Virginia House of Delegates Targets: Final Edition

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 35th (open) 23rd (Valentine) 44th (open) 51st (Nichols) 52nd (open) 64th (Barlow) 3rd (Bowling) 21st (Mathieson) 32nd (Poisson) 34th (Vanderhye) 42nd (Albo) 67th (Caputo) 86th (Rust) 93rd (Hamilton) 6th (Crockett-Stark) 13rd (B. Marshall) 17th (open) 83rd (Bouchard) 7th (Nutter) 14th (D. Marshall) 73rd (O’Bannon) Ratings changes since last time: 3rd – moved to Tossup from Likely Democratic 6th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup 7th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican 14th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican 17th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup 23rd – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic 32nd – moved to Tossup from Likely Democratic 35th – (Re)added to the list at Likely Democratic 44th – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic 58th – dropped from the list 67th – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic 82nd – dropped from the list 83rd – moved to Lean Republican (pickup) from Tossup 87th – dropped from the list 93rd – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic (pickup) 94th – dropped from the list

Here we are at the end of the campaign, and, well, Democratic chances suck. It will really depend on how well (or how badly) Deeds does at the top of the ticket. If he can keep McDonnell’s margin between 6-8 points, the Democrats might squeak by with minimal losses. If McDonnell wins big, say, by 12-14 points, expect a bloodbath. Democrats’ one saving grace may be history: since 1997, the largest number of incumbents to lose in a cycle was 4, in 2001 (and at least one of those was due to redistricting). If the power of incumbency holds true, Democratic losses may not be too severe, even in a double-digit McDonnell landslide.

For the final breakdown, I’ve arranged the target lists in the order of likelihood they will flip. Of course, the lists are not really equal, as it’s likely that the Democrats will only pick up 1 or 2 seats, while the Republicans could easily pick up 5 or more.

Democratic Targets

1. 52nd: open (Jeff Frederick retiring); Rafael Lopez vs. Luke Torian (Prince William)

Jeff Frederick, ostracized by his party, is retiring, so the Republican nominee is Rafael Lopez, who has run an anemic campaign: in September, he raised a whopping $670. It seems the Republicans aren’t even bothering to contest this seat. Democrats chose pastor Luke Torian in the primary, who will likely cruise to victory in November.

2. 93rd: Phil Hamilton vs. Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News)

Hamilton represents a Democratic district that has only gotten stronger in recent years, but hasn’t faced an opponent since 1995. Now he’s going up against attorney Robin Abbott. Like Albo, Hamilton has sensed danger and is suckling at the teat for PAC money. Hamilton has run into quite a bit of trouble about a job he was given by Old Dominion University that sprung from an appropriation he made for the school, particularly lying about not having any communication with them about it. Donations continue to roll into his campaign, though, mostly from his fellow Republican Delegates. He retains a 2-1 cash advantage over Abbott, so he’s not going down without a fight, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to buy his way out of the hole he’s dug himself into. Two things going for Hamilton are McDonnell’s likely victory in the district, and the fact that the furor over his scandal may have peaked too soon.

3. 86th: Tom Rust vs. Stevens Miller (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Rust’s first serious challenge came in 2007, when he was held to 53% by Jay Donohue. The district has made a sharp left turn to the Democrats, voting 62% for Obama in 2008. Rust is being challenged this time by Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller. Miller’s geographic location may help, as in 2007 Rust only narrowly won the Fairfax part of the district but dominated the Loudoun portion 55-45. Rust’s two saving graces are his large cash advantage over Miller (Miller’s fundraising has lacked, although the Democratic Party has stepped in big time) and, oddly enough, McDonnell’s coattails. Even though Deeds will still win this district, it probably won’t be by the 56-44 margin that he did in 2005.

4. 42nd: Dave Albo vs. Greg Werkheiser (Fairfax)

Dave Albo is notorious for being the driving force (no pun intended) behind the incredibly-unpopular abusive driving fees that were passed in 2007 and summarily repealed the next year. Greg Werkheiser, Albo’s 2005 opponent who came within a few percent of beating Albo, is running again. Albo has realized the peril he’s in and pumped a bunch of PAC money into his account. Democratic Party spending has helped even the odds for Werkheiser, though. Albo has given Werkheiser an issue to beat him around the head with in the last days of the campaign — he recently said he’d like to bring back the abusive driving fees.

5. 13th: Bob Marshall vs. John Bell (Loudoun, Prince William)

Bob Marshall is a far-right culture warrior in a rapidly-expanding Northern Virginia district (it has twice as many registered voters as most other House districts and narrowly voted for Obama last year after supporting Republicans in the past). He trounced Bruce Roemmelt in 2005 and 2007, but Air Force vet John Bell looks to be a stronger challenger, having outspent Marshall a staggering 5-1; however, Marshall is very good at holding this seat without spending a lot of money.

6. 6th: Anne Crockett-Stark vs. Carole Pratt (Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe)

Anne Crockett-Stark picked up this seat in 2005, then failed to increase her margin much in 2007, winning 54-46 then 56-44. Challenger Carole Pratt was a last-minute fill-in, but her campaign is incredibly energetic, having more than doubled Crockett-Stark’s cash on hand and wrested the Virginia Education Association endorsement from her. However, this district is pretty Republican, and Crockett-Stark’s saving grace will probably be McDonnell’s coattails.

7. 17th: open (William Fralin retiring); Bill Cleaveland vs. Gwen Mason (Botetourt, Roanoke County, Roanoke City)

This is an open seat, the only reason this seat is a target, as it’s a pretty solidly Republican district (although Kaine did get 47% there). Democrat Gwen Mason, a member of the Roanoke City Council, was able to sit back and accrue a war chest as five Republicans battled it out for the nomination, in which attorney Bill Cleaveland emerged as the Republican victor. Cleaveland doesn’t seem to have much of a base in the district — he lives in Botetourt, the smallest part of the district, although his practice is in the City of Roanoke. His post-primary fundraising is also sputtering, aside from a large infusion of cash from a couple sources, including the retiring Fralin. McDonnell will likely win big here, though, which will be a drag on Mason.

8. 73rd: John O’Bannon vs. Thomas Shields (Henrico, Richmond City)

Suburban Richmond is home to John O’Bannon, who is being challenged by college professor Thomas Shields. This is actually the first time a Democrat has bothered to run against O’Bannon, who succeeded Eric Cantor following his election to Congress in 2000. Shields hasn’t found a way to overcome the large cash advantage that O’Bannon has, and I was about to write this off, but the Democratic Party has stepped in on his behalf. I still don’t expect much from this race, but if they sense something here, who knows.

9. 14th: Danny Marshall vs. Seward Anderson (Danville, Henry, Pittsylvania)

Danny Marshall narrowly held off Adam Tomer in 2007 52-48, and faces former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson this time. The problem for Anderson is winning enough of the vote in Pittsylvania; Marshall narrowly lost Danville in 2007 but won an overwhelming 63% in Pittsylvania to hold on. The district is swingy, voting for Deeds, Kaine, and Obama while also voting for Allen and Bolling, and Allen was the only one to hit 54% in the district. Anderson has a large cash deficit; Marshall has rocketed to a 2-1 cash on hand advantage as of September, so Anderson has quite a bit of ground to make up in the last days of the campaign.

10. 7th: Dave Nutter vs. Peggy Frank (Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)

Nutter won 53-47 over Peggy Frank in 2007, and she’s come back for a rematch. There hasn’t been much news out of this race, and the rematch will likely end up with a wider margin for Nutter, as Frank’s campaign fundraising has petered out in the last weeks of the campaign.

Republican Targets

1. 83rd: Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle (Virginia Beach)

Retired Navy Commander Joe Bouchard defeated Chris Stolle, brother of State Sen. Ken Stolle, by a mere 131 votes in 2007. Stolle has come back for a rematch, and hasn’t learned how to fundraise on his own, but he has friends in high places: brother Ken is running for Virginia Beach sheriff (a race he will likely win in a landslide) and Chris has had over $300,000 dumped into his campaign over the past month by the state Republicans. The Democrats are helping Bouchard out as well, but in a smaller capacity. Compounding the problem for Bouchard is the district’s Republican lean — it went 55-45 for McDonnell in 2005. This combination of factors, plus the fact that Deeds is not going to improve on his 2005 performance here, lead me to believe that Bouchard is fighting a losing battle.

2. 67th: Chuck Caputo vs. Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Chuck Caputo easily defeated wingnut Chris Craddock to win an open Republican seat in 2005, then nearly lost the seat in 2007, winning only 53-47 against Marc Cadin. Now he will face another challenge, this time from entrepreneur Jim LeMunyon. Caputo is outspending LeMunyon heavily, which may be enough to let him squeak by, but he will get no help from Deeds’ coattails, or lack thereof.

3. 34th: Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock (Fairfax)

When longtime incumbent Vince Callahan retired in 2007, this was considered an easy pickup. He was the last Republican from inside the beltway in the House of Delegates, and the district was won by every Democrat from John Kerry forward. However, Margi Vanderhye only managed a 3% victory. She’s being challenged by Barbara Comstock, a much more conservative Republican than the moderate Callahan. This race is one of the most expensive House races of 2009, with Comstock having raised $450,000 and Vanderhye $400,000; Vanderhye has been more judicious in her expenditures, though, and entered the last month of the campaign with a $127,000 to $100,000 cash advantage. It’s possible that McDonnell becomes the first statewide Republican candidate to win this year; if he does, he will probably pull Comstock along the finish line.

4. 21st: Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva (Virginia Beach)

Mathieson trounced incumbent Republican John Welch in 2007, but this time he faces Ron Villanueva, a member of the Virginia Beach City Council, who has twice been elected citywide. There is a small but significant Filipino community in Virginia Beach which Villanueva might be able to appeal to, and this is Bob McDonnell’s home turf, definitely a boon for any Republican running here. However, working against the Republicans is the fact that this is the most Democratic House district in the city (although still won by McDonnell in 2005), and Villanueva’s fundraising has lagged behind Mathieson’s so far, although the Republican State Leadership Commitee has pumped $80,000 into his campaign in October. News broke in September that one of Mathieson’s aides embezzled campaign funds, but it hasn’t seemed to slow down his campaign any.

5. 32nd: David Poisson vs. Tag Greason (Loudoun)

Poisson underperformed in 2007 after defeating Dick Black in 2005. His 2009 opponent, Tag Greason, seems pretty weak, but with McDonnell poised to win in this district (he won here 51-49 in 2005 and will expand that margin this year), Greason could easily be pulled in by his coattails. Both candidates are being helped out significantly by their respective parties.

6. 3rd: Dan Bowling vs. Will Morefield (Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)

Bowling was elected in a 2006 special election by a 60-28 margin, and was unopposed in 2007. He hasn’t done much in the way of fundraising, while his opponent this time, Will Morefield, has been the beneficiary of $80,000 in in-kinds and a $40,000 check from the Republican State Leadership Committee, suggesting that the Republicans are up on his chances. Although Deeds won this district in 2005, it’s far from certain that he will this time, so Bowling can’t depend on coattails.

7. 51st: Paul Nichols vs. Richard Anderson (Prince William)

Nichols picked up this seat from retiring Republican Michele McQuigg in 2007 against a pretty lame opponent, but similar to Vanderhye, only won by about 4%. He’s facing Richard Anderson in November. Nichols loaned himself $100k to get a leg up on Anderson; he’s since repaid those loans and still remains far ahead of Anderson in cash on hand. Anderson’s fundraising dried up in September, leaving him totally dependent on the Republican Party for assistance.

8. 23rd: Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett (Amherst, Lynchburg)

Valentine won the seat in a 2006 special election and was unopposed in 2007, but this year she will face Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the June primary. Garrett apparently blew his wad in the primary — after spending $115,000 on a 54-46 primary win, he’s now seriously trailing Shannon Valentine in money, although he has received a $50,000 check from the Republican State Leadership Committee. Also, Garrett will get a boost from Liberity University, where classes have been cancelled to get the students out to vote for the Republican ticket. Valentine has proven herself a popular figure in Lynchburg, but a victory here is far from certain.

9. 64th: Bill Barlow vs. Stan Clark vs. Albert Burckard Jr. (Franklin City, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, Surry, Williamsburg)

Barlow is a longtime incumbent who has been winning with shrinking margins over the years, from 65-32 in 1999 to just 54-45 in 2005, his last contested election. The Republicans have chosen Isle of Wight County Supervisor Stan Clark to face off against him, and Independent Green Albert Burckard Jr., who also ran in 2005, will also be on the ballot. Barlow is ahead in money coming into the home stretch (Clark has raised virtually nothing but is getting a lot of in-kinds from the Republican Party), but Clark may be able to cut into Barlow’s base in Isle of Wight. Compounding matters is the issue of a proposed coal power plant in Surry: contrary to what you might expect, Barlow has taken the “support” side, while Clark has taken the “oppose” side. Barlow’s support may cost him some needed votes in Democratic Surry County.

10. 44th: open (Kris Amundson retiring); Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville vs. Glenda Gail Parker (Fairfax)

Admunson retired in late June, giving the Republicans a leg up with a decent fundraiser, Jay McConville, but the substitute candidate, Fairfax County Democratic party chair Scott Surovell, took no time catching up, and is running an energetic campaign. In addition, the district is pretty Democratic, which helps Surovell’s chances. However, open seats tend to be unpredictable, and the Deeds campaign won’t be providing long coattails for the Democratic candidates, even in Fairfax. The third candidate in the race is our favorite light rail-supporting perennial candidate, Glenda Gail Parker of the Indy Greens.

11. 35th: open (Steve Shannon retiring); Mark Keam vs. James Hyland (Fairfax)

I dropped this from the list but it’s back on considering how badly the election seems to be going. Brief recap: Keam wins primary overwhelmingly, Hyland doesn’t raise much money, Keam is still the favorite, but open seats are tricky things.

One More to Watch

91st: Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel vs. Sam Eure (Hampton, Poquoson, York)

This won’t cause a change in the House of Delegates, but I thought it was an interesting race nonetheless. Gear is being challenged by Democrat Sam Eure (who has raised nearly no money and his last campaign was for York County Board of Superviors — he lost by 15 percent) and Republican-turned-Independent Gordon Helsel, the Mayor of Poquoson, who has outraised Gear so far this year. The district is about 50-50 split between Hampton and Poquoson/York, and each locality has their own candidate — Gear from Hampton, Helsel from Poquoson, and Eure from York. Gear, however, performed weakest in Hampton the last time he was opposed, against an independent in 2005. He only won Hampton 57-42, whereas he won Poquoson and York with over 60%. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out.

Dropped from the List

58th: Rob Bell vs. Cynthia Neff (Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Orange)

Another masterful Republican gerrymander, this district is basically a New Jersey-shaped wedge around Charlottesville that has an ever-so-slight Republican lean. Bell faces a challenge from Cynthia Neff, a retired IBM executive, but Bell has a ridiculous amount of money — over $500,000 on hand. Not a typo, half a million dollars. I guess he’s been wanting to run statewide for a while. Neff has no way of overcoming that cash advantage at this point.

82nd: Bob Purkey vs. Peter Schmidt vs. John Parmele (Virginia Beach)

Purkey, a former Wall Street broker with over two decades of tenure in the House of Delegates, sleepwalks through one campaign after another, as he’s usually unopposed. His first serious opponent in years is Republican-turned-Democrat Peter Schmidt, who challenged Purkey in the Republican primary in 2005. McDonnell will win here with over 60%, so Purkey doesn’t need to campaign to win (and really, that’s pretty much what he does). Independent John Parmele, who lost 71-29 to Purkey in a two-way race in 2005, will be the third option on the ballot.

87th: Paula Miller vs. John Amiral (Norfolk)

Miller picked up Thelma Drake’s House of Delegates seat in a 2004 special election, and since then has not topped 54% of the vote. She may do it this time, though, as her opponent, Navy vet John Amiral, hasn’t done much of anything to get elected in his own right, nor has he received any help from the Republican Party. Although Amiral will probably get a boost from McDonnell here, the district isn’t Republican enough to lift him to victory.

94th: Glenn Oder vs. Gary West (Newport News)

Oder hasn’t faced a Democrat since he defeated John Miller (now a State Senator) 54-46 when he was first elected to the House in 2001. This year he is challenged by attorney Gary West, who has run a spirited campaign but lags far behind in money. Not going to be close.