KS-03: Moore Won’t Run Again

Here’s hoping this is an isolated incident and not the start of a trend:

U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat who confounded the GOP by winning six consecutive elections in a heavily Republican district, will not seek re-election next year, key Democrats said Sunday.

Moore, who represented Johnson, Wyandotte and a portion of Douglas counties, will issue a statement today explaining his decision and outlining his plans. Moore, 64, is expected to finish out his term, which ends in January 2011.

Maybe this shouldn’t be a total surprise, as Moore was a rumored retirement in the immediate aftermath of last year’s election, although he quickly resolved to run in 2010. As most of you know, open seats were where we really got killed in 1994, so hopefully Moore’s reversal won’t put ideas in the heads of too many other Blue Dogs feeling the heat in red-leaning districts.

“Heavily Republican” in the above quote is a bit of an overstatement, as Barack Obama narrowly won this district last year and it currently sits at R+3, making it now the most favorable part of Kansas to us. Former state Rep. Patricia Lightner is the only elected Republican already in the race (along with two unknowns), but everyone is already speculating that former state Sen. Nick Jordan (who ran in 2008, and given the trends that year, handled himself well, losing by 14 points), may now try again. Jordan is one of the few Kansas GOPers with appeal to both the parties’ disparate moderate and conservative wings. As for the Democrats, most of the Dems’ few state Senators in Kansas are found in this district, including Chris Steineger, who had made some noises this summer about running for Governor but didn’t seem to follow through (Steineger may not be a good bet here, as he seems to have irritated most of the rest of the state’s Democrats at various points).

UPDATE: Republican state Rep. and state House Appropriations chair Kevin Yoder leapt into action, forming an exploratory committee within hours.

LATER UPDATE: Politico reports that Jordan has told party leaders today that he’ll be running. They also mention a POS internal that showed Moore with a 44/48 re-elect, which may have contributed to his re-think on retirement. On the Dem side, no one has stepped up yet, but people are focusing on Kansas City, KS mayor Joe Reardon as the best bet. Tom Wiggans, who just got into the gubernatorial race, could also possibly shift gears and jump over to the 3rd.

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-03

93 thoughts on “KS-03: Moore Won’t Run Again”

  2. This is more likely than not going to instigate a feeding frenzy among Republicans. As alluded to above, the intra-party warfare has been going on for ages in Kansas, and this is surely going to give the Club for Growth yet another cause celebre. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the teabaggers decided Jordan were too moderate and put up someone even further off the reservation – which could allow a credible Democrat to win in a narrow Obama district.

    That being said, this is clearly going to be a really tough hold in the present environment.

  4. …are likely going to clean up at the top of the ticket (Brownback, Moran) does not bode well for this cycle. This is the type of suburban/college town district we really want to keep too.

  7. Wyandotte and the part of Douglas will vote Dem for any competent non-offensive candidate. WyCo/Douglas gave Moore a 40K lead (out of like 78K votes cast) and Johnson gave Moore a 17K lead out of 269795 votes cast.

    So the big leads in WyCo/Douglas won’t matter if the candidate fails in Johnson County.

    Wonder if any moderate Republicans wanna go to a party that will appreciate them. Just hoping for Kay O’Connor to win the Republican Primary isn’t enough

  8. 1) Moore Retiring

    2) Tancredo’s not running for CO-GOV (Maybe Ritter gives up on re-election and Hickenlooper runs, cause Ritter looks DOA to me)

    3) Tom Schieffer is dropping his bid for TX-GOV. (Only one with a potential upside, Bill White for Governor)

  9. The DCCC chair said they had an “early warning system” in order to minimize retirements in the House Democratic Caucus. It sucks that Moore is retiring, but this seat is no longer as solidly GOP as it once was and we seem to have a decent bench of Dem officeholders in the district who might be interested in heading to Congress. This won’t be easy to hold, but I’d say it’s a safer bet to say the Dems hold this seat than Charlie Melancon’s.

    Which other Democratic reps are considered possible retirements at this point?

  10. involves him speaking at Tea Parties in April

    Here are the Democratic legislators by county

    Wyandotte

    St. Sen. David Haley (already lost for Sec of State, twice)

    St. Sen. Kelly Kultala (first term, fresh off primarying a Phill Kline Dem)

    St. Sen. Chris Steineger (tea partier)

    St. Rep. Tom Burroughs

    St. Rep. Stan Frownfelter

    St. Rep. Broderick Henderson

    St. Rep. Margaret Long

    St. Rep. Louis Ruiz

    St. Rep. Valdenia Winn

    Johnson

    St. Rep. Lisa L. Benlon (first term, replaced Sue Storm, who is now on the KS Board of Education)

    St. Rep. Cindy Neighbor (former Republican, won her seat back in 2006)

    St. Rep. Gene Rardin (70 on 1/3/11, won two very close elections)

    As for the replacement process if a State Senator wins (no State Senator is up for re-election in 2010), the party committee picks the next Senator. State Reps are up in 2010, as you’d expect.

    I’d hope the succession is the same for the State Board of Education, because Sue Storm might be the most viable Johnson County candidate.

  12. Tom Wiggans, who just got into the gubernatorial race, could also possibly shift gears and jump over to the 3rd.

    could the KS Gubernatorial race get any worse for the Dems?

  13. Sean Tevis?  I know he lost his state house race, but he’s in Olathe, part of KS-03, and look at how close he was.  He lost 52%-48%, while Democrats to the north, south, and east of him couldn’t even get 25% of the vote.  Tevis came from nowhere to give a real scare to an entrenched incumbent in a deep red district.  It looks like he’s running for the state house again in 2010; would he switch over to the U.S. House race if need be?

    No idea if he’d be a good fit for the entire district, I’m just going off of how well he did in a deeply conservative place like Olathe.

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