Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4

2:50PM: Well, at some point in the last half hour or so, CA-10 got called in favor of John Garamendi. With not much else left to talk about, we’ll wrap it up here. A disappointing night on the balance, although certainly with its surprising bright spots (some of which are also hilarious and teabagger-enraging, like NY-23).

2:07AM: You’re probably out there thinking, “Hey, you promised us results on the House race in Washington’s LD-16!” Unfortunately, the GOP picked that one up. At about R+16 (centered on Walla Walla in eastern Washington), it was by far the reddest seat held by a Dem in the state legislature; long-time Dem Bill Grant died earlier in the year, but his daughter Laura Grant was unable to hold it against GOPer Terry Nealey, 58-42. Dems still are in firm control of the state House, 61-37.

1:57AM: If you’re wondering what happened in all those legislative special elections in Georgia, TheUnknown285 tells you all about it in the diaries.

1:45AM: Assorted good news and bad news. The good news is that Tom Suozzi finally pulled it out in Nassau County, winning by 200-odd votes. The bad news is that the Dems totally dropped the ball in Michigan on that state Senate seat (SD-19, the one that Mark Schauer vacated). GOPer Mike Nofs picked it up easily, 61-34. That boosts the GOP’s edge to 22-16 in the chamber, making it that much harder to flip come 2010 (a key target for redistricting purposes). Also in Michigan, Detroit mayor Dave Bing survived his re-election, although maybe by a closer margin than anticipated (58-42 against Tom Barrow). With Kevin Johnson ensconced in Sacramento, hopefully soon we can field a starting five of NBA guards turned big-city mayors. Can we get Walt Frazier to run for NYC mayor next time?

1:35AM: They’re taking their sweet time in CA-10. Not that it matters. With 51% reporting, it’s still Garamendi 55, Harmer 40.

1:29AM: Couple other odds and ends from Pennsylvania. Wunderkind Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl won re-election without much trouble, getting 55% of the vote against two challengers, including Franco Harris (son of the similarly-named Steelers legend), running as an indie, who pulled in 15%. And in Harrisburg, PA, the Democrat, Linda Thompson won a contested race, 55-45.

1:21AM: The AP now seems to be calling the race in Maine, for the side of evil. The numbers still are at 87% reporting, with it passing 53-47. On the plus side, it’s shaping up to be a good night for pot — Maine’s Question 4, which expands medical marijuana (including state dispensaries), passed 59-41. Maine’s own anti-tax TABOR-style initiative also went down to defeat, 60-40. So: Maine likes pot and taxes. Gays and lesbians, not so much.

1:09AM: Still bad news in Maine; with 86% reporting, the spread grew a tiny bit more on Question 1. “Yes” (i.e. against gay marriage) now leads 53-47.

1:06AM: This definitely calls for a ganja break. The tiny Colorado town of Breckinridge just, via initiative, legalized the possession of up to one ounce of marijuana, plus paraphernalia. 72% voted yes.

12:57AM: There’s one more barnburner that wasn’t on anybody’s radar screen: Tom Suozzi, the Democratic Nassau County Exec (1.5 million people on Lon Gisland), is barely winning reelection. He’s up 48-48, with a 400-vote margin, with 99% reporting (only 10 precincts left). If he wins, he’ll owe his survival to a Constitution Party candidate sucking up votes on the right. Assuming he squeaks through (and that depends on where those last 10 precincts are… hopefully not Massapequa) this may dim his luster a bit; he was seeming likely to run for AG assuming Cuomo vacated to run for Gov.

12:45AM: Here’s a hot mayor’s race I don’t think we’ve mentioned yet. Bill Foster, the more conservative option, beat Kathleen Ford 52-47 in St. Petersburg, Florida.

12:38AM: We’re headed to a runoff in Houston; that was expected. City controller Annise Parker leads at 31%, and she’ll face off against former city attorney Gene Locke, who got 26%.

12:33AM: You know, Chris Christie didn’t seem to have much in the way of coattails. It looks like the GOP only netted one Assembly seat in New Jersey. McDonnell did a little more damage in Virginia, pulling along the LG and AG (Bolling and Kooky Cuccinelli); the net GOP gain in Virginia was 5, which seems to move the GOP’s advantage in the House of Delegates to 60 (including 2 R-leaning indies) to 40. (That might be off by 1, someone correct me if I’m wrong.) (UPDATE at 1AM: NLS says it’s 60-39, with one race still not called.)

12:20AM: Good news from Washington, although R-71 is still closer than I’d like. R-71 is being approved (contra the Maine initiative, ‘yes’ is the vote for tolerance here), 52-48. I-1033 (a TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from unstoppable initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is getting its butt kicked, 44-56. And King County Executive is staying in Democratic hands, as Dow Constantine is beating quasi-Republican Susan Hutchison 57-43. Seattle mayor, though, is paper-thin: contrary to polls, Mike McGinn is leading (he probably has lots of cellphone-only voters), but only 50-49.

12:18AM: Let’s kick it west coast. In CA-10, we’re only up to 29% reporting, and the numbers haven’t changed much. Garamendi leads Harmer 56-40. Looks like Garamendi got most of the last minute deciders (based on that 50-40 poll). So that’s two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).

12:16AM: Of course, it’s all ACORN’s fault.

12:15AM: More good news from the comments: Hoffman has apparently conceded in the 23rd. Thus sparing us the agony of a NY-20 style drawn-out recount process, and we won’t have to wonder about those malfunctioning St. Lawrence County machines. Cue the sound of a million wingnut heads ‘sploding.

12:07AM: Bad news from the comments: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has been called for the Republican (Jane Orie Melvin). This looks like it’ll hand the advantage in state legislative redistricting to the GOP for 2010.

12:05AM: Thanks to DavidNYC for handling all the hard stuff; I’ll be working the late shift and the west coast stories. Let’s start the new thread with some good news. Reportedly Fox has called NY-23 for Bill Owens. Who would have ever thunk that we could pick up the 23rd at the same time as we’re losing NJ-Gov?

233 thoughts on “Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4”

  4. Corzine winning was dependent upon Daggett getting double-digit support.  As it became clear in the last week that Daggett’s support was slipping, I predicted Christie would have a victory of about the magnitude he did.  I am a little surprised Owens apparently pulled it off in NY-23 though.

  5. It seemed like Christie rallied the last 3-4 days of the campaign and Daggett imploded, but despite the implosion his numbers were still twice as high in red counties than they were in blue ones.

    Corzine just got blow out, and I can’t feel bad about that, having read about his governorship for years and the corrupt Democratic party machine there blocking Corey Booker or Dick Codey from running and crushing Christie, I might have voted, heck, I would have voted for him to send a message.

    AS I put it elsewhere, the choice was between an egotistical corrupt incompetent conservative who can’t get along with the state legislature and an egotistical corrupt incompetent liberal who can’t get along with the state legislature.

    Maybe now the State Party will get the damn message.

  6. NJ-Gov was a dead heat, there’s nothing surprising about the result.  Very disappointing, yes, but not surprising.  One plausible fear always was Daggett’s bottom dropping out, and it did.

    And the polling on NY-23 was never to be trusted.  It’s an axiom too many forget that House races are very difficult to poll under ordinary circumstances.  Throw in a special election, combined with a bunch of local races on the ballot but nothing else, add in a viable 3rd-party candidate, then stir in a disastrous major-party nominee campaign that causes her to withdraw 3 days before the election, and then endorse the opposing major-party nominee the next day……and anyone thinks that can be polled?!  Don’t get me wrong, Siena, Daily Kos, and PPP all did a public service and good deed by TRYING to poll the race.  But the numbers were never to be trusted except for the obvious things they taught, such as Scozzafava’s irrelevance.

    The big winners out of NY-23 are Owens, Democrats everywhere, President Obama, and Scozzafava herself as her endorsement is vindicated by Owens’ win and she looks likely to switch parties and join the NY Assembly Democratic Caucus in the near future.  And on that last point I say:  “Welcome, DeDe, our tent really is big enough for you!”

  7. Turns out that their only really crappy poll was NY-23. But nobody could get a good read on that race.

    There’s not much good news tonight, but I think anti-incumbency sentiment overrode and partisan explosion.  

  8. right now we’re at about 3/4 of the votes in, down by 4 points.

    Anybody know whether this is one of those states in which the urban votes come in last (i.e. Portland?)  

  12. …to New Haven mayor John DeStefano, elected to a ninth term. New Haven’s northern burb Hamden also elected its first black mayor, which is very enlightening news.

  14. http://www.courant.com/news/el…

    South Windsor, CT just went from a 5-4 R majority to a 5-4 D majority, which means that the mayor (just one person chosen from among the council) will be a Democrat as well.

    Don’t know about the other races, though.  However it does point to one more anecdote about anti-incumbent sentiment…until you look at who got elected.  Four out of five Democrats are returning, as are three of four Republicans.

  15. People don’t like incompetent incumbents.  That’s why Corizine lost to a horrible openent

    People aren’t so partisan as we think and typically go for the better communicator more often than not.  That’s why Deeds lost

    All things equal a generic dem beats a generic R  That’s why Owens won.

  16. …as well as the Republicans picking up two eastern Queens city council seats shows that Republicans may be ready to rebound in NYC suburbia if they play their cards right in 2010.  Not that they necessarily will if the Doug Hoffman’s of the world have a say in the matter.

  17. The big non-federal races were the ones that Dems lost, and the federal races are the ones Dems won.  

  21. County Executive – Nassau – General

    1020 of 1142 Precincts Reporting – 89%

    Name Party Votes Vote %

    Mangano, Edward GOP 104,472 48%

    Suozzi, Thomas (i) Dem 103,590 48%

    Hansen, Steven Con 8,519 4%

  24. will end up 59-39-2 if current leads hold.  Four districts – 21, 23, 34, and 41 are in recount territory, with Republicans leading three of them.

  25. Three people involved in the 2006 California Lt. Governor’s race (Jackie Speier, Tom McClintock and now John Garamendi) serve together in Congress.  

  26. The 23rd makes me feel good about holding onto the House in ’10. I don’t know what kind of mojo the folks at D-trip have, but they kick ass.

  29. I made fun of Detroit for casting only 120,000 votes for mayor (though only about 850,000 and dropping are left there) while Nassau’s 1.5 million can only muster 250,000 votes? In one of the wealthiest and best educated areas of the country? Someone move these races to Presidential or Midterm years please…

  31. In Riverside, CA, moderate Democrat incumbent Ron Loveridge has beaten moderate Republican businessman Art Gage by about 70-30. Quite the unexpected blow-out in these anti-incumbent times. Riverside consolidates its status as the greatest city ever.

  35. marijuana by voter initative. I mean hell if med mj is this much more popular then gay and lesbians couples rights and yet same sex marraige is legal in some states how long will it take for marijuana to be legalized on the state level. (I realize there are state vs. federal problems on this but that doesn’t stop it from being placed on the ballot and no i’m not joyous about gay people being denied equal rights I am furious over it however I am taking solice in the one ray of sunshine in this equation that marijuana may be gaining enough popularity for politicans to start standing up to the insane and racially motivated practices of our drug war.)

  37. Garamendi campaigned on it, and Owens came out for the public option at the end. Both are obviously to the left of the Representatives they replace–Taucher and McHugh. So the odds on close votes in the House just got fractionally better

  38. Wingnuts can’t win seats on the national stage outside deep red areas.

    Uninspiring, been-around-forever, hackish Dems will have trouble with non-wingnut mainstream Republicans.

    Democrats need to primary their unispiring hacks.  Specter is facing a challenge, but Harry Reid is not.  While not very hackish, Dodd is uninspiring and could use a challenge too.  The electorate is simply tired of guys who have been around for a long while and don’t have clear, solid accomplishments to point to.

    Democrats need to smell the coffee and similarly run against complacent Republicans (Grassley…).

  39. Apparently, assistant attorney general Roland Corning of South Carolina was caught speeding away from a stripper from behind a cemetery, a few days ago.

    1. Why do these things come out of South Carolina?

    2. Is it okay if I make puns on “undying love” and refer to a certain song by Cutting Crew, or are these puns just dead wrong?

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