SSP Daily Digest: 12/30

Dave’s Redistricting App: If you use Dave’s App, please don’t close your browser window/tab when you take a break. Whenever you load a new instance of the app, it causes a big bandwidth hit, especially when you open up New York state. So to help Dave conserve bandwidth, leave your browser open once you’ve loaded whatever you’re working on until you’re finished with that project. Thanks! (D)

AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth says that he may be ready to start “testing the waters” for a primary challenge to John McCain. Hayworth was recently seen in D.C., holding a joint fundraiser with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that raked in $100,000. Hayworth’s share of the proceeds went directly to help alleviate his outstanding legal bills.

CT-Sen: Well, this is awkward. Before Chris Dodd led the attacks on AIG for its executive compensation fiasco, Dodd was in AIG’s offices, collecting checks from their employees.

MA-Sen: Republican Scott Brown has launched the first ad of his campaign, making a totally cheeseball comparison between himself and JFK.

NY-Gov: Basil Paterson, David’s dad and former SoS, raises the ugly specter of the 2002 gubernatorial primary between Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo as some kind of “warning” to Cuomo. (D)

AL-05: As we expected, PSC Commissioner Susan Parker has turned down the opportunity to challenge Parker Griffith in 2010. This leaves Democrats without a top shelf candidate, but there are other options worth considering. One potential candidate, state Rep. Randy Hinshaw, talks with Left in Alabama about the campaign that he’d like to see the Democratic nominee run. Doc’s Political Parlor hears that Deborah Bell Paseur is unlikely to run, and that Hinshaw is “as likely as anyone” to go for it. Madison County Commissioner Bob Harrison is also thinking about it.

CA-19: The Defenders of Wildlife are gearing up to do whatever it takes to prevent Richard Pombo from re-entering Congress (as he is considering), even if it means supporting another conservative Republican for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Meanwhile, Taniel notes that ex-Fresno mayor Jim Patterson is a Club For Growth protege — so this could be a pretty lively primary.

LA-03: State Rep. Nickie Monica has become the first Republican to file for the seat of Dem Rep. Charlie Melancon.

TX-10: Foreign policy consultant Dan Grant, who lost a 2008 Democratic primary to local celebrity judge Larry Joe Doherty, has taken his name out of consideration as a last-minute replacement for businessman Jack McDonald, who withdrew his candidacy for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul last week.

NC-10: Here’s something interesting we missed a while back: Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle is challenging Rep. Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, and he’s backed his play with $250K of his own money. It’s not really clear what exactly Keadle’s beef with McHenry is – he seems to be running a 1994-esque campaign, accusing McHenry (who’s only held office since 2005) of turning into a “career politician,” and pledging to serve no more than three terms himself. (Hat-tip: Reader IR) (D)

VA State Sen: Hotline on Call takes a look at a crucial special election between ex-Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt (R) and Del. Dave Marsden (D). Marsden and Hunt are running to replace Republican AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli. If Democrats somehow win the seat, they’d be able to pad their razor-thin majority in the Senate to 22-18.

NYC-Mayor: The Swing State Project has gotten its hands on the precinct-by-precinct results for the 2009 New York City mayor’s race. You can also check out our entire storehouse of obscure election returns and otherwise-unpublished polling memos at the SSP Document Collection. For some tasty eye candy and analysis, SSP Research Bureau Chief jeffmd has put together some beautiful maps comparing Thompson’s performance to Obama’s. (D)

Polltopia: Pick PPP’s next state polling target: Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Florida or Massachusetts.  

71 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/30”

  1. It is very disappointing to see TX-10 in the position it is in right now.  Obviously as someone else pointed out the CD which is TX-10 may change entirely after the census so it may not be that big of a loss.

  2. Silly waste of resources.

    What we need is a Connecticut poll without Dodd.  if Blumenthal wins by 20 points, Dodd’s writing is on the wall.  If Blumenthal performs WORSE than Dodd, well then that is a whole different story.  Right now people want Dodd to go because they presume a different Dem would do better, so it would be nice to see if there is actual evidence of that or not.

    Rassmussen with is poisoned sample polls interestings stuff, but PPP ends up with joke polls.

  3. To compare himself to JFK is a personal disgrace. Brown is using the same campaign technique’s that won him his state senate seat. Lie Lie Lie until enough people believe you to win. I hope Coakley makes roadkill out of this slimeball on election night.

  4. We should be able to win this seat.  Janet Oleszek ran a terrible campaign back in 2007 and still only lost to Cooch by less than 100 votes.  Marsden is about as good of a candidate as we could have for that race IMO.  The only disconcerting trend here is how bad Democratic turnout has been during 2009 between the Co. Executive Race (which Sharon Bulova came way too close to losing) to the Governor’s race.

  5. I have posted about this race a couple times but now the field is set and the Republican’s have nominated a real loser, Mike Parry. Today Parry was caught scrubbing his twitter page of gems like this

    read the exclusive on Mr O in Newsweek. He is a Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man

    To bad for Mr Parry someone has already taken a screenshot.

    Parry is running on the wingnut platform of God (for), Guns (for), and Gays (against).

    The Dems have nominated Physics Prof Jason Engbrecht. More info on Jason here

    There is also a legit Independence Party candidate so this will be a three way race.

  6. The wording in your post implies that Hayworth had a fundraiser in DC with Arpaio. Yes, JD Hayworth was in DC, and yes, he raised more than $100k from a recent fundraiser headlined by Arpaio. But the two are separate. The fundraiser was in Phoenix before his trip to DC.

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