Big news in the Big Apple:
Former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy, according to people who have been told of the decision….
It was not clear what prompted the decision, but the prospect of potentially facing Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, who is quietly planning his own run for governor, may not have appealed to Mr. Giuliani, who suffered a bruising defeat in the 2008 Republican presidential primary. While many political analysts believe Mr. Giuliani would have comfortably beaten Gov. David A. Paterson, he would likely have faced an uphill battle against Mr. Cuomo, one of the most popular politicians in the state.
New York Democrats must be sighing with relief over the prospect, however remote it may have been, of not having to face a Giuliani/Paterson matchup. Of course, this may make it likelier that incumbent Gov. Paterson stays in the race, seeing as how even he seems to have a good shot at beating the likely GOP nominee, ex-Rep. Rick Lazio. But this also makes it likelier that AG Andrew Cuomo pulls the trigger on a run (he’s already assembling plans behind the scenes, including a full slate of Dems to run with), since, given his titanic polling leads over both Paterson in the primary and Lazio in the general, it’s pretty much a governorship for the taking for him now.
One other NY-Gov topic: Rasmussen released a poll of the general election matchups in the race yesterday, although the poll’s now looking obsolete already. Interestingly, it had one of Giuliani’s best performances so far, with Rudy trailing Cuomo only 49-46. (Giuliani beats Paterson 57-30. Cuomo beats Lazio 57-29, while Lazio beats Paterson 41-37.) Giuliani may well have decided against a run well in advance of this poll, though, simply given the state’s lean and the financial challenges of a run against Cuomo — and probably that if he somehow won it’d be a lot less lucrative and more frustrating than his current “job” as national security talking head and consultant.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, according to NY1, Giuliani is now calling the New York Times story “premature” and saying he has not finalized a decision. (H/t andyroo312.)
LATER UPDATE: Wow, crazy rumors are flying all over the place now. The New York Daily News has him headed to the Senate race instead:
“In the next 48 hours he will announce that he will not run for governor, but will run for the Senate,” said a source familiar with the thing of the former mayor and failed presidential candidate….
If elected, the source said, he would use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 – and would not run for re-election to the Senate. A Giuliani spokeswoman downplayed the reports.
CNN, on the other hand, is merely saying, via Giuliani spokesperson Maria Comella, that Giuliani hasn’t decided bupkus yet, and they’ll keep us posted.
EVEN LATER UPDATE: Comella gives a pretty explicit and succinct denial to Politico’s Ben Smith, regarding the Senate rumor: “It’s not true.” Smith says that if Giuliani did run for the Senate, it would come as a surprise to members of his inner circle.
RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Gov
http://ny1.com/1-all-boroughs-…
Cuomo only beats Giuliani by 3%? LOL
http://www.nydailynews.com/new…
Daily News says he is running for Seante Vs. Gilabrand now. He will announce soon.
He was even that popular as mayor toward the end of his term and then 9/11 happened and every is like Rudy is a hero. I am so sick of Rudy
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1…
Argument sounds suspiciously like a report months ago from a veteran NY reporter whose name escapes me. He was pushing the exact same thing. Probably the same source.
There is no way this is true. He may indeed run for the Senate, something I personally think looks increasingly unlikely, but there is no way he is sworn into the Senate in January 2011 and then heads straight to Iowa/New Hampshire. Giuliani is one grandstanding SOB, but I don’t even think he has the chutzpah to pull that one off.
I really don’t think he’s going to run for anything, but my record on calling these things looks bad after Mike Castle tossed his septugenarian hat into the ring. I wish he’d just go back to making money off corporate speeches so I never have to see his ratface on TV ever again.
Rudy only runs for Senate if he wants to spend time talking about forgein policy.
Rudy is the 9/11 hero (hey I was in NY then regardless of what you think of him he did an amazing job then so please don’t flame me for saying it) who still believes in the War on Terror. The Senate is the perfect platform for him to concentrate on that.
Being a US Senator Rudy can push his neo-con beliefs in a way he can’t as governor of New York.
The question is what does Rudy want to do now at age 65. Devote the rest of his life to fighting Shelly Silver and striking deals with Pedro Espada or being a statesman on World Affairs.
I can see how the Senate would have an appeal for him that wasn’t there for him in 2000.
it would probably resemble the Weld vs Kerry race in Massachusetts. In addition, Chuck Schumer would do everything in his power to make sure his protege Kirsten Gillibrand won and we all know that Schumer has a lot of power. Especially when Schumer himself is also on the ballot and wins with around 70% to 80% of the vote.
Number of incumbent Democrats defeated for reelection in New York Senate races since the adoption of the 17th Amendment;
0
Number of incumbent Republicans defeated for reelection in New York Senate races since the adoption of the 17th Amendment;
7
William Calder (1922)
John Foster Dulles (1949)
Ken Keating (1964)
Charles Goodell (1970)
James Buckley (1976)
Jacob Javitz (1980)
Al D’Amato (1998)
Im broke enough as it is!!!!
In media attention it’ll probably comparable to the 1996 Kerry-Weld election except there won’t be a popular Democratic incumbent president pulling in votes and Guiliani will not show the class and restraint Weld did. Instead it will be a year that looks to be favorable to Republicans in an election a year after Republicans took ground back in areas key for any Republican win in New York (Queens, Long Island, and Westchester).
Guiliani running however makes no sense in terms of a Presidential run. To run for the Republican nomination he needs to move himself to the right. To win the Senate seat he’ll have to drift to the left. Kirsten Gillibrand will also force him to promise emphatically he won’t run for President (and failure to do so will sink him). Words he’ll have to eat and that will be used against him immediately afterwards in a Presidential run.
He also would make a rather lousy legislator. Patience and congeniality are not his strong points.
Obviously she’d be easier to beat than Cuomo who everyone assumes will run for Governor. Cuomo would be practically run out of the party if he DIDN’T run. That’s how unpopular Patterson is (and how much hope Democrats are placing on Cuomo to save them in 2010). He’d also probably not get the state Conservative Party line. Nevermind the damage it will do to his chances of winning it will prove a public relations disaster as he tries to court national conservatives for a Presidential run.
If Guiliani has national ambitions he’d be better off staying out of any race in New York.