Election 2009 Predictions Contest

Let’s get ready to rumble! Swing State Project is offering up its usual grand prize — delicious chocolate babka, courtesy of DavidNYC — for the swingnut who comes closest to picking the outcomes of the four big elections tomorrow. We’ll need you to give the percentages for each option in each of the following races; just post them in the comments:

NY-23 (Owens, Scozzafava, and Hoffman) (and yes, we know Scozzafava is officially out, but you still need to guess what percentage of people still vote for her!)

NJ-Gov (Corzine, Christie, and Daggett)

VA-Gov (Deeds and McDonnell)

Maine Question 1: (yes and no)

The person with the net closest answers wins. Of course, there’s lots more going on tomorrow, so feel free to offer your predictions on CA-10, Washington’s R-71, New York mayor, Boston mayor, Atlanta mayor, Charlotte mayor, or anything else your heart desires — you just won’t get extra credit for it. The contest closes at 7 pm Eastern/4 pm Pacific tomorrow, as Virginia’s polls close.

UPDATE (7pm, 11/3): The contest is now closed!

174 thoughts on “Election 2009 Predictions Contest”

  1. • NY-23 – Owens 48%, Scozzafava 6%, and Hoffman 46%

    • NJ-Gov  – Corzine 46% Christie 45% and Daggett 9%

    • VA-Gov – Deeds 44% and McDonnell 55%

    • Maine Question 1 – yes 47% and no 53%  

  2. NY23: Hoffman 54

               Owens: 40

               Scozzafava: 6

    NJ-GOV: Christie 45

                    Corzine: 42

                    Daggett: 8

    VA-Gov: McDonnell: 57

                   Deeds: 42

    Maine: Discriminate: 51

                Oppose Discrimination: 49

  3. NY-23:

    Hoffman – 48%

    Owens – 46%

    Scozzafava – 6%

    NJ-Gov:

    Christie – 46%

    Corzine – 45%

    Daggett – 9%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 59%

    Deeds – 41%

    Maine Question 1:

    “No” – 52%

    “Yes” – 48%

  4. NY-23:

    Owens – 48%

    Hoffman – 46%

    Scozzafava – 6%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 46%

    Christie – 46%

    Daggett – 8%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 59%

    Deeds – 41%

    Maine Question 1:

    “Yes” – 52%

    “No” – 48%

  5. But I will try my hand anyway

    NY-23:

    Owens – 47% (win)

    Hoffman – 47%

    Scozzafava – 6%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 48%

    Christie – 47%

    Daggett – 5%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 54%

    Deeds – 46%

    Maine Question 1:

    “Yes” – 49%

    “No” – 51%

  6. Hoffman 49

    Owens   46

    Dede     5

    (Had we had another two weeks, this would have been different)

    Christie 44 (win)

    Corzine  44

    Daggett  12

    (Shades of 1993 with Whitman-Florio)

    McDonnell 58

    Deeds     41

    (McDonnell narrowly wins Northern Virginia)

    pro-equality (No)  51

    pro-bigotry  (Yes) 49

    Bonus (close to home for me):

    Conservative Republican Mark Czjakowski pulls off a huge upset and defeats liberal Democrat (who is gay) Mark Kleinschmidt 51-49 for mayor of Chapel Hill.

     

  7. NY-23….Hoffman 48, Owens 42, Scozzofava 8

    NJ-Gov….Christie 46, Corzine 41, Daggett 10

    VA-Gov….McDonnell 58, Deeds 41

    Maine….Discrimation 53, Nondiscrimination 47

    And I don’t know the candidate names in CA-10, but I’m predicting a weak three-point Dem margin.

  8. Perhaps a bit too optimistic, but oh well.  Hopefully I’ll be correct.

    NY-23: Owens: 47.3%; Hoffman: 46.7%; Scozzafava: 6%

    NJ-Gov: Corzine: 46%; Christie: 43%; Daggett: 11%

    VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56%; Deeds: 44%

    ME 1: No: 52%; Yes: 48%

    And, for fun:

    NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg: 55%; Thompson: 43%; Others: 2%

    WA 71: Yes: 54%; No: 46%

    Charlotte-Mayor: Lassiter: 53%; Foxx: 47%

  9. Virginia

    McDonnel 56%

    Deeds 43%

    McDonnell absolutely crushes in the Hampton Roads (wins Virginia Beach with about 63% of the vote) and loses in Northern Virginia but carries Prince William and Loudon Counties by about 10 points.

    Maine Question 1

    Equal rights 52%

    Anti Equal rights 48%

    There seems to be an extremely large amount of volunteers for the no side. I heard that some people who planned to vote no were complaining about too many people calling them to remind them to vote.

    NJ Governor

    Corzine 45%

    Christie 43%

    For more info on my opinion about this race, you should check out my recent diary. It should still be up.

    NY-23

    Hoffman 49%

    Owens 44%

    Scoffaza 7%

    Owens will begin an upward climb but it should not be enough. Hoffman should probably lose in 2010 once a Republican runs for the seat and splits the vote with Hoffman.

    CA-10

    Garamendi 55%

    Karmer 45%

    Washington Domestic Partnership inititive

    I have not seen much polling there but the pro domestic partnership side should win.  

  10. NY -23

    Hoffman  49

    Owens    43

    Scoz      8

    NJ

    Christie  45

    Corzine   43

    Daggett   11

    Other      1

    VA

    McDonnell  58

    Deeds      41

    Maine

    Yes        53

    No         47      

  11. NY-23

    Hoffman 48%

    Owens 44%

    Scozzafava 6%

    Other 2%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 44%

    Christie 42%

    Daggett 10%

    Other 4%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 54%

    Deeds 45%

    Other 1%

    ME-Gay Marriage

    Yes 51%

    No 49%

    CA-10

    Garamendi 54%

    Harmer 44%

    Other 2%

    NY-Mayor

    Bloomberg 56%

    Thompson 42%

    Other 2%

  12. NY-23 – Hoffman 48%; Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%;

    NJ-Gov  – Corzine 43% Christie 42% and Daggett 15%;

    VA-Gov – McDonnell 56%; Deeds 44%  

    Maine Question 1 – yes 50% and no 49%.

    We will win CA-10 54-46.

  13. NY-23:

    Owens – 46%

    Hoffman – 43%

    Scozzafava – 9%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 47%

    Christie – 44%

    Daggett – 8%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 54%

    Deeds – 45%

    Maine Question 1:

    “No” – 51%

    “Yes” – 49%

  14. NY-23:

    Owens 48%

    Hoffman 47%

    Scozzafava 5%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine 46%

    Christie 45%

    Daggett 9%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 56%

    Deeds 44%

    Maine Question 1:

    No 52%

    Yes 48%

    NY-23 and NJ-Gov will be really tight; I didn’t want to get into decimals, so there’s an estimate.

  15. And it is a strategic decision on my part (if I was betting money on each of these outcomes, I am guessing we do better than I am projecting here).

    The strategy here is the same reason I pick USC in any football office pool, even though I am a loyal UCLA fan. I get some tangible benefit, not matter which way it turns out…

    In this case, if I guess wrong, I’ll be happy because Democrats did well. If I guess right, I have a shot at the chocolate babka. Win-win!!

    NY-23: Hoffman 52, Owens 41, Scozzafava 7

    NJ-Gov: Christie 46, Corzine 44, Daggett/Otros 10

    VA-Gov: McDonnell 57, Deeds 43

    Question 1: Yes 51, No 49

  16. NY-23:

    Owens – 48%

    Hoffman – 43%

    Scozzafava – 9%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 43%

    Christie – 42%

    Daggett – 14%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 57%

    Deeds – 41%

    Maine 1:

    For gay marriage – 54%

    Against gay marriage – 46%

  17. NJ:

    Corzine-44

    Christie-42

    Daggett-12

    VA:

    McDonnell-56

    Deeds-42

    NY-23:

    Hoffman-47

    Owens-42

    Scozzafava-7

    Maine:

    No-52

    Yes-48

  18. I have returned from Thursday in my time capsule to report as follows:

    NY-23

    Owens 47

    Hoffman 46

    Scozzafava 7

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 44

    Christie 42

    Daggett 12

    Others 2 (the biggest surprise of the night)

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 55

    Deeds 45 (he slightly overperforms as Dem turnout is slightly better than expected)

    ME-Gay marriage referendum

    No 51 (gay marriage survives)

    Yes 49

    Bonus races:

    VA-LG

    Bolling 53

    Wagner 47

    VA-AG

    Cuccinelli 54

    Shannon 46

    VA-House

    GOP net plus-2

    NJ-Assembly

    GOP net plus-2

  19. New York:

    Hoffmann 49%

    Owens 40%

    Scozzafava 10%

    Jersey

    Corzine 46%

    Christie 43%

    Daggett 11%

    Virginia

    McDonnell 56%

    Deeds 43%

    Maine

    No 50%

    Yes 49%

    Lassiter and Kleinschmidt win by <4 in Charlotte and Chapel Hill

  20. NY-23

    Owens:     49%

    Hoffman:   46%

    Scozzafava: 5%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine    47%

    Chrisie    44%

    Daggett     9%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell  54%

    Deeds      45%

    Maine (where no means yes to marriage equality)

    No         52%

    Yes        48%

  21. I hope I’m wrong on all of my predictions that aren’t New Jersey:

    NY-23:

    There is a 40% chance of rain in most of the district. Hoffman’s base of old people will show up to vote in the morning before the possible rain. Tea baggers will show up even if there is a tornado because they believe every lie about Obama. The Scozzafava endorsement of Owens will not be much of a factor because most voters will view it as sour grapes.

    54% Hoffman

    38% Owens

    8% Dede

    NJ-Gov:

    New Jersey voters are too embarrassed to admit that they are voting for Corzine, so they are telling the pollsters that they are either undecided or Daggett voters. Some Corzine voters however will stay home even in the nice weather because they don’t approve of Corzine. Expect a close election where Corzine wins and Daggett underperforms the polls.

    49% Corzine

    45% Christie

    6% Daggett

    Va-Gov:

    How low can Deeds go?

    38% Deeds

    62% McDonnell

    Maine Question 1:

    Those opposed to Gay Marriage are the most likely to vote.

    54% Yes

    46% No

  22. NY-23: 48 Owens, 47 Hoffman, 5 Scozzafava

    NJ-Gov: 47 Corzine, 46 Christie, 7 Daggett

    VA-Gov: 58 McDonnell, 42 Deeds

    Maine Question 1: 50.4 No, 49.6 Yes

  23. Scozzafava 6

    Hoffman 49

    Owens 45

    Corzine 45

    Daggett 12

    Christie 43

    Deeds 41

    McDonnell 59

    Maine No 53

    Yes 47

    First time poster, long time reader

  24. NY-23:

    47% Owens

    46% Hoffman

    7% Scozzy

    VA-Gov:

    55% McDonnell

    44% Deeds

    1% Other

    NJ-Gov:

    45.7% Corzine

    45.5% Christie

    9.8% Daggett

    CA-10:

    57% Garamendi

    42% Harmer

    1% Other

    ME-Init 1:

    No: 51%

    Yes: 49%

  25. Hoffman 49

    Owens   45

    Dede     6

    Christie 46

    Corzine  45

    Daggett   9

    McDonnell 58    

    Deeds     42

    Yes      49

    No       51

    Garamendi 54

    Repub     46

  26. Bob McDonnell – 56.3

    Creigh Deeds – 43.6

    Chris Christie – 46.1

    Jon Corzine – 44.5

    Chris Daggett – 7.8

    Other – 1.6

    Doug Hoffman – 48.8

    Bill Owens – 45.0

    Dede Scozzafava – 6.2

    Yes – 49.5

    No – 50.5

  27. NY-23

    49% Hoffman

    48% Owens

    3% Scozzafava

    NJ-Gov

    46% Corzine

    45% Christie

    8%  Daggett

    VA-GOV

    56% McDonnell

    44% Deeds

    Maine Question 1

    50% No (Margin of victory less than 2,000 votes)

    50% Yes

    Charlotte Mayor

    (likely recount)

    50% Foxx

    50% Lassiter

    Boston Mayor

    65% Menino

    35% Flaherty

    NYC

    56% Bloomberg

    40% Thompson

    CA-10

    58% Garamendi

    39% Harmer

  28. NJ Gov

    Corzine 44%

    Corrupt McFraud 42%

    Daggett 14%

    NY-23

    Wingnut 46%

    Owens: 43%

    Scozafazza: 8%

    Question 1

    No: 56%

    Anti-marriage homophobes: 44%

    VA-Gov

    Misogynist hack: 56%

    Deeds: 41%

    CA-10

    Garamendi: 58%

    Harmer: 39%

  29. VA

    NcDonnell – 58%

    Deeds –     42%

    NJ

    Corzine – 46%

    Christie -45%

    Daggett –  9%

    NY-23

    Owens – 47%

    Hoffman-46%

    Scozz –  7%

    ME

    Yes – 49%

    No –  51%

  30. VA: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 42%, other 2%.  Further prediction: McDonnell gives GOP response to Obama’s 2010 State of the Union.

    NJ: Corzine 45%, Cristie 44%, Dagget 7%, other 4%.

    NY-23: Hoffman 48%, Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%

    ME- Yes 52%, No 48%

  31. 47.0% Corzine

    44.8% Christie

    8% Daggett

    Bob Mcdonnell 55%

    Creigh Deeds  44.6%

    Maine

    Yes(against equal rights)50.2%

    No(for equal rights)49.8%

    After recount:

    No 50.1%

    Yes 49.9%

    NY-23

    Hoffman 49%

    Owens 47%

    Scozzafava 4.2%

  32. Babka is not the reason for living, good humas is.

    😛

    Anyway, here is the illustrious ArkDem’s predictions, though I have never been stunningly accurate.

    NJ GOV

    Corzine 43%

    Christie 41%

    Daggett 16%

    VA-GOV

    McDonnell 53%

    Deeds 47%

    NY-23:

    What the heck, I can’t stand Hoffman, any idiot who sits around blowing shallow cliched platitudes out of his ass to appeal to ignorant people, like most of the Republican party actually, doesn’t deserve to win a moderate New England district, he still might.

    Owens 50%

    Hoffman 44%

    Scozzafava 6%

    Maine Marriage Amendment:

    Yes 48%

    No 52%

  33. VA-Gov:

    McDonnell 55%

    Deeds 45%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine 49%

    Christie 46%

    Daggett 5%

    NY-23:

    Owens 50%

    Hoffman 40%

    Scozzafava 10%

    ME Question 1:

    No 52%

    Yes 48%

  34. NY-23

    Owens – 50

    Scozzafava – 9

    Hoffman – 40

    I am prepared to be wrong. Or gloriously right.

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine – 44

    Christie – 47

    Daggett – 6

    Although Corzine very slightly outperforms his polls, Daggett drops and some of his voters go to Christie.

    VA-Gov

    Deeds – 39

    McDonnell – 60

    Deeds does not just lose, but loses very badly.

    Maine Question 1

    Yes – 46

    No – 54

    The consensus seems to be that this will be close. One way or another, it won’t be. One side or another will have an intensity gap. While normally with Gay Marriage it is the anti side that is more inclined, this time it is surprisingly the pro side that is motivated to vote.

    All in all, a mixed bag. Disappointing for Dems in the Governorships, but good in NY-23 and ME.

  35. NY-23: Owens 49%, Hoffman 48%, Scozzafava 3%

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 45%, Christie 44%, Daggett 11%

    VA-Gov: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%

    Maine Question 1: Yes 49%, No 51%

    Additional prediction: If Democrats learn anything from Tuesday, Kaine will be out as DNC Chair by the end of the year.

    http://notlarrysabato.typepad….

  36. to the sweet, delicious Babka before.  I want that Babka!!!

    Here goes:

    Hoffman 50

    Owens 44

    Scozzafava 6

    Corzine  45

    Christie 44

    Daggett  10

    McDonnell 57

    Deeds 43

    No  52

    Yes 48

  37. NY23: Hoffman 47

              Owens: 42

              Scozzafava:11

    NJ-GOV: Christie 37

                   Corzine: 41

                   Daggett: 22

    VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56

                  Deeds: 444

    Maine: Discriminate: 47

               Oppose Discrimination: 53

  38. NY-23:

    Owens – 43%

    Hoffman – 47%

    Scozzafava – 5%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 46%

    Christie – 44%

    Daggett – 10%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 56%

    Deeds – 43%

    Maine Question 1:

    “Yes” – 49.8%

    “No” – 50.2%

  39. I’m going to skip it to watch these results. I’m going to need a drink by the end of the night.

    VA-GOV (Blowout)

    McDonnell (R) – 57%

    Deeds (D) – 43%

    Bonus, Dems lose NET 6 state house seats

    NJ-GOV (The bright spot due to better GOTV machine)

    Corzine (D) – 47%

    Christie (R) – 45%

    Daggett (I) – 8%%

    Bonus, Dems lose NET 2 state house seats

    NY-23 (Needed more time on the clock)

    Hoffman (C) – 49%

    Owens (D) – 46%

    Scozz (R) – 5%

    ME-INT (California Redux)

    Yes (Discriminate) – 50.2%

    No (Freedom) – 49.8%

    HOUSTON – Mayor

    Parker gets first (mid 30s%), Brown gets second by 2% over Locke (mid 20s%). the lone Republican, Morales, finishes distant fourth (15%).

  40. I doubt I’ll get close, but hey….guessing is fun!

    NY-23:

    Owens: 46%

    Hoffman: 44%

    Dede: 8%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine: 42%

    Christie: 41%

    Daggett: 14%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell: 53%

    Deeds: 44%

    Maine Q1:

    Yes/No – exactly tied percentage-wise (50-50) but Maine keeps gay marriage by less than 1% of votes.

  41. so I’m going to be a little more pessimistic tonight on some races.

    NY-23: Hoffman 49.3%, Owens 46.7%, Dede 4%

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 46.5%, Christie 44.5%, Daggett 9%

    VA-Gov: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44%

    Maine Question 1: No 50.8%, Yes 49.2%

  42. OK, been a huge fan of the site, just now registered for a chance at food. NY-23 Owens 49 Scozzafava 3 Hoffman 48 NJ-Gov Corzine 47 Daggett 7 Christie 46 VA-Gov McD 59 Deeds 41 (this being the two-way vote; I think other, no matter who it is, will get a couple of points) Maine Q1 Reject gay marriage (Yes) 46 Good Guys (No) 54 Bonii: No changes to Republican in the NJ state Assembly. Washington races (thank you, The Stranger): Constantine wins, McGinn wins (in what would be a squeaker if it weren't all announced at the same time), gay rights win with R-71.

  43. NY-23

    Hoffman-51%

    Owens-46%

    Scozzafava-3%

    NJ-Gov

    Christie- 46.2

    Corzine-44.1

    Daggett-8.3%

    Other-2%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell-59%

    Deeds-41%

    Maine Question 1-

    No-51%

    Yes-49%

    CA-10

    Since this doesn’t count, I’m gonna break from the crowd and make a totally outlandish prediction

    Harmer-50.5

    Garmendi-49.5

    😛

  44. NJ Gov

    Corzine – 45.5

    Christie – 45.0

    Daggett – 9.5

    This one comes down to the wire, but I’ll give Corzine a narrow victory simply because NJ is a blue state, and Corzine has Obama stumping for him.

    NY-23

    Owens – 49

    Hoffman – 44

    Scozzafava – 7

    Owens wins, falling just short of fifty percent. I think Scozzafava’s endorsement will have some significance with many of the moderate voters that populate this district, and it drags Owens over the finish line.

    VA Gov

    McDonnell – 54

    Deeds – 46

    Deeds finishes stronger than expected but McDonnell still wins handily.

  45. NY-23-Hoffman 54-44-2

    NJ-Gov-Christie 49-44-7

    VA-Gov-McDonnell 61-39

    Maine Question 1-no 55-45

    CA Congressional-Harmer 50.5% and Garamendi 49.5%

    NYC Mayor- Bloomberg 72-28

    ATL Mayor-Norwood 45-29-26 over Reed and Borders

    Charlotte Mayor-54-46 Lassiter

  46. NY 23

    Owens: 47

    Hoffman: 45

    Scozzafava: 8

    Down to the wire here, it all comes down to GOTV and where Scozzafava’s voters will go. I expect the teabaggers and Dems GOTV to be evenly matched here.

    NJ Gov:

    Corzine: 46

    Christie: 45

    Daggett: 9

    Corzine eeks out a narrow victory, thanks to Daggett peeling away the anti Corzine vote from Christie. I wouldn’t doubt a recount here.

    VA Gov:

    McDonnell: 60

    Deeds: 40

    This race has been DOA since June. I expect the networks to call this race to be called for McDonnell before the returns start filtering in. McDonnell will edge out Deeds 52% to 48% in Nova. McDonnell crushes Deeds everywhere else throughout the state. The Democrat Renaissance in the Old Dominion comes to an end tomorrow night.

    Maine Question 1:

    Yes: 51

    No: 49

    I can’t recall any state rejecting a ban on same sex marriage from the poll booth. Sure this is Maine…but California’s pretty liberal right? And they still passed Prop 8.  

  47. NY-23:

    Hoffman – 52%, Owens – 45%, Scozzafava – 6%, Other – 1%

    NJ-Gov:

    Christie – 43.5%, Corzine – 42%, Daggett – 8%, Other – 6.5%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 57%, Deeds – 42%, Other – 1%

    Maine:

    No/Gay Marriage – 52%, Yes/Repeal – 48%

  48. NY-23:

    Hoffman: 50

    Owens:   45

    Scoz:     5

    NJ-Gov:

    Christie: 47

    Corzine:  44

    Daggett:   9

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell: 57

    Deeds:     43

    Maine:

    Yes: 53

    No:  47

    I’m feeling pessimistic.

  49. NY-23:

    Hoffman 47%

    Owens 46%

    Scozzafava 7%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine 45%

    Christie 43%

    Daggett 10%

    Others 2%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell 57%

    Deeds 43% (this race is probably going to be a disaster for us)

    NYC-Mayor:

    Bloomberg 60%

    Thompson 40% (I’ll also go out on a limb and say that Thompson loses all five bouroughs, including the Bronx)

    ME-Initiative

    No 53%

    Yes 47% (I’m betting that Mainers pleasently surprise us)

  50. Ok

    NY-23

    Hoffman 50%

    Owens 44%

    Scozzafava 5%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 51%

    Christie 44%

    Daggett 4%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 56%

    Deeds 42%

    Maine Question 1

    Yes 44%

    No 56%

  51. Virginia:

    McDonnell- 57%

    Deeds –        43%

    New Jersey:

    Christie – 47%

    Corzine – 45%

    Dagget –  7%

    New York 23:

    Hoffman –     52%

    Owens –         40%

    Scozzafava – 8%

    Maine Question 1:

    Yes – 55% (ban gay marriage)

    No –  45%

    (Sorry but I don’t think that this one is going to be as close as people think…I live in Massachusetts and even here most people seem to oppose gay marriage).

  52. NY-23

    Hoffman 51%

    Owens 42%

    Scozoffavo 8%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 57%

    Deeds 42%

    NJ-Gov

    Christie 48%

    Corzine 46%

    Daggett 5%

    Maine

    Yes 53%

    No 47%

    I will expect that after this election, we will see a wave of Democratic retirement.  I dont see how Democrats hold the House next year.  It will be a miracle if they can.  

  53. NY-23:

    Owens 45.1%

    Hoffman: 45.0%

    Dede:9.9%

    Recount!

    NJ:

    Corzine: 44%

    Christie: 41%

    Daggett: 13%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell: 56%

    Deeds: 43%

    Maine:

    Yes(repeal): 52%

    No(keep):48%

    …A surprisingly good result in NJ is overshadowed by an ensuing in NY-23 recount and the overturn of gay marriage in New Jersey….

  54. Now that I’m in NYC, I have slightly more incentive to try for some babka.

    And probably fail miserably in the process.

    NY-23: Owens 49, Scozzafava 6, Hoffman 45

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 44, Daggett 11

    VA-Gov: Deeds 43, McDonnell 57

    Maine Q1: Yes 48, No 52

  55. NY-23:

    Owens: 44

    Hoffman: 48

    Scozzafava: 8

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine: 42

    Christie: 41

    Daggett: 16

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell: 56

    Deeds: 43

    Maine:

    Yes: 49.5

    No: 50.5

  56. NY-23 Hoffman 50

         Owens 42

         Scozzafava 8

    NJ-Gov Corzine 45*

          Christie 45

          Daggett 9

    VA-Gov McDonnell 57

          Deeds 42

    Maine  No 51

          Yes 49

  57. NY 23 – Hoffman 47%, Owens 40%, DeDe 13%

    NJ Gov – Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%

    VA Gov – McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%

    Maine – Yes 49%, No 51%

    I’m not thrilled about these, especially the first three (and VA, where for once we have a candidate from the mountains, like my family), but I just don’t have a good feeling about them.  I’ve tried not to be a Chicken Little, but I’m just not feeling it.

  58. NY-23

    Hoffman 46%

    Owens 42%

    Scozzafava beans 12%

    Scozzafava captures a large amount of absentee votes.

    NJ-gov

    Corzine 47%

    Christie 44%

    Daggett 8%

    The usual NJ race with the R leading but then fading and losing. A lot of Dagget supporters end up going with another candidate.

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 57%

    Deeds 42%

    The trend continues.

    ME-init

    Yes 51%

    No 49%

    Probably ends up in court.

  59. NY-23: Hoffman 47.94%

          Owens 46.72%

          Scozzafava 5.34%

    Scozzafava still being on the ballot makes all the difference.

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 47.63%

           Christie 43.35%

           Daggett 9.02%

    I think Christie has been damaged enough to encourage a last-minute defection of moderate Republicans to Daggett that will win the race for Corzine. No way the winner of this race breaks 50%, though.

    VA-Gov: McDonnell 62.21%

           Deeds 37.79%

    Won’t even be close.  

    ME-Init: Yes 50.09%

            No  49.91%

    This one could really go either way, but based on demographics and all the cranky old homophobic ladies from Maine that I’ve known who are registered Democrats and will definitely be at the polls, I’m betting that gay marriage dies the most annoyingly narrow of deaths. Still, I could easily be wrong, and hope that I am.  

  60. Owens: 42

    Scozzafava: 10

    Hoffman: 48

    Corzine: 45

    Christie: 42

    Daggett: 11

    Deeds: 45

    McDonnell: 55

    Yes: 47

    No: 53

    Constantine wins in King County

  61. but I really don’t feel comfortable making predictions under the circumstances. We all know what the polls say.

    May the winner enjoy the babka!  

  62. Not original, 2 wins and 2 losses:

    NY-23:

    Hoffman: 47%

    Owens: 45%

    Scozzafava: 8%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine: 46%

    Christie: 45%

    Daggett:  9%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell:  57%

    Deeds: 43%

    Maine:

    Yes: 49.5%

    No:  50.5%

    Bonus for Washington State:

    Ref. 71:

    Approve 55%

    Reject: 45%

    I-1033:

    Yes: 45%

    No: 55%

    King County Exec:

    Constantine: 55%

    Hutchinson:  45%

    Seattle Mayor:

    Mallahan: 51%

    McGinn:  49%

  63. NY-23:

    Owens: 48

    Hoffman: 46

    Scozzafava: 6

    NJ-GOV:

    Corzine: 45

    Christie: 44

    Daggett: 11

    VA-GOV:

    McDonnell: 54

    Deeds: 45

    CA-10:

    Garamendi: 57

    Harmer: 43

    NY-Mayor

    Bloomberg: 55

    Thompson: 45

  64. NY-23

    Hoffman: 46%

    Owens:44%

    Scozzafava: 7%

    NJ-Gov

    Christie:45%

    Corzine: 44%

    Dagget: 11%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnel: 56%

    Deeds: 42%

    ME-1

    No: 51%

    Yes: 49%

    Im that optimistic….  NY-23 will be a big race for 2010 at least and should be exciting, regardless.  

  65. NY-23

    Owens:     46%

    Hoffman:   49%

    Scozzafava: 5%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine    44%

    Chrisie    43%

    Daggett    9%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell  55%

    Deeds      44%

    Maine  

    No         52%

    Yes        48%

  66. NJ-Gov

    Christie 43%

    Corzine 39%

    Daggett 18%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 56%

    Deeds 44%

    NY-23

    Owens 46%

    Hoffman 45%

    Scozzafava 9%

    ME-Init. (ban gay marriage?)

    Yes 51%

    No 49%

    Other predictions:

    CA-10

    Garamendi 57%

    Harmer 43%

    NJ Question 1 (take on bonded debt for open spaces?)

    No 58%

    Yes 42%

    WA-Init. (repeal domestic partnerships law?)

    Yes 52%

    No 48%

    OH Issue 3 (legalize casino gambling?)

    Yes 61%

    No 39%

  67. NY-23:  Owens 46%, Hoffman 43%, Scozzafava 11%

    New Jersey:  Corzine 45%, Christie 41%, Daggett 14%

    Virginia: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 44%

    Maine: Yes 51%, No 48%

  68. I have my formula predictions for the governor races on my blog. I am going to do total guesses as to the House races and the Maine measure.

    NY-23: Owens 46%, Hoffman 45%, Scozzafava 9%

    CA-10: Garamendi 56%, Harmer 44%

    New Jersey: Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%

    Virginia: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 43%, write-ins 1%

    Maine: No 51%, Yes 49%

  69. NY-23

    Owens 47

    Hoffman 46

    Scozzafava 7

    NJ

    Corzine 45

    Christie 43

    Daggett 12

    VA

    McDonnell 57

    Deeds 43

    ME

    Yes 53

    No 47

    CA-10

    Garamendi 56

    Harmer 44

    Riverside, CA mayor

    Loveridge 54

    Gage 46

  70. NJ-Gov: The expected value for all previous predictions

    Corzine: 45,11%

    Christie: 44,14%

    Dagget: 9,95%

    Others: 0,80%

    And i think the final results can be near this numbers. I hope too Corzine’s victory.

  71. NY-23

    Hoffman: 52%

    Owens: 41%

    Scozzafava: 7%

    NJ Gov:

    Christie: 48%

    Corzine: 46%

    Daggett: 6%

    VA Gov:

    McDonnell: 55%

    Deeds: 45%

    Maine Question 1:

    Yes: 53%

    No: 47%

    Thank God we’ll finally have a third party member in Congress! This is what we need to get rid of the two-party system and turn America into a true democracy. More choices, more voices!

  72. NY-23:

    Owens: 47

    Hoffman: 45

    Scozzafava: 8

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine: 47

    Christie: 43

    Daggett: 9

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell: 56

    Deeds: 44

    ME Q1:

    Yes: 49

    No: 51

  73. NY-23: Hoffman 48, Owens 36, Scozzafava 16

    NJ Gov: Christie 45, Corzine 41, Daggett 14

    Va Gov: McConnell 54, Deeds 44, Others 2

    ME Question 1: Yes 50.4, No 49.6

    And by the way, I doubt if any of this has any implications whatsoever for 2010, unless you think every Democratic incumbent will be as unpopular as Corzine, every Democratic challenger will be as inept as Deeds, and every open Congressional district will be as historically Republican as NY-23.  Indeed, I still see a 12-15 seat gain for Republicans in the U.S. House and anything from a -2 to +2 change in the U.S. Senate next year (it’s one thing to be less than thrilled with the Democrats in DC, another to give power back to the Republicans given their recent history).

  74. I actually feel better about 2010 (where we should gain in Senate, have modest House losses, and perhaps win some big state Governor’s races) than today.

    NY-23-

    50% Hoffman

    39% Owens

    11% DeDe

    NJ-Gov-

    46% Christie

    44% Corzine

    6% Daggett

    4% other

    VA-Gov-

    56% McDonnell

    43% Deeds

    1% other

    MAINE

    DON’T DISCRIMINATE: 50.1

    DISCRIMINATE: 49.9

    (I don’t get why this is so close.  So ridiculous.  Then again, I have heard that straight people have had to flee Massachusetts to salvage their marriages….)

    CA-10

    51% Garamendi

    45% Harmer

    4% other  

  75. NY-23: Hoffman 50, Owens 46, Scozzzzzzzzzafava 4

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 42, Daggett 11

    VA-Gov: McDonnell 59, Deeds 41

    ME-Q1: Yes 50%, No 50%

  76. NY-23

    Owens  40

    Scozzafava  13

    Hoffman  47

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine  44

    Christie  44

    Daggett  12



    VA-Gov


    Deeds  43

    McDonnell  57

    ME-Q1

    Yes  49

    No  51

  77. NY-23:

    Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)

    Owens 46

    Dede 7

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 45 (wins)

    Christie 45

    Daggett 9

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 58

    Deeds 42

    Maine Q1

    No 50 (wins) (yay)

    Yes 50

    Needless to say, I’m betting on the next decimal place to count today!

    Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let’s say he wins by 10 or under).

  78. NY-23:

    Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)

    Owens 46

    Dede 7

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 45 (wins)

    Christie 45

    Daggett 9

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 58

    Deeds 42

    Maine Q1

    No 50 (wins) (yay)

    Yes 50

    Needless to say, I’m betting on the next decimal place to count today!

    Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let’s say he wins by 10 or under).

  79. New Jersey Governor

    Christie: 45%

    Corzine: 43%

    Daggett: 9%

    Virginia Governor

    McDonnell: 57%

    Deeds: 43%

    Maine Question #1

    No: 52%

    Yes: 48%

    NY-23

    Owens: 49%

    Hoffman: 46%

    Scozzafava: 5%

  80. NY-23 Hoffman 51, Owen 43, Scozzafava 6

    NJ-Gov Christie 47, Corzine 43 Daggett 6 (3% other)

    VA-Gov McDonnell 57 Deeds 43

    Maine Q1 No 52 Yes 48

    Also think CA-10 might be VERY close.

  81. NY-23:

    Owens-45

    Scozzafava-6

    Hoffman-49

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine-44.5

    Christie-46

    Daggett-9.5

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell-56.5

    Deeds-43.5

    Maine Question 1:

    Yes-47

    No-53

  82. NY-23:

    Owens (D)      – 47

    Scozzafava (R) –  4

    Hoffman (C)    – 49

    NJ-GOV:

    Corzine (D)   – 45

    Christie (R)  – 44

    Daggett (I)   – 11

    VA-GOV:

    Deeds (D)     – 44

    McDonnell (R) – 56

    ME Q1:

    Yes        – 47

    No         – 53

  83. VA-Gov

    McDonnell 55.2%

    Deeds 44.8%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 44.6%

    Christie 42.7%

    Daggett 10.1%

    Other 2.6%

    NY-23

    Owens 47%

    Hoffman 45%

    Scozzafava 7%

    Also, fearing a squeaker in CA-10.

    ME-Init.

    No 52%

    Yes 48%

  84. NY-23: Owens 46

       Scozzafva 6

        Hoffman 48

    (early GOP absentees keep DeDe above 5 percent)

    Also, predict will not be called tonight with military absentees

    NJ-Gov: Corzine  45

           Christie 48

           Daggett   7

    (late Indie break and Daggett fall lets Sta-Puff slip past)

    VA-Gov Deeds     44

          McDonnell 56

    (Organizing for America surge voter contact and GOP overconfidence cuts margin)

    Maine Q 1:   YES 54

                NO  46

    (always runs stronger than polls, though counter-intuitive approach of YES for No Gay Marriage may reduce YES votes)

  85. NY-23

    Hoffman 48

    Owens 40

    Scozzofava 12

    NJ-GOV

    Christie 48

    Corzine 47

    Daggett 5

    VA-GOV

    McDonnell 57

    Deeds 43

    Maine Question 1

    Yes 51

    No 49

    CA-10

    Garamendi 54

    Harmer    44

    Other 2

    Washington R-71

    Yes 56

    No 44

    NY-Mayor

    Bloomberg 58

    Thompson 42

  86. NY-23:

    Hoffman – 48%

    Owens – 47%

    Scozzafava – 5%

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine – 44%

    Christie – 43%

    Daggett – 13%

    VA-Gov:

    McDonnell – 57%

    Deeds – 42%

    Maine Question 1:

    “Yes” – 51%

    “No” – 49%

  87. NY 23rd

    Hoffman 48%

    Owens   47%

    Scossovava  5%

    NJ Governor

    Corzine  45%

    Christie 44%

    Dagget 11%

    Virginia Governor

    McDonnell  56%

    Deeds     44%

    Maine Gay Marriage

    No   52%

    Yes  48%

  88. NY-23:

    Scozzafava – 8%

    Owens – 40%

    Hoffman – 52%

    NJ-Gov:

    Daggett – 17%

    Corzine – 42%

    Christie – 41%

    VA-Gov:

    Deeds – 46

    McDonnell – 54

    Maine:

    Yes – 48

    No – 52

  89. NY-23:

    Owens    47

    Hoffman  46

    Scozzafava   7

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine  45

    Christie  43

    Daggett  10

    VA- Gov

    McDonnell     56

    Deeds             43

    ME – Q1

    Yes   47

    No    53

  90. I think Corzine’s GOTV might be enough and I’m hanging my hat on Monmouth but I’ve been burned in the past by ignoring polls in favor of organization. So I’m thinking agonizingly close but not close enough in the two marquees. Recounts would help dull the blow in the media.

    Maine Q1: 51-49 No

    VA-Gov: 57-43 McDonnell

    NJ-Gov: 46-45-9 Christie

    NY-23: 48-47-5 Hoffman

    57-43 Garamendi

    57-43 Bloomberg

    51-49 Foxx

  91. NY 23  Owens 47  Hoffman  46  Scozzafava  5

    NJ  Corzine  43  Christie 43 (corzine wins) Daggett 14

    VA  McDonnell  54  Deeds  46

    ME ? 1  No 51  yes 49

  92. VA-Gov:

    56% Mcdonnell

    44% Deeds

    NJ-Gov:

    Corzine 45%

    Christie 44%

    Daggett 8%

    Others take the rest

    NY-23

    Owens 47%

    Hoffman 45%

    Scozzafava 8%

    Maine Question 1:

    No 50%

    Yes 50%  

  93. NY-23 (I have NO idea what’ll happen here):

    Hoffman – 48% (win)

    Owens – 48%

    Scozzafava – 4%

    NJ-Gov (Daggett does reasonably well, pushes Corzine over the finish line):

    Corzine – 45%

    Christie – 43%

    Daggett – 12%

    VA-Gov (if this isn’t called within 30 mins of polls closing, I’ll be shocked):

    McDonnell – 58%

    Deeds – 42%

    Maine Question 1 (a refreshingly comfortable margin for the good gays):

    “Yes” – 46%

    “No” – 54%

  94. so i’m gonna get hopeful – why? – because i want to:

    NY -23

    Owens  45.5

    Hoffman    45.2

    Scoz      8

    NJ

    Corzine   43.5

    Christie  42.5

    Daggett   13

    Other      1

    VA

    McDonnell  58

    Deeds      41

    Maine

    Yes        50.1

    No         49.9

    And I’ll just take a maple iced donut.

  95. VA:

    McDonnell: 58

    Deeds: 41

    NJ:

    Christie: 47

    Corzine: 46

    Daggett: 6

    NY-23:

    Hoffman: 50

    Owens: 44

    Scozzafava: 6

    Maine:

    Yes: 52

    No: 48

    ——

    Charlotte Mayor:

    Lassister: 52

    Foxx: 48

  96. NY-23

    Hoffman 48.1%

    Owens 43.9%

    Scozzafava 7.2%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine 45.3%

    Christie 45.2%

    Daggett 7.3%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell 56.9%

    Deeds 41.1%

    Maine Question 1

    No 50.3%

    Yes 49.7%

  97. NY-23: Owens 47%, Scozzafava 7%, and Hoffman 46%

    NJ-Gov: Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%

    VA-Gov: Deeds 45% and McDonnell 54%

  98. Election prediction thread

    NY 23rd:

    Owens: 42%

    Hoffman: 41%

    Scozzafava: 7%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine: 44%

    Christie 43%

    Dagget: 13%

    VA-Gov:

    Deeds: 42%

    McDonell: 58%

    Main Question  #1:

    No 51%

    Yes 49%

  99. NY-23

    Owens: 47%

    Hoffman: 46%

    Scozzafava: 7%

    NJ-Gov

    Corzine: 46%

    Christie: 44%

    Daggett: 10%

    VA-Gov

    McDonnell: 55%

    Deeds: 45%

    Maine Question 1

    Yes: 47%

    No: 53%

  100. • NY-23 – Owens 47%, Scozzafava 8%, and Hoffman 45%

    • NJ-Gov  – Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%

    • VA-Gov – Deeds 44% and McDonnell 56%

    • Maine Question 1 – yes 48% and no 52%  

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