NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (43)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (48)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (39)

Sue Lowden (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±4%)

Them ol’ Reid Boys got themselves a heap of trouble. Harry Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian by significant margins. Reid also has bad favorables of 38/49, compared with blank-slate-ish results for the GOPers: 33/13 for Lowden and 32/12 for Tarkanian.

Former state party chair Lowden, who now has prominent GOP strategist Dick Wadhams in her cheering section, has a lot of noisy detractors in the GOP screaming “RINO” (mostly from Paulists ticked off over her anti-Ron Paul chicanery at the 2008 caucus). But she still has enough establishment support for a small plurality in the primary, as seen below. Note that the big gainer is, as I expected, right-wing Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who seems to be carrying the movement conservative flag in this race. But contrary to what I expected, this may be more of a three-way race than a five-way, though: rich guy John Chachas and state Sen. Mark Amodei are down at 1% with the nobodies.

Sue Lowden (R): 25 (23)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 24 (21)

Sharron Angle (R): 13 (9)

Bill Parson (R): 1 (1)

Robin Titus (R): 1 (1)

Mike Wiley (R): 1 (1)

John Chachas (R): 1 (NA)

Mark Amodei (R): 1 (NA)

Undecided: 33 (44)

(MoE: ±6%)

Political Wire also has a leaked look at the same poll’s gubernatorial numbers. UPDATE (DavidNYC, 12/5): The full numbers are now available from the LVRJ:

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 18

Brian Sandoval (R): 39

Michael Montadon (R): 6

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±6%)

Rory Reid (D): 34 (33)

Brian Sandoval (R): 49 (50)

Undecided: 17

Rory Reid (D): 48

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 34

Undecided: 18

Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)

Brian Sandoval (R): 32 (33)

Oscar Goodman (I): 35 (33)

Undecided: 9

Rory Reid (D): 25

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25

Oscar Goodman (I): 38

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

The younger half of the Reid boys, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, isn’t faring well either, getting pasted by Republican former AG Brian Sandoval in a two-way and finishing third behind Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman and Sandoval in a three-way. My personal wish list is to see a Goodman/Reid Dem primary matchup and a Goodman/Sandoval general polled — Goodman is a Dem as Las Vegas mayor, and running as a Dem would probably only increase his chances of winning the general as he’d probably pick up most of those Reid votes in the general (however, he’s been pretty adamant that if he runs, it’s as an indie). Not that we might necessarily want the, um, “colorful” Goodman to be governor, but that’s a whole ‘nother kettle of fish.

I’m not sure if the LVRJ didn’t leak numbers of a Reid/Gibbons and Goodman/Reid/Gibbons matchup like they did last time, or if they didn’t even bother polling it. (UPDATE: They did poll Gibbons.) This time (unlike last time), they tested the GOP primary, finding a mighty edge for former AG Brian Sandoval, so maybe they decided just not to bother polling Gibbons in the general. Problems abound on every front today for Gibbons, whose soon-to-be-ex-wife Dawn is interviewed in Reno Magazine and paints an entirely unsympathetic portrait of the governor.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov

53 thoughts on “NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys”

  1. Harry Reid has been ineffective as majority leader. I’ll take Schumer or anybody with some guts who would be better at that job even with less dems than Reid has been with a majority.  

  2. If I were in his shoes, it’s what I’d be doing-he’s older than dirt after all, no one likes him, and it’d make things a little less difficult for his son (not that I’m a fan of Rory mind you).  Plus it’d give us a chance to run a fresh face who might have a better chance at winning AND be more effective in the Senate.

  3. There’s no reason to think that Reid will automatically get ML if he is reelected so maybe if he wins we can have our cake and eat it too.

  6. When Democrats had two independents, one Joe Lieberman, for a bare 51-49 majority and faced Dick Cheney as the tie breaker, Reid was OK.

    He’s not in opposition any more and the collegial caution that was appropriate in the past is destructive today.  Change your tactics and style, Harry, or the voters will do it for you.

    There is no way that Evan Bayh would a) move sharply rightward and b) create a group of Conservadems without significant pressure under a more forceful leader.  Ben Nelson would face some encouragement not to screw up the stimulus and other packages.  Lincoln and Landrieu would be schooled and Masx Baucus’ dalliance with Republicans in the Finance Com mitte (ahead of Democrats) should have gotten him replaced.

    Ironically, after the 2010 elections, it may be too late to replace Reid even if he is re-elected. It is certainly not hard to see Harry creating conditions, once again where 60 seats is replaced by (to pull a number out of a hat) 53.  We are not there yet but he’s creating the conditions.  

  8. Can somebody explain to me how Rory Reid has the gubernatorial primary field to himself? I would think his father muscled him through but from previous reports it doesn’t seem like either of them want the other in the race.  

  9. Nevada is a state that is really trending in the Democratic direction, particularly in populous Clark and Washoe counties.  Obama won here by an astounding 12%.  There’s no reason whatsoever that there should be TWO Republican senators from Nevada given that it’s purple even on a bad day.  

    I chalk this up to unpopularity of the incumbent, and what’s even more unfortunate is that Harry Reid’s unpopularity threatens to screw up what should be an easy win for us in the governor’s race.  I think we’re headed to an independent governor in Nevada, usually when an incumbent is as unpopular as Gibbons is, that candidate’s party has no chance the next time around.

  10. So since he’d basically be a democrat running as an independent I wonder if he would sign off on a democratic gerrymander of Nevada in 2012.  Anyone know?

  11. Poll Goodman as a Democrat against the best Republican… show him winning by 15 points.  Force him to small the coffee.

    Poll Berkley against Reid.  Poll some unknown state senator against Reid.  See what the numbers are.  

    Another poll saying the Reids suck is a waste of time.

    (Are Nevada Democrats really this wimpy. Almost anybody outspent 10-1 could still beat someone named Reid.)

  12. the polls right before 2008 showed obama with a slight lead, yet he won with 55%.  it’s possible that a combination of the highly fluctuating electorate (people moving in and out), a high number of people using cell phones unreachable by pollsters and illegals who vote but don’t have phones (or don’t want to answer the poll) is scewing the results towards the republicans.    

  13. Once again, can anyone answer me as to why Goodman is so willing to run as Mayor as a Democrat but not Governor?  It’s not like this is Alabama.

  14. Gov. Gibbons soon to be ex-wife on her husband.  What a jerk.

    http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.d…

    Gibbons says her future husband was easy to get along with, and she remembers thinking he was a good man.

    But after a year-and-a-half, she broke off the relationship because she felt unappreciated. She says the final straw was when he gave her a birthday card that read, “You’re so lucky because you have me.”

  15. Does Harry Reid even know this blog exists, let alone reads it? I know Schumer does, but Reid is so inanimate I doubt he’s even glanced at a computer, even for porn.

    Let’s hope he does know of your existence, then he can realize how much he sucks.

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