NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo’

Fairleigh Dickinson (9/28-10/5, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38

Chris Christie (R): 37

Chris Daggett (I): 17

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

FDU didn’t include Chris Daggett in their previous month’s poll, so we can’t draw a clean trend line from these numbers. However, in a direct head-to-head, Corzine leads Christie by 44-43, up from 47-42 for Christie last month. Incredibly, this is the first time we’ve seen Corzine in the lead since January. There’s more, though.

Rasmussen Reports (10/5, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44 (41)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (48)

Chris Daggett (I): 6 (6)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

If there’s been a common thread over the past few weeks, it’s been that Christie’s numbers are beginning to come back down to earth, but that Corzine wasn’t actually gaining any support in most of the public polling. Now we have two polls suggesting that Corzine is ticking upward, and here’s how that looks in graphical form:

Getting better, but we’ll have more polling results in the coming days that will either corroborate the trend or point to something else. Hang on to your butts.

41 thoughts on “NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo’”

  2. http://www.pollster.com/polls/…

    and click on Tools, and switch the Trend Smoothing to the More Sensitive setting. Then, we see Corzine’s line rising at roughly a 45° rate for the past 3 weeks or so.

    Also, if you turn on Daggett as a choice to be graphed, we see his line has peaked and is falling off.

  3. And no, I’m not being partisan. With Daggett’s strength, I could easily imagine these numbers, but not when some dude named Gary Steele, that no body knows, has 12%.  

  4. Christie’s double digit lead has evaporated and now even rasmussen has called the race a tossup. We all know that dems in NJ outperform their poll numbers on election day. So can SSP please move this race to tossup.

  5. Final Results

    Corzine 53.5%

    Forrester 43.0%

    RCP Average (10/31-11/6)

    Corzine  48.8%

    Forrester 42.4%  

    WNBC/Marist (11/6)      

    Corzine 51%

    Forrestor 46%  

    Rasmussen (11/6)      

    Corzine 44%

    Forrester 39%

    Survey USA (11/4-6)      

    Corzine 50%

    Forrester 44%

    Quinnipiac (10/31-11/6)  

    Corzine 52%

    Forrester 45%  

    Monmouth/Gannett (11/2-4)

    Corzine 47%

    Forrester 38%  

  6. while they had Corzine ahead he overperformered what

    the polls had and Forrester underperformed.Odds are

    Corzine will narrowly win.The MSM Is already spinning

    this as politics returning toPreObama table.Even If the

    New York Congressional Special election also Is won by a

    democratic they will Ignore both to spin a Deeds loss In

    Virginia even if It Is a narrow loss as a Obama backlash.

    What they are forgetting Is New Jersey went from a double

    deget lead by Christie to a dead head.

  8. and he said that although he is strongly supporting corzine in the debate daggett was by far the best.

    i do think that as long as this is tight, the superior democratic GOTV operation should pull corzine across.

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