Bill Owens (D): 33 (35)
Dede Scozzafava (R): 21 (30)
Doug Hoffman (C): 32 (23)
Undecided: 14 (12)
The new poll of NY-23 from Research 2000 doesn’t go as far as the two Doug Hoffman internal polls in showing the Hoffman surge (they showed him in the lead), but they do give the momentum to the Conservative Party candidate. Democrat Bill Owens has lost a little ground, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has basically collapsed over the last couple weeks. Hoffman’s performance is strongest among independents — I’s go 47% for Hoffman, with 28 for Owens and 11 for Scozzafava — while also leading among Republicans (41 for Hoffman, 34 for Scozzafava, and 13 for Owens).
Scozzafava’s approvals have also fallen like a rock (down to 32/46), compared with 38/23 for Hoffman and 36/26 for Owens. We’ll get some more confirmation on these trends soon, as Siena and PPP both have polls in the works here too.
There’s a lot else going on in the 23rd:
• New 48 hours reports show Hoffman leading the field in fundraising over the last couple days ($32K, including contributions from the leadership PACs of Reps. Steve King, John Linder, and Jeff Flake), Owens not far behind at $27K, and Scozzafava lagging at $12K.
• Newly-formed (i.e. last week) right-wing group Common Sense in America is engaged in some rope-a-dope advertising, running a TV ad that claims that Scozzafava is the “best choice for progressives,” in an effort to steer Republican voters away from her and to Hoffman. The group’s founder is Arkansas businessman Jackson Stephens, also a board member of the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, there’s also an anti-Owens TV ad up from the Hoffman camp, calling him Nancy Pelosi’s “lackey.”
• The local establishment is still sticking with Scozzafava, as seen by her endorsement from the Watertown Daily Times (Watertown is the core of her Assembly district). However, a who’s who of the behind-the-scenes puppetmasters of the movement conservatives (Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, American Conservative Union head David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie) all signed a letter jointly endorsing Hoffman.