CT-Sen: Blumenthal Crushes Opposition; SSP Moves To Lean D

Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 59

Rob Simmons (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 60

Linda McMahon (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 63

Peter Schiff (R): 23

(MoE: ±4.3%)

We got some tweets yesterday from PPP that they found Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal leading Republican opposition in the Connecticut Senate race by “uber-safe” margins. It seems like the message from that poll was received, as in the intervening day, Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Blumenthal finally got took the plunge and is running for the open seat. With everyone wondering about the ramifications of this stunning swap, this has to be one of the most eagerly awaited polls I’ve seen.

The numbers are, indeed, stunning. Blumenthal routs his Republican opposition, with the closest race against ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a whopping 31-point margin. Blumenthal’s favorables are 59/19, including 71% favorable among Dems, 60% among indies, and even a 37/35 favorable among Republicans.

This contrasts with Chris Dodd’s numbers: losing 44-40 to Simmons, tying Linda McMahon at 43-43, and beating Peter Schiff 44-37. While that’s actually a little better than some other recent polls had shown, it still indicates pretty clearly why he felt it was time to step aside. PPP also tested Rep. Chris Murphy, who seemed like a likely Plan C but seems highly unlikely to enter now that Blumenthal is already in. Murphy beats Simmons 42-35, McMahon 43-36, and Schiff 44-28: again, indicating that the problem was specific to Dodd (who clocked in with a pitiable 29/57 approval), and not with Connecticut suddenly turning against Democrats.

With this, we’re moving the race rating to Lean Democratic. Why only Lean D? (This may actually disappoint many of our salivating fans.) Our rationale is that Blumenthal is untested in terms of running for federal office, with potentially “mile wide, inch deep” support that comes with name rec from decades as the state’s AG that may dissipate somewhat in a heated election, especially one in an unfavorable year for Democrats. However, we’re doing so out of an abundance of caution, and expect to move this rating further in the Democratic direction if additional polls are in the same range.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

44 thoughts on “CT-Sen: Blumenthal Crushes Opposition; SSP Moves To Lean D”

  1. more cautious with your race racing than I am. That’s OK, though. Your reasoning is fair enough.  

  2. a 37/35 favorability rating among Republicans is very impressive.  I’m sure that the GOP will be ablie to chip his favorabilities among this group, but he still has the clear upper hand.

  3. Okay, who runs against Loserman in 2012?  Murphy?  DeLauro?  Probably not Larson (or is it Larsen?).  

    (NOTE: Don’t take that to mean I am in any way disappointed by these developments).

  4. with out worrying about re-election and taking a lot of time off to campaign. There are two important bills Dodd is working on and he can focused on getting them passed. This new is going to save the DSCC milions and millions of dollars.

  5. In the two matchups with Blumenthal both Linda McMahon and Rob Simmons get 28%. However, in the matchup with Chris Murphy, Linda McMahon gets 36% while Rob Simmons gets 35%. It hilarious if Simmons lost the primary.

  6. Is better than those at Cook Political.  They moved it only to Toss Up.  

    Between that rating and California at Lean D, I have to wonder what Charlie Cook and Jennifer Duffy are looking at.  It’s as if they see a similar 2010 electorate as Scott Rasmussen, at least in those races.

  7. I’m not so sure that this is a favorable trade for the Republicans. Sure, Hoeven is more conservative than Simmons, but Blumenthal is presumably more liberal than Dorgan.

    The GOP desperately needs some good news with moderates and the Northeast if it’s going to shake the label of ‘regional party’. If we lose Gregg’s seat (45% chance or so), along with the likely loss of the Governorships of Rhode Island and Vermont, then we’ll have no major officeholders in the Northeast at all aside from Snowe and Collins.

  8. Don’t know about Blumenthal but now it looks like a Democratic hold.  Connecticut is a state where Dems don’t need to be spending money in 2010 especially with so many races they need to defend (AK, NV, CO, DE, ND, PA) and the seats where the Dems could potentially pick up seats (MO, OH, NH, FL, NC)

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