewide in 2008) should be well-known — but setting aside us political junkies, who really knows who their Auditor is (while Corbett has spent years in the spotlight via the Bonusgate investigation)?
There’s one other consideration here, one that cropped up with Quinnipiac’s last poll too: they sampled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans (they may have oversampled to compensate, but they simply don’t provide any more details in the crosstabs as to whether that’s what they did), which is way off from the state’s actual composition. Bear in mind, though, that Nate Silver re-ran the July numbers to correct for that problem and found that it only made a few points’ worth of difference… so at this point, this looks more a case of low-info voters not yet knowing enough about Toomey other than that he’s not Arlen Specter, and not knowing much of anything about anybody other than Corbett in the governor’s race. (UPDATE: In response to questions about the July poll, Quinnipiac said they weighted, but based on ‘party identification’ rather than registration. Assumedly they’re using the same method this time too.)
More and more, I’m thinking there’s too heavy an anti-Spector vote (or, rather, “I don’t exactly hate Specter, but I’m pretty sick of him”) for him to beat Toomey. Yes, with the right campaign, Toomey can be portrayed as the right-winger that he is, but frankly, he’s doing a fairly decent job at fooling Independents into thinking he’s a moderate.
Sestak, on the other hand, is a fresh face who could easily keep Toomey away from conservative Dems and moderate Indies.
that we would have been in a better position without Specter.
Just my belief.
But that will change in the course of the campaign. I can’t see them (PA voters) electing someone that far to the right. Specter will probably have more of a fight in the general election than the primary. With most of the establishment lined up behind Specter, Sestak will have to run a pretty great campaign to pull the upset.
that Q-poll didn’t properly weight the GE sample to the entire electorate’s party ID. But I suppose if you really think that you could just ask them.
I don’t see how either of the Allegheny County Democrats would beat Corbett. Does anyone think either one could?
Is it the typical redistricting set-up, state legislature passes a map and then Gov signs it?
We better be able to keep the state house then if we lose the gubernatorial, way too many Dems that we need to shore up.
Republicans know Toomey and Corbett and are supporting them in droves. Both are Santorumites, and Rick Santorum would not be elected statewide in 2010. I’m not saying that Corbett or Toomey won’t (or can’t) win, but if the Democrats can expose how right-wing they both are, Corbett’s huge lead will evaporate (not that Toomey has much of one to start with).
Corbett was appointed AG by Tom Ridge and served for two years in the 90s before he was ever elected, which gave him an edge and allowed him to win by 2 points in 2004. Also, Pennsylvania hasn’t elected a Democratic Attorney General since it became an elected position in 1980. Not sure if there’s anything to that or not.
Corbett and Toomey just don’t seem like the kind of Republicans that Pennsylvania likes as governors and senators. Santorum was a fluke, winning in ’94 and 2000 (his reelection I can’t explain as well, although I heard Klink wasn’t the best candidate) before getting trounced by 18 points in 2006. Look at every recent PA Republican governor and senator besides Santorum. Arlen Specter. John Heinz. Tom Ridge. Dick Thornburgh. Dick Schwieker. Bill Scranton. Hugh Scott. My RINO grandparents have mentioned all of them as “their kind of Republicans” (though they’re starting to sour on Specter, but I digress). It isn’t surprising that Pennsylvania Republicans are nominating more conservatives, as their party has lost many moderates, but even in 2010 I do not think that this is a recipe for success.
Corbett and Toomey would win only if they were successful at masking their conservatism, something which Corbett has a better chance at doing without a congressional record…but something which I still think will come out before too long. True, he did get Tom Ridge’s endorsement, but I expect Gerlach to make the case that he is in the mold of previous Republican governors.
If Democrats lose the PA governorship(which looks likely), then they must hold control of the state House or Republicans will have total control over redistricting again.
Sestak up 43-39 on Specter for those who know both candidates. Only 163 of those sampled qualified for this, so the margin of error doesn’t bear thinking about, but if it’s not just a statistical aberration then Arlen’s loss to undecided could be making it’s way on to Joe as soon as he gets himself known a little more.
http://www.openleft.com/diary/…
I look at the Democratic party as part of my family. Arlen Specter has recently joined the family, and since then he’s been on our side on the key issues like health care. I also had respect for Arlen before he joined our party. He didn’t mind rocking the boat within the GOP caucus, which politically made me very happy.
I’m supporting Arlen Specter in 2010. If he loses to Sestak, I will definitely support Sestak because he is a good man and because Toomey is way too conservative. At first, I was going to support Sestak because Arlen’s motives for changing parties was solely because he knew he would lose the GOP nomination. I’m totally over that now. Arlen is one of us now, and while that may make a lot of people upset based on his record prior to April 2009, I now pledge loyalty to him like he has to us over the last 6 months. I also do not believe he will switch his ideology after 2010. He has seen what the GOP party is about (the party of “No”) and he is committed to making the US a better place.