Let’s get ready to rumble! Swing State Project is offering up its usual grand prize — delicious chocolate babka, courtesy of DavidNYC — for the swingnut who comes closest to picking the outcomes of the four big elections tomorrow. We’ll need you to give the percentages for each option in each of the following races; just post them in the comments:
• NY-23 (Owens, Scozzafava, and Hoffman) (and yes, we know Scozzafava is officially out, but you still need to guess what percentage of people still vote for her!)
• NJ-Gov (Corzine, Christie, and Daggett)
• VA-Gov (Deeds and McDonnell)
• Maine Question 1: (yes and no)
The person with the net closest answers wins. Of course, there’s lots more going on tomorrow, so feel free to offer your predictions on CA-10, Washington’s R-71, New York mayor, Boston mayor, Atlanta mayor, Charlotte mayor, or anything else your heart desires — you just won’t get extra credit for it. The contest closes at 7 pm Eastern/4 pm Pacific tomorrow, as Virginia’s polls close.
UPDATE (7pm, 11/3): The contest is now closed!
• NY-23 – Owens 48%, Scozzafava 6%, and Hoffman 46%
• NJ-Gov – Corzine 46% Christie 45% and Daggett 9%
• VA-Gov – Deeds 44% and McDonnell 55%
• Maine Question 1 – yes 47% and no 53%
NY23: Hoffman 54
Owens: 40
Scozzafava: 6
NJ-GOV: Christie 45
Corzine: 42
Daggett: 8
VA-Gov: McDonnell: 57
Deeds: 42
Maine: Discriminate: 51
Oppose Discrimination: 49
NY 23
Hoffman 44
Owens 37
Dede 8
NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 44
Daggett 10
Va
McDonnell 57
Deeds 41
Question 1
No 49
Yes 49
NY-23:
Hoffman – 48%
Owens – 46%
Scozzafava – 6%
NJ-Gov:
Christie – 46%
Corzine – 45%
Daggett – 9%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 59%
Deeds – 41%
Maine Question 1:
“No” – 52%
“Yes” – 48%
NY-23:
Owens – 48%
Hoffman – 46%
Scozzafava – 6%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 46%
Christie – 46%
Daggett – 8%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 59%
Deeds – 41%
Maine Question 1:
“Yes” – 52%
“No” – 48%
NY 23
Hoffman 49
Owens 44
Scozzafava 7
NJ (Gov)
Corzine 47
Christie 44
Daggett 9
VA (Gov)
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43
Question 1
Yes 51.2
No 48.8
ny-23
Owens 49
Hoffman 46
Scoz 4
NJ
Corzine 44
Christie 43
Daggett 10
VA
McD 57
Deeds 43
Maine
N 52
Y 48
But I will try my hand anyway
NY-23:
Owens – 47% (win)
Hoffman – 47%
Scozzafava – 6%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 48%
Christie – 47%
Daggett – 5%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 54%
Deeds – 46%
Maine Question 1:
“Yes” – 49%
“No” – 51%
Hoffman 49
Owens 46
Dede 5
(Had we had another two weeks, this would have been different)
Christie 44 (win)
Corzine 44
Daggett 12
(Shades of 1993 with Whitman-Florio)
McDonnell 58
Deeds 41
(McDonnell narrowly wins Northern Virginia)
pro-equality (No) 51
pro-bigotry (Yes) 49
Bonus (close to home for me):
Conservative Republican Mark Czjakowski pulls off a huge upset and defeats liberal Democrat (who is gay) Mark Kleinschmidt 51-49 for mayor of Chapel Hill.
NY-23….Hoffman 48, Owens 42, Scozzofava 8
NJ-Gov….Christie 46, Corzine 41, Daggett 10
VA-Gov….McDonnell 58, Deeds 41
Maine….Discrimation 53, Nondiscrimination 47
And I don’t know the candidate names in CA-10, but I’m predicting a weak three-point Dem margin.
Perhaps a bit too optimistic, but oh well. Hopefully I’ll be correct.
NY-23: Owens: 47.3%; Hoffman: 46.7%; Scozzafava: 6%
NJ-Gov: Corzine: 46%; Christie: 43%; Daggett: 11%
VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56%; Deeds: 44%
ME 1: No: 52%; Yes: 48%
And, for fun:
NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg: 55%; Thompson: 43%; Others: 2%
WA 71: Yes: 54%; No: 46%
Charlotte-Mayor: Lassiter: 53%; Foxx: 47%
Virginia
McDonnel 56%
Deeds 43%
McDonnell absolutely crushes in the Hampton Roads (wins Virginia Beach with about 63% of the vote) and loses in Northern Virginia but carries Prince William and Loudon Counties by about 10 points.
Maine Question 1
Equal rights 52%
Anti Equal rights 48%
There seems to be an extremely large amount of volunteers for the no side. I heard that some people who planned to vote no were complaining about too many people calling them to remind them to vote.
NJ Governor
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
For more info on my opinion about this race, you should check out my recent diary. It should still be up.
NY-23
Hoffman 49%
Owens 44%
Scoffaza 7%
Owens will begin an upward climb but it should not be enough. Hoffman should probably lose in 2010 once a Republican runs for the seat and splits the vote with Hoffman.
CA-10
Garamendi 55%
Karmer 45%
Washington Domestic Partnership inititive
I have not seen much polling there but the pro domestic partnership side should win.
NY -23
Hoffman 49
Owens 43
Scoz 8
NJ
Christie 45
Corzine 43
Daggett 11
Other 1
VA
McDonnell 58
Deeds 41
Maine
Yes 53
No 47
NY-23
Hoffman 48%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 6%
Other 2%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 44%
Christie 42%
Daggett 10%
Other 4%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 54%
Deeds 45%
Other 1%
ME-Gay Marriage
Yes 51%
No 49%
CA-10
Garamendi 54%
Harmer 44%
Other 2%
NY-Mayor
Bloomberg 56%
Thompson 42%
Other 2%
NY-23 – Hoffman 48%; Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%;
NJ-Gov – Corzine 43% Christie 42% and Daggett 15%;
VA-Gov – McDonnell 56%; Deeds 44%
Maine Question 1 – yes 50% and no 49%.
We will win CA-10 54-46.
NY-23:
Owens – 46%
Hoffman – 43%
Scozzafava – 9%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 47%
Christie – 44%
Daggett – 8%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 54%
Deeds – 45%
Maine Question 1:
“No” – 51%
“Yes” – 49%
Owens: 49%
Scozzafava: 3%
Hoffman: 48%
Corzine: 47.5%
Christie: 44%
Daggett: 8.5%
Deeds: 41.8%
McDonnell: 58.2%
Yes: 47%
No: 53%
NY-23:
Owens 48%
Hoffman 47%
Scozzafava 5%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine 46%
Christie 45%
Daggett 9%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
Maine Question 1:
No 52%
Yes 48%
NY-23 and NJ-Gov will be really tight; I didn’t want to get into decimals, so there’s an estimate.
And it is a strategic decision on my part (if I was betting money on each of these outcomes, I am guessing we do better than I am projecting here).
The strategy here is the same reason I pick USC in any football office pool, even though I am a loyal UCLA fan. I get some tangible benefit, not matter which way it turns out…
In this case, if I guess wrong, I’ll be happy because Democrats did well. If I guess right, I have a shot at the chocolate babka. Win-win!!
NY-23: Hoffman 52, Owens 41, Scozzafava 7
NJ-Gov: Christie 46, Corzine 44, Daggett/Otros 10
VA-Gov: McDonnell 57, Deeds 43
Question 1: Yes 51, No 49
NY-23:
Owens – 48%
Hoffman – 43%
Scozzafava – 9%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 43%
Christie – 42%
Daggett – 14%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 57%
Deeds – 41%
Maine 1:
For gay marriage – 54%
Against gay marriage – 46%
NY 23
Hoffman 47
Owens 42
Dede 6
New Jersey
Corzine 44
Christie 46
Daggett 10
Virginia
McDonnell 56
Deeds 42
Question 1
No 51
Yes 48
NJ:
Corzine-44
Christie-42
Daggett-12
VA:
McDonnell-56
Deeds-42
NY-23:
Hoffman-47
Owens-42
Scozzafava-7
Maine:
No-52
Yes-48
I have returned from Thursday in my time capsule to report as follows:
NY-23
Owens 47
Hoffman 46
Scozzafava 7
NJ-Gov
Corzine 44
Christie 42
Daggett 12
Others 2 (the biggest surprise of the night)
VA-Gov
McDonnell 55
Deeds 45 (he slightly overperforms as Dem turnout is slightly better than expected)
ME-Gay marriage referendum
No 51 (gay marriage survives)
Yes 49
Bonus races:
VA-LG
Bolling 53
Wagner 47
VA-AG
Cuccinelli 54
Shannon 46
VA-House
GOP net plus-2
NJ-Assembly
GOP net plus-2
New York:
Hoffmann 49%
Owens 40%
Scozzafava 10%
Jersey
Corzine 46%
Christie 43%
Daggett 11%
Virginia
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 43%
Maine
No 50%
Yes 49%
Lassiter and Kleinschmidt win by <4 in Charlotte and Chapel Hill
NY-23
Owens: 49%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 5%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 47%
Chrisie 44%
Daggett 9%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 54%
Deeds 45%
Maine (where no means yes to marriage equality)
No 52%
Yes 48%
NJ
Corzine: 45
Christie: 44
Daggett: 11
VA
McDonnell: 58
Deeds: 41
NY-23
Hoffman: 48
Owens: 45
Dede: 7
Maine Question 1
No: 52
Yes: 48
I hope I’m wrong on all of my predictions that aren’t New Jersey:
NY-23:
There is a 40% chance of rain in most of the district. Hoffman’s base of old people will show up to vote in the morning before the possible rain. Tea baggers will show up even if there is a tornado because they believe every lie about Obama. The Scozzafava endorsement of Owens will not be much of a factor because most voters will view it as sour grapes.
54% Hoffman
38% Owens
8% Dede
NJ-Gov:
New Jersey voters are too embarrassed to admit that they are voting for Corzine, so they are telling the pollsters that they are either undecided or Daggett voters. Some Corzine voters however will stay home even in the nice weather because they don’t approve of Corzine. Expect a close election where Corzine wins and Daggett underperforms the polls.
49% Corzine
45% Christie
6% Daggett
Va-Gov:
How low can Deeds go?
38% Deeds
62% McDonnell
Maine Question 1:
Those opposed to Gay Marriage are the most likely to vote.
54% Yes
46% No
NY-23: 48 Owens, 47 Hoffman, 5 Scozzafava
NJ-Gov: 47 Corzine, 46 Christie, 7 Daggett
VA-Gov: 58 McDonnell, 42 Deeds
Maine Question 1: 50.4 No, 49.6 Yes
Scozzafava 6
Hoffman 49
Owens 45
Corzine 45
Daggett 12
Christie 43
Deeds 41
McDonnell 59
Maine No 53
Yes 47
First time poster, long time reader
NY-23:
47% Owens
46% Hoffman
7% Scozzy
VA-Gov:
55% McDonnell
44% Deeds
1% Other
NJ-Gov:
45.7% Corzine
45.5% Christie
9.8% Daggett
CA-10:
57% Garamendi
42% Harmer
1% Other
ME-Init 1:
No: 51%
Yes: 49%
Hoffman 49
Owens 45
Dede 6
Christie 46
Corzine 45
Daggett 9
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42
Yes 49
No 51
Garamendi 54
Repub 46
Bob McDonnell – 56.3
Creigh Deeds – 43.6
Chris Christie – 46.1
Jon Corzine – 44.5
Chris Daggett – 7.8
Other – 1.6
Doug Hoffman – 48.8
Bill Owens – 45.0
Dede Scozzafava – 6.2
Yes – 49.5
No – 50.5
NY-23
49% Hoffman
48% Owens
3% Scozzafava
NJ-Gov
46% Corzine
45% Christie
8% Daggett
VA-GOV
56% McDonnell
44% Deeds
Maine Question 1
50% No (Margin of victory less than 2,000 votes)
50% Yes
Charlotte Mayor
(likely recount)
50% Foxx
50% Lassiter
Boston Mayor
65% Menino
35% Flaherty
NYC
56% Bloomberg
40% Thompson
CA-10
58% Garamendi
39% Harmer
NJ Gov
Corzine 44%
Corrupt McFraud 42%
Daggett 14%
NY-23
Wingnut 46%
Owens: 43%
Scozafazza: 8%
Question 1
No: 56%
Anti-marriage homophobes: 44%
VA-Gov
Misogynist hack: 56%
Deeds: 41%
CA-10
Garamendi: 58%
Harmer: 39%
VA
NcDonnell – 58%
Deeds – 42%
NJ
Corzine – 46%
Christie -45%
Daggett – 9%
NY-23
Owens – 47%
Hoffman-46%
Scozz – 7%
ME
Yes – 49%
No – 51%
VA: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 42%, other 2%. Further prediction: McDonnell gives GOP response to Obama’s 2010 State of the Union.
NJ: Corzine 45%, Cristie 44%, Dagget 7%, other 4%.
NY-23: Hoffman 48%, Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%
ME- Yes 52%, No 48%
47.0% Corzine
44.8% Christie
8% Daggett
Bob Mcdonnell 55%
Creigh Deeds 44.6%
Maine
Yes(against equal rights)50.2%
No(for equal rights)49.8%
After recount:
No 50.1%
Yes 49.9%
NY-23
Hoffman 49%
Owens 47%
Scozzafava 4.2%
Babka is not the reason for living, good humas is.
😛
Anyway, here is the illustrious ArkDem’s predictions, though I have never been stunningly accurate.
NJ GOV
Corzine 43%
Christie 41%
Daggett 16%
VA-GOV
McDonnell 53%
Deeds 47%
NY-23:
What the heck, I can’t stand Hoffman, any idiot who sits around blowing shallow cliched platitudes out of his ass to appeal to ignorant people, like most of the Republican party actually, doesn’t deserve to win a moderate New England district, he still might.
Owens 50%
Hoffman 44%
Scozzafava 6%
Maine Marriage Amendment:
Yes 48%
No 52%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 45%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine 49%
Christie 46%
Daggett 5%
NY-23:
Owens 50%
Hoffman 40%
Scozzafava 10%
ME Question 1:
No 52%
Yes 48%
NY-23
Owens – 50
Scozzafava – 9
Hoffman – 40
I am prepared to be wrong. Or gloriously right.
NJ-Gov
Corzine – 44
Christie – 47
Daggett – 6
Although Corzine very slightly outperforms his polls, Daggett drops and some of his voters go to Christie.
VA-Gov
Deeds – 39
McDonnell – 60
Deeds does not just lose, but loses very badly.
Maine Question 1
Yes – 46
No – 54
The consensus seems to be that this will be close. One way or another, it won’t be. One side or another will have an intensity gap. While normally with Gay Marriage it is the anti side that is more inclined, this time it is surprisingly the pro side that is motivated to vote.
All in all, a mixed bag. Disappointing for Dems in the Governorships, but good in NY-23 and ME.
NY-23: Owens 49%, Hoffman 48%, Scozzafava 3%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45%, Christie 44%, Daggett 11%
VA-Gov: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%
Maine Question 1: Yes 49%, No 51%
Additional prediction: If Democrats learn anything from Tuesday, Kaine will be out as DNC Chair by the end of the year.
http://notlarrysabato.typepad….
NY 23
Hoffman 46
Owens 47
Scozzafava 7
NJ (Gov)
Corzine 46
Christie 44
Daggett 10
VA (Gov)
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42
Question 1
Yes 48
No 52
to the sweet, delicious Babka before. I want that Babka!!!
Here goes:
Hoffman 50
Owens 44
Scozzafava 6
Corzine 45
Christie 44
Daggett 10
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43
No 52
Yes 48
NY23: Hoffman 47
Owens: 42
Scozzafava:11
NJ-GOV: Christie 37
Corzine: 41
Daggett: 22
VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56
Deeds: 444
Maine: Discriminate: 47
Oppose Discrimination: 53
NY-23:
Owens – 43%
Hoffman – 47%
Scozzafava – 5%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 46%
Christie – 44%
Daggett – 10%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 56%
Deeds – 43%
Maine Question 1:
“Yes” – 49.8%
“No” – 50.2%
But I am halfway to believing that the way to hell out of NYC is through Holland tunnel.
I’m going to skip it to watch these results. I’m going to need a drink by the end of the night.
VA-GOV (Blowout)
McDonnell (R) – 57%
Deeds (D) – 43%
Bonus, Dems lose NET 6 state house seats
NJ-GOV (The bright spot due to better GOTV machine)
Corzine (D) – 47%
Christie (R) – 45%
Daggett (I) – 8%%
Bonus, Dems lose NET 2 state house seats
NY-23 (Needed more time on the clock)
Hoffman (C) – 49%
Owens (D) – 46%
Scozz (R) – 5%
ME-INT (California Redux)
Yes (Discriminate) – 50.2%
No (Freedom) – 49.8%
HOUSTON – Mayor
Parker gets first (mid 30s%), Brown gets second by 2% over Locke (mid 20s%). the lone Republican, Morales, finishes distant fourth (15%).
I doubt I’ll get close, but hey….guessing is fun!
NY-23:
Owens: 46%
Hoffman: 44%
Dede: 8%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 42%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 14%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 44%
Maine Q1:
Yes/No – exactly tied percentage-wise (50-50) but Maine keeps gay marriage by less than 1% of votes.
so I’m going to be a little more pessimistic tonight on some races.
NY-23: Hoffman 49.3%, Owens 46.7%, Dede 4%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 46.5%, Christie 44.5%, Daggett 9%
VA-Gov: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44%
Maine Question 1: No 50.8%, Yes 49.2%
OK, been a huge fan of the site, just now registered for a chance at food. NY-23 Owens 49 Scozzafava 3 Hoffman 48 NJ-Gov Corzine 47 Daggett 7 Christie 46 VA-Gov McD 59 Deeds 41 (this being the two-way vote; I think other, no matter who it is, will get a couple of points) Maine Q1 Reject gay marriage (Yes) 46 Good Guys (No) 54 Bonii: No changes to Republican in the NJ state Assembly. Washington races (thank you, The Stranger): Constantine wins, McGinn wins (in what would be a squeaker if it weren't all announced at the same time), gay rights win with R-71.
NY-23
Hoffman-51%
Owens-46%
Scozzafava-3%
NJ-Gov
Christie- 46.2
Corzine-44.1
Daggett-8.3%
Other-2%
VA-Gov
McDonnell-59%
Deeds-41%
Maine Question 1-
No-51%
Yes-49%
CA-10
Since this doesn’t count, I’m gonna break from the crowd and make a totally outlandish prediction
Harmer-50.5
Garmendi-49.5
😛
NJ Gov
Corzine – 45.5
Christie – 45.0
Daggett – 9.5
This one comes down to the wire, but I’ll give Corzine a narrow victory simply because NJ is a blue state, and Corzine has Obama stumping for him.
NY-23
Owens – 49
Hoffman – 44
Scozzafava – 7
Owens wins, falling just short of fifty percent. I think Scozzafava’s endorsement will have some significance with many of the moderate voters that populate this district, and it drags Owens over the finish line.
VA Gov
McDonnell – 54
Deeds – 46
Deeds finishes stronger than expected but McDonnell still wins handily.
NY-23-Hoffman 54-44-2
NJ-Gov-Christie 49-44-7
VA-Gov-McDonnell 61-39
Maine Question 1-no 55-45
CA Congressional-Harmer 50.5% and Garamendi 49.5%
NYC Mayor- Bloomberg 72-28
ATL Mayor-Norwood 45-29-26 over Reed and Borders
Charlotte Mayor-54-46 Lassiter
NY 23
Owens: 47
Hoffman: 45
Scozzafava: 8
Down to the wire here, it all comes down to GOTV and where Scozzafava’s voters will go. I expect the teabaggers and Dems GOTV to be evenly matched here.
NJ Gov:
Corzine: 46
Christie: 45
Daggett: 9
Corzine eeks out a narrow victory, thanks to Daggett peeling away the anti Corzine vote from Christie. I wouldn’t doubt a recount here.
VA Gov:
McDonnell: 60
Deeds: 40
This race has been DOA since June. I expect the networks to call this race to be called for McDonnell before the returns start filtering in. McDonnell will edge out Deeds 52% to 48% in Nova. McDonnell crushes Deeds everywhere else throughout the state. The Democrat Renaissance in the Old Dominion comes to an end tomorrow night.
Maine Question 1:
Yes: 51
No: 49
I can’t recall any state rejecting a ban on same sex marriage from the poll booth. Sure this is Maine…but California’s pretty liberal right? And they still passed Prop 8.
NY-23:
Hoffman – 52%, Owens – 45%, Scozzafava – 6%, Other – 1%
NJ-Gov:
Christie – 43.5%, Corzine – 42%, Daggett – 8%, Other – 6.5%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 57%, Deeds – 42%, Other – 1%
Maine:
No/Gay Marriage – 52%, Yes/Repeal – 48%
NY-23:
Hoffman: 50
Owens: 45
Scoz: 5
NJ-Gov:
Christie: 47
Corzine: 44
Daggett: 9
VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 57
Deeds: 43
Maine:
Yes: 53
No: 47
I’m feeling pessimistic.
NY-23:
Hoffman 47%
Owens 46%
Scozzafava 7%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 10%
Others 2%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 43% (this race is probably going to be a disaster for us)
NYC-Mayor:
Bloomberg 60%
Thompson 40% (I’ll also go out on a limb and say that Thompson loses all five bouroughs, including the Bronx)
ME-Initiative
No 53%
Yes 47% (I’m betting that Mainers pleasently surprise us)
Ok
NY-23
Hoffman 50%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 5%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 51%
Christie 44%
Daggett 4%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 42%
Maine Question 1
Yes 44%
No 56%
Virginia:
McDonnell- 57%
Deeds – 43%
New Jersey:
Christie – 47%
Corzine – 45%
Dagget – 7%
New York 23:
Hoffman – 52%
Owens – 40%
Scozzafava – 8%
Maine Question 1:
Yes – 55% (ban gay marriage)
No – 45%
(Sorry but I don’t think that this one is going to be as close as people think…I live in Massachusetts and even here most people seem to oppose gay marriage).
NY-23
Hoffman 51%
Owens 42%
Scozoffavo 8%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
NJ-Gov
Christie 48%
Corzine 46%
Daggett 5%
Maine
Yes 53%
No 47%
I will expect that after this election, we will see a wave of Democratic retirement. I dont see how Democrats hold the House next year. It will be a miracle if they can.
NY-23:
Owens 45.1%
Hoffman: 45.0%
Dede:9.9%
Recount!
NJ:
Corzine: 44%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 13%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 56%
Deeds: 43%
Maine:
Yes(repeal): 52%
No(keep):48%
…A surprisingly good result in NJ is overshadowed by an ensuing in NY-23 recount and the overturn of gay marriage in New Jersey….
Now that I’m in NYC, I have slightly more incentive to try for some babka.
And probably fail miserably in the process.
NY-23: Owens 49, Scozzafava 6, Hoffman 45
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 44, Daggett 11
VA-Gov: Deeds 43, McDonnell 57
Maine Q1: Yes 48, No 52
Hoffman: 52
Owens: 44
Scozzafava: 4
Corzine: 46
Christie: 45
Daggett: 9
Maine Yes: 50.5
Maine No: 49.5
Deeds: 42
McDonnell: 58
NY-23:
Owens: 44
Hoffman: 48
Scozzafava: 8
NJ-Gov
Corzine: 42
Christie: 41
Daggett: 16
VA-Gov
McDonnell: 56
Deeds: 43
Maine:
Yes: 49.5
No: 50.5
NY-23 Hoffman 50
Owens 42
Scozzafava 8
NJ-Gov Corzine 45*
Christie 45
Daggett 9
VA-Gov McDonnell 57
Deeds 42
Maine No 51
Yes 49
NY 23 – Hoffman 47%, Owens 40%, DeDe 13%
NJ Gov – Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%
VA Gov – McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%
Maine – Yes 49%, No 51%
I’m not thrilled about these, especially the first three (and VA, where for once we have a candidate from the mountains, like my family), but I just don’t have a good feeling about them. I’ve tried not to be a Chicken Little, but I’m just not feeling it.
NY-23
Hoffman 46%
Owens 42%
Scozzafava beans 12%
Scozzafava captures a large amount of absentee votes.
NJ-gov
Corzine 47%
Christie 44%
Daggett 8%
The usual NJ race with the R leading but then fading and losing. A lot of Dagget supporters end up going with another candidate.
VA-Gov
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
The trend continues.
ME-init
Yes 51%
No 49%
Probably ends up in court.
I’m surprised so many are picking Christie.
NY-23: Hoffman 47.94%
Owens 46.72%
Scozzafava 5.34%
Scozzafava still being on the ballot makes all the difference.
NJ-Gov: Corzine 47.63%
Christie 43.35%
Daggett 9.02%
I think Christie has been damaged enough to encourage a last-minute defection of moderate Republicans to Daggett that will win the race for Corzine. No way the winner of this race breaks 50%, though.
VA-Gov: McDonnell 62.21%
Deeds 37.79%
Won’t even be close.
ME-Init: Yes 50.09%
No 49.91%
This one could really go either way, but based on demographics and all the cranky old homophobic ladies from Maine that I’ve known who are registered Democrats and will definitely be at the polls, I’m betting that gay marriage dies the most annoyingly narrow of deaths. Still, I could easily be wrong, and hope that I am.
Owens: 42
Scozzafava: 10
Hoffman: 48
Corzine: 45
Christie: 42
Daggett: 11
Deeds: 45
McDonnell: 55
Yes: 47
No: 53
Constantine wins in King County
but I really don’t feel comfortable making predictions under the circumstances. We all know what the polls say.
May the winner enjoy the babka!
Not original, 2 wins and 2 losses:
NY-23:
Hoffman: 47%
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 8%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 46%
Christie: 45%
Daggett: 9%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 57%
Deeds: 43%
Maine:
Yes: 49.5%
No: 50.5%
Bonus for Washington State:
Ref. 71:
Approve 55%
Reject: 45%
I-1033:
Yes: 45%
No: 55%
King County Exec:
Constantine: 55%
Hutchinson: 45%
Seattle Mayor:
Mallahan: 51%
McGinn: 49%
NY-23:
Owens: 48
Hoffman: 46
Scozzafava: 6
NJ-GOV:
Corzine: 45
Christie: 44
Daggett: 11
VA-GOV:
McDonnell: 54
Deeds: 45
CA-10:
Garamendi: 57
Harmer: 43
NY-Mayor
Bloomberg: 55
Thompson: 45
NY-23
Hoffman: 46%
Owens:44%
Scozzafava: 7%
NJ-Gov
Christie:45%
Corzine: 44%
Dagget: 11%
VA-Gov
McDonnel: 56%
Deeds: 42%
ME-1
No: 51%
Yes: 49%
Im that optimistic…. NY-23 will be a big race for 2010 at least and should be exciting, regardless.
NY-23
Owens: 46%
Hoffman: 49%
Scozzafava: 5%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 44%
Chrisie 43%
Daggett 9%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 44%
Maine
No 52%
Yes 48%
NY-23
Owens: 48.5
Hoffman: 47.5
Scozzafava: 4
NJ-Gov
Corzine: 45
Christie: 43
Dagget: 12
VA-Gov
Deeds: 42
McDonnel: 58
Maine Q1:
Yes: 46
No: 54
NJ-Gov
Christie 43%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 18%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
NY-23
Owens 46%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 9%
ME-Init. (ban gay marriage?)
Yes 51%
No 49%
Other predictions:
CA-10
Garamendi 57%
Harmer 43%
NJ Question 1 (take on bonded debt for open spaces?)
No 58%
Yes 42%
WA-Init. (repeal domestic partnerships law?)
Yes 52%
No 48%
OH Issue 3 (legalize casino gambling?)
Yes 61%
No 39%
NY-23: Owens 46%, Hoffman 43%, Scozzafava 11%
New Jersey: Corzine 45%, Christie 41%, Daggett 14%
Virginia: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 44%
Maine: Yes 51%, No 48%
I have my formula predictions for the governor races on my blog. I am going to do total guesses as to the House races and the Maine measure.
NY-23: Owens 46%, Hoffman 45%, Scozzafava 9%
CA-10: Garamendi 56%, Harmer 44%
New Jersey: Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%
Virginia: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 43%, write-ins 1%
Maine: No 51%, Yes 49%
NY-23
Owens 47
Hoffman 46
Scozzafava 7
NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 43
Daggett 12
VA
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43
ME
Yes 53
No 47
CA-10
Garamendi 56
Harmer 44
Riverside, CA mayor
Loveridge 54
Gage 46
NJ-Gov: The expected value for all previous predictions
Corzine: 45,11%
Christie: 44,14%
Dagget: 9,95%
Others: 0,80%
And i think the final results can be near this numbers. I hope too Corzine’s victory.
NY-23
Hoffman: 52%
Owens: 41%
Scozzafava: 7%
NJ Gov:
Christie: 48%
Corzine: 46%
Daggett: 6%
VA Gov:
McDonnell: 55%
Deeds: 45%
Maine Question 1:
Yes: 53%
No: 47%
Thank God we’ll finally have a third party member in Congress! This is what we need to get rid of the two-party system and turn America into a true democracy. More choices, more voices!
NY-23:
Owens: 47
Hoffman: 45
Scozzafava: 8
NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 47
Christie: 43
Daggett: 9
VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 56
Deeds: 44
ME Q1:
Yes: 49
No: 51
VA-Gov
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 43%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 45%
Christie 44%
Daggett 11%
NY-23
Hoffman 51%
Owens 40%
Scozzafava 9%
ME-Q1
No 53%
Yes 47%
NY-23: Hoffman 48, Owens 36, Scozzafava 16
NJ Gov: Christie 45, Corzine 41, Daggett 14
Va Gov: McConnell 54, Deeds 44, Others 2
ME Question 1: Yes 50.4, No 49.6
And by the way, I doubt if any of this has any implications whatsoever for 2010, unless you think every Democratic incumbent will be as unpopular as Corzine, every Democratic challenger will be as inept as Deeds, and every open Congressional district will be as historically Republican as NY-23. Indeed, I still see a 12-15 seat gain for Republicans in the U.S. House and anything from a -2 to +2 change in the U.S. Senate next year (it’s one thing to be less than thrilled with the Democrats in DC, another to give power back to the Republicans given their recent history).
I actually feel better about 2010 (where we should gain in Senate, have modest House losses, and perhaps win some big state Governor’s races) than today.
NY-23-
50% Hoffman
39% Owens
11% DeDe
NJ-Gov-
46% Christie
44% Corzine
6% Daggett
4% other
VA-Gov-
56% McDonnell
43% Deeds
1% other
MAINE
DON’T DISCRIMINATE: 50.1
DISCRIMINATE: 49.9
(I don’t get why this is so close. So ridiculous. Then again, I have heard that straight people have had to flee Massachusetts to salvage their marriages….)
CA-10
51% Garamendi
45% Harmer
4% other
NY-23: Hoffman 50, Owens 46, Scozzzzzzzzzafava 4
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 42, Daggett 11
VA-Gov: McDonnell 59, Deeds 41
ME-Q1: Yes 50%, No 50%
NY-23
Owens 40
Scozzafava 13
Hoffman 47
NJ-Gov
Corzine 44
Christie 44
Daggett 12
VA-Gov
Deeds 43
McDonnell 57
ME-Q1
Yes 49
No 51
NY-23:
Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)
Owens 46
Dede 7
NJ-Gov
Corzine 45 (wins)
Christie 45
Daggett 9
VA-Gov
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42
Maine Q1
No 50 (wins) (yay)
Yes 50
Needless to say, I’m betting on the next decimal place to count today!
Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let’s say he wins by 10 or under).
NY-23:
Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)
Owens 46
Dede 7
NJ-Gov
Corzine 45 (wins)
Christie 45
Daggett 9
VA-Gov
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42
Maine Q1
No 50 (wins) (yay)
Yes 50
Needless to say, I’m betting on the next decimal place to count today!
Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let’s say he wins by 10 or under).
New Jersey Governor
Christie: 45%
Corzine: 43%
Daggett: 9%
Virginia Governor
McDonnell: 57%
Deeds: 43%
Maine Question #1
No: 52%
Yes: 48%
NY-23
Owens: 49%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 5%
NY-23 Hoffman 51, Owen 43, Scozzafava 6
NJ-Gov Christie 47, Corzine 43 Daggett 6 (3% other)
VA-Gov McDonnell 57 Deeds 43
Maine Q1 No 52 Yes 48
Also think CA-10 might be VERY close.
NY-23:
Owens-45
Scozzafava-6
Hoffman-49
NJ-Gov:
Corzine-44.5
Christie-46
Daggett-9.5
VA-Gov:
McDonnell-56.5
Deeds-43.5
Maine Question 1:
Yes-47
No-53
NY-23:
Owens (D) – 47
Scozzafava (R) – 4
Hoffman (C) – 49
NJ-GOV:
Corzine (D) – 45
Christie (R) – 44
Daggett (I) – 11
VA-GOV:
Deeds (D) – 44
McDonnell (R) – 56
ME Q1:
Yes – 47
No – 53
VA-Gov
McDonnell 55.2%
Deeds 44.8%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 44.6%
Christie 42.7%
Daggett 10.1%
Other 2.6%
NY-23
Owens 47%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 7%
Also, fearing a squeaker in CA-10.
ME-Init.
No 52%
Yes 48%
NY-23: Owens 46
Scozzafva 6
Hoffman 48
(early GOP absentees keep DeDe above 5 percent)
Also, predict will not be called tonight with military absentees
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45
Christie 48
Daggett 7
(late Indie break and Daggett fall lets Sta-Puff slip past)
VA-Gov Deeds 44
McDonnell 56
(Organizing for America surge voter contact and GOP overconfidence cuts margin)
Maine Q 1: YES 54
NO 46
(always runs stronger than polls, though counter-intuitive approach of YES for No Gay Marriage may reduce YES votes)
NY-23
Hoffman 48
Owens 40
Scozzofava 12
NJ-GOV
Christie 48
Corzine 47
Daggett 5
VA-GOV
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43
Maine Question 1
Yes 51
No 49
CA-10
Garamendi 54
Harmer 44
Other 2
Washington R-71
Yes 56
No 44
NY-Mayor
Bloomberg 58
Thompson 42
NY-23:
Hoffman – 48%
Owens – 47%
Scozzafava – 5%
NJ-Gov:
Corzine – 44%
Christie – 43%
Daggett – 13%
VA-Gov:
McDonnell – 57%
Deeds – 42%
Maine Question 1:
“Yes” – 51%
“No” – 49%
NY 23rd
Hoffman 48%
Owens 47%
Scossovava 5%
NJ Governor
Corzine 45%
Christie 44%
Dagget 11%
Virginia Governor
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
Maine Gay Marriage
No 52%
Yes 48%
NY-23:
Scozzafava – 8%
Owens – 40%
Hoffman – 52%
NJ-Gov:
Daggett – 17%
Corzine – 42%
Christie – 41%
VA-Gov:
Deeds – 46
McDonnell – 54
Maine:
Yes – 48
No – 52
NY-23:
Owens 47
Hoffman 46
Scozzafava 7
NJ-Gov
Corzine 45
Christie 43
Daggett 10
VA- Gov
McDonnell 56
Deeds 43
ME – Q1
Yes 47
No 53
I think Corzine’s GOTV might be enough and I’m hanging my hat on Monmouth but I’ve been burned in the past by ignoring polls in favor of organization. So I’m thinking agonizingly close but not close enough in the two marquees. Recounts would help dull the blow in the media.
Maine Q1: 51-49 No
VA-Gov: 57-43 McDonnell
NJ-Gov: 46-45-9 Christie
NY-23: 48-47-5 Hoffman
57-43 Garamendi
57-43 Bloomberg
51-49 Foxx
NY-23: Owens 46 Hoffman 49 Scozzafava 5
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45 Christie 44 Daggett 11
VA-Gov: Deeds 43 McDonnell 57
Maine: Yes 52 No 48
NY 23 Owens 47 Hoffman 46 Scozzafava 5
NJ Corzine 43 Christie 43 (corzine wins) Daggett 14
VA McDonnell 54 Deeds 46
ME ? 1 No 51 yes 49
Hoffman 48 / Owens 39 / Dede 13
Christie 46 / Corzine 40 / Daggett 13 / Others 1
McDonnell 55 / Deeds 45
You can tell first time posters party affiliation just by their predictions! 🙂
VA-Gov:
56% Mcdonnell
44% Deeds
NJ-Gov:
Corzine 45%
Christie 44%
Daggett 8%
Others take the rest
NY-23
Owens 47%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 8%
Maine Question 1:
No 50%
Yes 50%
NY-23 (I have NO idea what’ll happen here):
Hoffman – 48% (win)
Owens – 48%
Scozzafava – 4%
NJ-Gov (Daggett does reasonably well, pushes Corzine over the finish line):
Corzine – 45%
Christie – 43%
Daggett – 12%
VA-Gov (if this isn’t called within 30 mins of polls closing, I’ll be shocked):
McDonnell – 58%
Deeds – 42%
Maine Question 1 (a refreshingly comfortable margin for the good gays):
“Yes” – 46%
“No” – 54%
NY 23
Owens 47
Hoffman 44
Dede 9
NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 44
Daggett 11
Va
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
Question 1
No 52
Yes 48
so i’m gonna get hopeful – why? – because i want to:
NY -23
Owens 45.5
Hoffman 45.2
Scoz 8
NJ
Corzine 43.5
Christie 42.5
Daggett 13
Other 1
VA
McDonnell 58
Deeds 41
Maine
Yes 50.1
No 49.9
And I’ll just take a maple iced donut.
VA:
McDonnell: 58
Deeds: 41
NJ:
Christie: 47
Corzine: 46
Daggett: 6
NY-23:
Hoffman: 50
Owens: 44
Scozzafava: 6
Maine:
Yes: 52
No: 48
——
Charlotte Mayor:
Lassister: 52
Foxx: 48
NY-23
Hoffman 49
Owens 47
Scozzafava 4
NJ-Gov
Corzine 46
Christie 45
Daggett 9
VA-Gov
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
Maine Question 1
No 52
Yes 48
NY-23
Hoffman 48.1%
Owens 43.9%
Scozzafava 7.2%
NJ-Gov
Corzine 45.3%
Christie 45.2%
Daggett 7.3%
VA-Gov
McDonnell 56.9%
Deeds 41.1%
Maine Question 1
No 50.3%
Yes 49.7%
NY-23: Owens 47%, Scozzafava 7%, and Hoffman 46%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%
VA-Gov: Deeds 45% and McDonnell 54%
NY 23: Hoffman 48, Owens 47, Scozzafava 5
NJ GOV: Corzine 47, Christie 42, Daggett 11
VA GOV: McDonnell 59, Deeds 40
Maine Question 1: NO! 51, yes 49
Election prediction thread
NY 23rd:
Owens: 42%
Hoffman: 41%
Scozzafava: 7%
NJ-Gov
Corzine: 44%
Christie 43%
Dagget: 13%
VA-Gov:
Deeds: 42%
McDonell: 58%
Main Question #1:
No 51%
Yes 49%
NY-23
Owens: 47%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 7%
NJ-Gov
Corzine: 46%
Christie: 44%
Daggett: 10%
VA-Gov
McDonnell: 55%
Deeds: 45%
Maine Question 1
Yes: 47%
No: 53%
• NY-23 – Owens 47%, Scozzafava 8%, and Hoffman 45%
• NJ-Gov – Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%
• VA-Gov – Deeds 44% and McDonnell 56%
• Maine Question 1 – yes 48% and no 52%