DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (11/10-15, registered voters, 4/27-30 in parentheses):

Beau Biden (D): 45 (34)

Mike Castle (R): 40 (55)

Undecided: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Mike Castle may be rasping to himself, Lloyd Bridges-style, “Looks like I picked the wrong week to run for Senate.” And Beau Biden, who’s been strangely coy about whether or not to run for Senate since his return from Iraq, may suddenly feel motivated to declare his intentions.

Susquehanna does a fair amount of Republican internal polling, so unless they’re trying some weird messing-with-Biden’s-head psy-ops, that makes the finding of a 5-point Biden lead all the more surprising. The last time they looked at the race was April, when Castle had a 21-point lead instead. Between this and R2K‘s findings last month that the race was a dead heat, it may be time for the rest of the punditocracy to re-evaluate whether this is really the GOP’s best shot at a pickup.

UPDATE: The full memo is available now, and Susequehanna attributes this shift in large part to Castle’s “no” vote on health care reform, which occurred shortly before the poll went into the field and apparently didn’t play well with the state’s left-leaning electorate. They also point to Castle polling better among Republicans (72-17) than Biden does among Democrats (65-21), but given Delaware’s sizable Democratic registration advantage and a narrowing Castle edge among indies (42-37, down from 55-28 in April), that’s enough to put Biden over the top.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen

118 thoughts on “DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle”

  3. by voting against healthcare reform.  He might have been able to weasel his way out of explaining his stimulus vote, but he can’t go against every single one of Obama’s agenda items and not have it come back to bite him.  Honestly, I’m surprised it’s happening so fast, I didn’t think Biden would pass him in the polls until early next year when the campaigns ramp up.  Rothenberg still has this as a lean takeover, the only such Senate race in the entire country he sees as likely to flip.

  4. I’ve been really suprised at how conservative he’s been this year in Congress.  His votes against the stimulus package and for the Stupak Amendment will definitely come back to haunt him.  

  6. was even worse. Delaware is effectively a suburban Philadelphia Congressional district with a fairly high black population. You don’t endear yourself to suburban women by voting for an anti-choice amendment.  

  7. Beau Biden will jump in about a month from now. The race will be a lot like the Carper vs. Roth in 2000. Final results will probably be:

    55% Biden

    45% Castle

    In addition, had Jack Markell or John Carney ran against Castle in 2006 or 2008, Castle would have been unseated.

    Senate Races in DE, CO, AR, CT, and IL are going to be like fools gold for the GOP.

  8. are NV and CO with AR and CT at 50/50.  But it is still very early and much could change.  Especially, if the econmomy continues to improve and is substantially better by next Nov.  As they say, a rising tide raises all boats, or something like that.

  10. To put is simply, he’s back from Iraq and visible in the state again.

    It’s awful hard to maintain one’s own public image if you’re invisible.  I’m sure a lot of people were aware in the back of their minds that Beau was serving in Iraq and honor that in the abstract, but if you’ve got an elected official who’s an absentee for any reason, that seeps into the public consciousness by making people dismiss him.  And giving a double-bounce is that Beau isn’t just back on people’s radar screen, but BACK FROM IRAQ, which I assume has been in the news in the Delaware media.  So there are warm feelings for him.

    You can’t just look at this Susquehanna poll, you have to see that there’s a clear trend with Rasmussen and DailyKos/R2K showing a similarly close race, after spring polling showed Castle ahead by varying margins.

    The only thing that’s changed to cause this trend for Beau Biden is that he returned from Iraq.

    And I’m skeptical the health care vote mattered too much to hurt Castle.  Most people nationwide are very confused by the health care legislative initiative, as it’s too complex with too many drastically different competing bills out there to understand the issue and “favor” any particular bill.  Only real junkies like us even TRY to follow it closely, and many of us still don’t understand a lot of it.  And on top of all that, a single vote on a single bill, even a major one, this far from an election just doesn’t register too strongly with most people.  That doesn’t mean this can’t be used against Castle later because it can, but it’s part of defining Castle negatively which hasn’t happened yet and I seriously doubt is happening on its own.  This Susquehanna poll didn’t show favorability or job approval ratings for Castle or Biden, but I have a hard time believing Castle’s have taken a hit yet over health care or anything else.

  11. could potentially be a great thing for Beau in the long-run, assuming he wins (and I’ve always believed that he would prevail in a contest with Castle, as these numbers begin to suggest).  No surer way to fight off charges that he didn’t earn it than by vanquishing the absolute strongest candidate the Republicans could put forward.

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