Charlie Crist has been promising to get more proactive in dealing with the Marco Rubio challenge, but he’s taking a strange new approach to dealing with his growing unpopularity among the Republican base: attack the base for being wrong. He buried it in a statement of his own conservative bona fies, but it’s there all the same, calling out the teabaggers on their very teabaggishness:
“It’s hard to be more concervative than I am on issues – though there are different ways stylistically to communicate that – I’m pro-life, I’m pro-gun, I’m pro-family, and I”m anti tax…. I don’t know what else you’re supposed to be, except maybe angry too…”
… and makes fun of their marginalization… but it’s that same marginalization (real or not) that fuels the very sense of victimization that’s at the root of their anger:
“There are a lot of Republicans that don’t have the inclination to go to executive committee meetings….There is wide swath of republican voters out there that don’t necessarily listen to cable tv all the time.”
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest poll of the race (from late last week):
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/16-18, likely voters, 1/26-28 in parentheses):
Charlie Crist (R): 47 (57)
Marco Rubio (R): 37 (4)
Undecided: 16 (21)
(MoE: ±5%)Kendrick Meek (D): 33 (28)
Charlie Crist (R): 50 (49)
Undecided: 17 (23)Kendrick Meek (D): 38 (31)
Marco Rubio (R): 30 (22)
Undecided: 32 (47)
(MoE: ±4%)
Not much change in the general election numbers since R2K first looked at potential matchups in January, when the idea of Charlie Crist in the Senate race was a bit fanciful. But look at that primary election trendline: the 10-point spread is the narrowest yet seen, and taken as a whole, it’s gotta be alarming to Crist. (Don’t get too excited yet about that 8-pt. lead by Meek over Rubio — 40% of GOPers are undecided, vs. 24% of Dems, so guess which way they’re likely to break.)
Once Crist finds out that attacking teabaggers for being teabaggers isn’t going to work, he might be looking for an even more desperate measure to save his well-tanned hide. Knowing that much of Crist’s success lies in his appeal to indies and soft Dems, Markos has been craftily working another angle: encouraging him to pull one of two variations on a Specter. It turns out the math is actually there for him:
Kendrick Meek (D): 31
Marco Rubio (R): 27
Charlie Crist (I): 32
Undecided: 10Charlie Crist (D): 45
Marco Rubio (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
Finally, R2K also takes its first look at the governor’s race. Like most other pollsters, there see a lot of undecideds, and a narrow gap between Republican AG Bill McCollum and Democratic CFO Alex Sink.
Bill McCollum (R): 45
Paula Dockery (R): 9
Undecided: 46
(MoE: ±5%)Alex Sink (D): 33
Bill McCollum (R): 35
Undecided: 32Alex Sink (D): 35
Paula Dockery (R): 13
Undecided: 52
(MoE: ±4%)
the numbers reversed in that Crist/Meek matchup.
And I’ll say it again. Rubio will be the republican nominee. The only question is how long it takes Crist to realize that fact.
And Sink should win the Governor’s race. McCollum’s approvals are much higher than they will be by election day and most undecides in the polls are Dems and Indies.
In addition to likely winning the Senate seat, as an added bonus for ole Charlie, he could probably come out of the closet if he switched parties. Heck, it would probably even ensure that the Democratic base votes for him in a primary.
Which gives Rubio so much time to gain and Charlie so much time to slip down. The republican wingnuts in Florida’s panhandle will turn out like crazy to vote for Marco Rubio and the Florida panhandle is basically the strength of the republican party in Florida. I also do not think Meek will be the democratic nominee. This seat could easily switch parties and having to democratic senators from Florida would be awesome!
The netroots should be behind Meek more than they are. He and Tim Ryan had some great back and forth on the House floor slamming Bush over the last few years. It isn’t his fault that he is in an easy district and hasn’t drawn a stronger challenge in the past to strengthen some of his skills. You run where you are from.
…Rubio overtaking Crist if I had more confidence in Meeks. This is a golden opportunity to perhas take a seat on a difficult year and we’re certainly not fielding our a team.
I have not heard many people comment on Meek’s race. Will he be able to generate a large African American turnout because he is African American or will he not be able to? He is a base candidate but he does not excite the base. Also, I have heard some people say Rubio will not do well in the Panhandle because people will not want to vote for a Hispanic. Isn’t it possible they might not want to vote for an African American either?
In my opinion, if Christ runs, he wins because he should do well in the white parts of the Gold Coast and other white parts of the state. I have relatives on the Gold Coast and in July, they were openly not voting for Obama because he was African American. Then in September, they changed their minds because they could not find one reason to vote for McCain and Palin….We know how popular she is among socially Liberal people from the northeast.
My relatives might not go to Meek because of his race or Rubio so these normally Democratic voters will stay home unless Christ is on the ballot so they might vote for him.
Thank God this election will actually be in ballot booths not the intertubes.
I have asked a couple of times why the posters (and maybe the editors, too) on this blog hate Meek so much. And the answers I get are: A) His mom seemed to hand off the seat – (I understand this and I resent all the nepotists who do this – Kennedys included) and B) He is more conservative than his far-left wing district – even though everyone here admits that he could never win a statewide race if he did vote that way.
The first reason is legit, but Chris Dodd, Ted Kennedy, Evan Bayh, Stephanie Herseth, Beau Biden, Andre Carson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, both Senators Udall – are all there because of nepotism, too. It’s just silly to make it too big of a deal. Voters are very comfortable with it. The fact that many of us aren’t is something we can be proud of, but it should not interfere with our judgment of people as candidates for higher office or our judgment of their perfomance in office.
The second reason is in my view dumb. If he has aspirations for higher office, than that’s exactly what he should be doing. Given the the FL gerrymander delegation. You have two true talented moderates (Kosmas and Klein), who could be viable statewide, Debbie W-S and Wexler are talented but too far to the left to be viable, and Meek seems a cut above the rest (Corinne Brown, Allen Boyd, Katherine Castor, Grayson (who will probably lose his own seat next year)).
Meek is a good speaker, has a good record for the state, has a pretty good resume, and has been running hard and raising money effectively. that lloks like a good candidate – especially a state with so few candidates of any kind at all.
but she did not choose to run.
Happy Thanksgiving to the editors here and all the regular posters.
Now – to the bourbon Pecan Pie recipe…