NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/26-28, likely voters, 10/19-21 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (35)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 21 (30)

Doug Hoffman (C): 32 (23)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4%)

The new poll of NY-23 from Research 2000 doesn’t go as far as the two Doug Hoffman internal polls in showing the Hoffman surge (they showed him in the lead), but they do give the momentum to the Conservative Party candidate. Democrat Bill Owens has lost a little ground, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has basically collapsed over the last couple weeks. Hoffman’s performance is strongest among independents — I’s go 47% for Hoffman, with 28 for Owens and 11 for Scozzafava — while also leading among Republicans (41 for Hoffman, 34 for Scozzafava, and 13 for Owens).

Scozzafava’s approvals have also fallen like a rock (down to 32/46), compared with 38/23 for Hoffman and 36/26 for Owens. We’ll get some more confirmation on these trends soon, as Siena and PPP both have polls in the works here too.

There’s a lot else going on in the 23rd:

• New 48 hours reports show Hoffman leading the field in fundraising over the last couple days ($32K, including contributions from the leadership PACs of Reps. Steve King, John Linder, and Jeff Flake), Owens not far behind at $27K, and Scozzafava lagging at $12K.

• Newly-formed (i.e. last week) right-wing group Common Sense in America is engaged in some rope-a-dope advertising, running a TV ad that claims that Scozzafava is the “best choice for progressives,” in an effort to steer Republican voters away from her and to Hoffman. The group’s founder is Arkansas businessman Jackson Stephens, also a board member of the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, there’s also an anti-Owens TV ad up from the Hoffman camp, calling him Nancy Pelosi’s “lackey.”

• The local establishment is still sticking with Scozzafava, as seen by her endorsement from the Watertown Daily Times (Watertown is the core of her Assembly district). However, a who’s who of the behind-the-scenes puppetmasters of the movement conservatives (Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, American Conservative Union head David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie) all signed a letter jointly endorsing Hoffman.

RaceTracker: NY-23

75 thoughts on “NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains”

  1. and has a MASSIVE advantage with independents (many of whom are IDing themselves as such because they aren’t voting for the Republican in this race). If Hoffman further consolidates Republican support, he will win.  

  2. I imagine his GOTV effort with the teabagging gang is gonna be awfully strong. Meanwhile, Scozzafava’s support is tanking, and yet the biggest paper in the district opts to endorse her. Oh well.

  3. What if the GOP had simply picked Hoffman, and this was just Owens vs. Hoffman?

    Do you think Hoffman could win that?  A far-right teabagger with no electoral experience from outside the district, beating a moderate Democrat in a district Obama won?

    If not, then how is Hoffman going to win with an actual elected Republican member of the assembly in the race too?  The R2K poll doesn’t show Scozzafava taking significant numbers of Democrats away from Owens (only 13%), in fact she is taking a significant number of Republicans away from Hoffman (34%, holding Hoffman to only 41% of GOP voters).

    With the GOP base clearly split, and the Democratic vote mostly united (64% for Owens so far), how does Hoffman win this thing?

  4. Doesn’t live in the district.

    Doesn’t know the issues.

    Made a huge gaffe on Fort Drum (at least imho).

    Has no electoral experience.

    I don’t understand why voters think that he deserves to be elected.  

  5. If Hoffman is really up 37-29-22 among 60+ers, I think he is probably gonna win. This poll also has only 60% age 60+, and 15% age 18-29. I sort of doubt that is what the electorate is gonna look like.

    Of course, it being a special election, if the Dems have sent a bunch of people up to do GOTV, maybe Owens can pull it off. GOTV is where he could have an edge – I assume Hoffman does not actually have any actual field campaign infrastructure.

  6. I wouldnt assume its too shabby. Susan B. Anthony has sent out 6 volunteers to help with that, and I bet the CfG will be helping him big time with that.  

  7. What part of Dede’s vote is coming from Democrats? She is very liberal and has a lot of Labor support. What part of her vote is coming from Owens? Are liberal Republicans and Labor Dems who voted for Obama now backing Scozzafava.

    Could she end up being a spoiler for Owens?

  8. Sorry, its an RS link. This was only confirmed minutes ago, so there is no other link


    This could be the game changer. Pataki is still really popular upstate.

    Is anyone else reading deeper into this? Trying to get Conservative support for a Senate election?  

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