Public Policy Polling (pdf) (12/10-13, registered voters):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 46
Chris Nelson (R): 39
Undecided: 15Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 52
Blake Curd (R): 31
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.7%)
PPP gave us our choice last week of which Dem-held sleeper race to pick, and South Dakota’s at-large seat was a good one to pick, as it’s emblematic of where House Dems are right now. Herseth Sandlin is personally popular (with 49/38 approvals) and, as a leader among the Blue Dogs, a good fit for her Republican-leaning district and not someone who’d leap to mind as among the most vulnerable. Still, as with many red-district House members, she’s suffering from association with the larger party (Barack Obama’s approval is 41/52, and approval of the House’s HCR bill is 25/59), and facing a stronger recruit than usual, in the form of outgoing Republican Secretary of State Chris Nelson.
The result is Herseth Sandlin up by a tolerable margin against Nelson, 46-39, although she’s below the 50% safety zone and Nelson is strangely unknown for a statewide official (29/12 favorables, with 59% unknown), giving him a lot of room for growth. She wins with little effort, though, against Sioux Falls-area state Rep. Blake Curd, who has only 6/13 favorables. I’m not sure what angle Curd has for getting out of the primary, though (other than self-financing, perhaps; Curd is a surgeon by day). In the end, given her personal popularity, Herseth Sandlin still has to be favored here, but this poll certainly indicates that further erosion in standing among national Dems could further harm her chances too.
RaceTracker Wiki: SD-AL
in big gain elections, not counting seats won by scandals, a lot of gains come from states that lean towards the party, are changing towards the party, or are leaving the party but have one last bit of nostalgia. to explain what i mean, look at the wins in 2006 and 2008.
most of the seats came from blue states like the house seats from new york, california, wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, the senate seats in rhode island, oregon, minnesota, new mexico, and others.
swing states that lean towards one party also produce a lot of seats. pennsylvannias numerous house and senate seat. colorado, ohio, missouri, virginia, all states that are leaning towards the dems. they provided a lot of our gains.
the rest come from states that are leaving the party but vote for us, narrowly, one last time. dems won 4 senate seats in the south in 1986 with bob graham’s 55% being the highest margin. north carolina, alabama and georgia would turn away from us, but they still gave us their votes. this is similar to the deep south voting for Carter in 1976 by narrow margins.
herseth in is a read that that might ignore their preference for herseth just to get a member of the party they like ala lincoln chaffee’s 2006 defeat.
Congressman are too serious these days; it’d be good to get an outgoing guy like Chris Nelson in there.
Not sure if PPP is using a registered voter or likely voter model but… as of 2008
Republicans 45.53 percent
Dems 38.53
other 15.67
Then there are some minor party votes so the indie looks about right for this poll but the repubs are oversampled… that might be accurate for a likely voter screen though.
Unlike other polls where the incumbent D is in deep crap not for politics but for other reason (Dodd, Reid, somewhat Lincoln) we get a poll of a medium-red district with a non-wounded incumbent, and see sensible numbers.
A poll of Republican Lee Terry in a similar light/medium-red district would offer a good look at the other side of the coin.
The 50% rule. Using Senate races as a guide during 2008 and incumbents who were re-elected.
Mary Landrieu
Frank Lautenberg
Saxby Chambliss
Pat Roberts
Mitch McConnell
Roger Wicker
John Cornyn
Susan Collins
All multiple times under 50% in polls. I’m not sure it is that strong a guide. At least not as much as is assumed.