IA-Sen/IA-Gov: Grassley & Culver Are Both Vulnerable

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 51

Christie Vilsack (D): 40

Undecided: 11

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 51

Roxanne Conlin (D): 39

Undecided: 10

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52

Bob Krause (D): 35

Undecided: 13

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 54

Tom Fiegen (D): 31

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll to test Chuck Grassley against a couple of higher-profile names: Christie Vilsack, the wife of former governor (and current Ag. Sec’y) Tom Vilsack, and Roxanne Conlin, former head of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America and 1982 Democratic nominee for governor (she lost 53-47 to none other than Terry Bradstad – we’ll visit with him below). Both Vilsack and Conlin’s names have been tossed around as possible candidates recently, with Conlin refusing to rule out a run and Vilsack openly suggesting she might join the race.

The best news about this poll, though, is that Grassley seems to have a cap of about 51-52% against a field which has room to grow. He does better against state Sen. Tom Fiegen, but only because half the state has no opinion of the latter. All the other three Dem names are in a much closer range in terms of favorables – former state Rep. and longtime public official Bob Krause is actually a bit better-known than Vilsack, and Conlin, it turns out, has the best nums with 44-29 favorables. (Also recall that last December, Grassley only led Tom Vilsack by 48-44 in another R2K poll.)

Hopefully Conlin or Vilsack will get in. Either woman would bring considerable resources to bear – Conlin, thanks to her high profile and network of wealthy lawyers, and Vilsack, due to her strong brand name and powerful political connections. SSP currently pegs this as a “Race to Watch,” but if we get a top-tier challenger, that rating might soon change. (Discussion is also underfoot in this diary.)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43

Terry Brandstad (R): 48

Undecided: 9

Chet Culver (D-inc): 55

Bob Vander Plaats (R): 33

Undecided: 12

Chet Culver (D-inc): 58

Chris Rants (R): 28

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4%)

How frustrating – Gov. Chet Culver utterly swamps a couple of unknown candidates, but along comes former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad showing the incumbent in a very vulnerable position. Branstad is still in “exploratory phase” – he just resigned as president of Des Moines University on Friday, but hasn’t officially announced a run yet. Lingering unhappiness over events from his long tenure, as well as a possible right-wing vs. establishment split, could pose some roadblocks for Branstad. But right now, Culver ought to be very concerned.

SSP currently rates this race a Tossup. (More on this poll in this diary.)

39 thoughts on “IA-Sen/IA-Gov: Grassley & Culver Are Both Vulnerable”

  2. When it comes to an elected official from long ago, people are forgiving of small disagreements on policy, and forgetting of what they disliked about someone.  I recall a Gallup poll early this year that showed a retrospective job approval in the 60s for all living past Presidents except Dubya, and that includes Carter and Bush 41 who were severely disliked when they were defeated.  Does that mean either of them could come back and get elected President?  Not a chance.

    Branstad was never UNpopular like a defeated incumbent is, but he has his baggage, his negatives.  There’s plenty of material to use against him.  And his favorables can be knocked down and his unfavorables raised with the right messaging by Culver.

    I’m neither surprised nor concerned by an early poll showing Culver narrowly trailing Branstad.  And I don’t buy another previous poll or two that showed Branstad beating Culver by a big margin–that’s not realistic as an evaluation of the current race, not any more than an old spring poll that showed Castle beating Beau Biden by 21 in DE-Sen.

  3. is only winning by 5 we are in very good shape. His negatives still haven’t been exposed. If this is honestly where we are at right now I’m confident that Culver will be re-elected.

    Also, I really hope Vilsack runs. Grassley is not only an annoying twit, he’s also terrible on healthcare and a denier of climate change. Out of all the Republican incumbents that we have a viable chance at in 2010 Grassley is the one I’d love to defeat the most with Vitter only losing narrowly due to the reactionary nature of his Democratic opponent (who I still want to win, but I won’t ever be exited by).

  4. Branstad was never thinking about getting back into politics until the serious recruitment effort started this spring/summer. If the Republican heavy-hitters thought anyone on their bench had the slightest chance of beating Culver, no one would have recruited Branstad.

    So ironically, Culver might have been better off if polls had made him out to be a bit more vulnerable in the spring. The the GOP establishment might have been deluded into thinking they could beat him with Vander Plaats and Rants.

    The Republican bench in Iowa is phenomenally weak. Branstad was quite mediocre as governor, as shown by the fact that he almost lost his own party’s primary to Fred Grandy in 1994. I still have not heard of any precedent for a three-term incumbent governor nearly losing his own party’s primary in the absence of some personal scandal. Usually the whole party establishment gets behind an incumbent when there is a primary challenger, but lots of Republican officials backed Grandy in 1994. That’s how incompetent Branstad was.

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