EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, “active voters,” 5/18-21 in parentheses)
Primaries:
John Cherry (D): 33 (14)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)
George Perles (D): 3 (2)
Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)
John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)
Undecided: 54 (26)Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)
Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)
Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)
Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)
Tom George (R): 2 (1)
Undecided: 24 (25)
(MoE: ±4%)
General:
John Cherry (D): 33 (36)
Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)John Cherry (D): 30 (36)
Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)John Cherry (D): 30
Mike Bouchard (R): 39John Cherry (D): 34
Rick Snyder (R): 32
(MoE: ±4%)
We’ve already used the joke “Cherry’s Numbers Are the Pits,” so I won’t bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he’s losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder — probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)
The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) — which would explain why Cherry (and “undecided”) are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you’ve gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.
RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov
He can’t win.
I can not understand like they can think in vote no-one republican after see Obama saving GM and Chrysler, and after see republicans rejecting this public help for GM and Chrysler.
Michigan people voting republican for governor in 2010? I can not understand. Seems the forget easy the help.
Or is she simply in the wrong place at the wrong time? If it’s just a case of folks being upset that things aren’t getting better, the Democrats might be ok, though it would be nice to have a candidate with more inspiring polls. Still, I can’t see the Republicans running and winning on Michigan on the economy. So who knows, this could end up being the equivalent of New Jersey to some degree.
I’m glad Hoekstra leads the primary though. He won’t win Oakland, Macomb Counties, nor will he play well up north. Bouchard and Cox very well might. Hoekstra is a joke anyway. He is a walking gaffe machine and too conservative for Michigan. He’ll play well in Kent County and bring out the base in Ottawa. Cherry is a disappointment, but we’ve got a poor bench and I would never ever support Andy Dillon. Nor would the state as a whole, I think.
coming up on election night next month. District 19, Mark Schauer’s old Senate seat. Very competitive. I think that the Republican has the edge but we’ll see. It is very important to who controls the Senate in 2012.
the best a Republican can do is 45%, this seems to have “Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters in a holding pattern” written all over it.
Cherry isn’t really that well-known. He hasn’t been a high profile person in the state. I would guess that his name recognition is fairly low. Granholm polled poorly early in the 2006 campaign and won by 14%. So I wouldn’t put too much faith in polls this early.
I think Cox’s numbers will drop. He has personal baggage and is also connected to very disliked former mayor of Detroit. News on his connection to former Mayor Kilpatrick continues develop.
Rick Synder is very unknown and would likely run the same failed 2006 campagin that DeVos used (“I’m a businessman, vote for me!).
I think it will come down to Hoekstra (the “real conservative”) and Bouchard (the moderate alternative). I think Boucahrd, who got a big endorsement from L. Brooks Patterson yesterday, will be the GOP nominee. Considering that Bouchard lost to Sen. Stabenow in 2006 by 16%, I’m not too worried about him.
In the end, I think the Republican candidates are fairly weak. I don’t see any of the current GOP candidates defeating Cherry.
You’d think it would attract the support of not only the electorate but also the big three.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
http://www.clickondetroit.com/…
Are there any other viable candidates we could run?
Does anyone know how the polling data was collected? This may seem to you like a silly question, but I used to do the phoning for some EPIC/MRA polls through outsourcing by EPIC/MRA. While I can attest to my efforts to conduct the interview as it was correctly structured, I can tell you that many of my coworkers did not. And I witnessed interviews, horrible at worst and sloppy at best, that the supervisors didn’t give a shit about. My coworkers’ motivations were to complete as many as possible in order to achieve productivity (the job depended on it) with no concern for methodology and with incredibly ignorant supervision. The supervisors were happy to turn completed surveys into EPIC/MRA (which we quantified for them) as long as someone was actually interviewed. Based on my experience, I could never trust EPIC/MRA polling unless I trusted how their data is collected. How do these results line up with other polling sources?