ND-Sen: Hoeven In, Pomeroy Won’t Run

I’m now going to say a sentence I never thought I’d have to say: Let’s round up everything that’s happened so far in North Dakota today. The big news in the wake of Byron Dorgan’s retirement announcement, of course, is perhaps also the least surprising: Republican Gov. John Hoeven wasted no time in throwing his name into the ring for the newly open seat:

Popular Gov. John Hoeven is letting his political allies know that he’s preparing to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)

North Dakota Republican Party Chairman Gary Emineth told POLITICO that he spoke with Hoeven’s senior staff soon after learning of Dorgan’s retirement, and they informed him that Hoeven is preparing to jump in the Senate race once he deals with family issues back home.

Hoeven apparently will formally disclose his intentions within “two weeks.” Hoeven’s quick entry would almost certainly work to exclude any other prominent North Dakota Republicans from considering the race.

Now, who’s going to be running for the Democrats? If the Progressive Change Campaign Committee gets its way, it’ll still be Dorgan. They’ve organized a letter-writing campaign of constituents asking Dorgan to reconsider and run again; they’ve already racked up more than 1,000 notes.

The highest Dem on the totem pole would seem to be the state’s at-large Representative since 1992 (when Dorgan got promoted to the Senate), Earl Pomeroy. Pomeroy is officially noncommital right now, but reportedly has let his staff know that he’ll be remaining in the House. That may be for the best, as Pomeroy would be an underdog against Hoeven and he’d place that House seat in jeopardy as well. Instead, much of the speculation about possible Dem candidates has turned to former AG Heidi Heitkamp, who in fact ran against Hoeven in his first gubernatorial race in 2000. She held him to a 55-45 margin in that race after being diagnosed with breast cancer in mid-campaign, although she’s been out of politics since then. (She’s currently a director at Dakota Gasification, a synethetic fuels company.) (UPDATE: A new CQ article confirms that Pomeroy won’t run, and also mentions that in addition to the possibility of Heidi Heitkamp running, so too could her brother Joel Heitkamp, a former state Senator and now host of a popular local talk show.)

Speculation has also turned to perhaps the most famous North Dakotan: populist talk show host Ed Schultz, who has been fielding calls requesting that he run (including from the state House minority leader, Merle Boucher). Schultz said he’s a “long way” from actively considering it, but didn’t explicitly rule it out and did addresss Hoeven’s potential vulnerability.

We’ll have a clearer sense of this race next week, when R2K polls this race (assumedly with Pomeroy, Heitkamp, and Schultz matchups against Hoeven). R2K will also be tackling Colorado and Connecticut next week as well. (Discussion underway in BruinKid‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen

33 thoughts on “ND-Sen: Hoeven In, Pomeroy Won’t Run”

  1. Don’t botched retirement attempts (“Yeah, I changed my mind again”) make incumbents look bad? Unless, I guess, it’s spun in a really convincing way.  

  2. See how Heitkamp and Schultz fair against Hoeven, it’s quite possible they can win it and we could be looking at a competitive race, at least to keep Pomeroy safe and held the D’s in the Governor’s race.

    One of things lacking here, and in South Dakota, is lack of statewide Dems. GOP controls all state office, so either Dorgan or Conrad’s retirements were bound to hurt.

    But my best guess is that North Dakota is to 2010 what Virginia and New Mexico were in 2008.

    Also keep in mind there were polls from 2006 that showed Hoeven could beat Conrad if he had run then.  

  3. I don’t find him the most engaging person, but her does have North Dakota roots, and if he wins, he will definitely make for a strong progressive voice.  I think that we could retain it if someone strong like Schultz runs and the dems do ok nationally (which I think will occur).

  7. Of course almost any Dem is likely to get killed but those of you who think Shultz would stand a snowballs chance are kidding yourselves.

  14. so Ed trying to pull a “I have to live there for 5 years to run for the US Senate” trick is either uninformed or confused.

    At least one frequent candidate has already established that you can run for federal office in a state that you don’t live in provided you live there when you’re elected or sworn in or something like that.

    So thanks to the guy who ran for office in California, Nevada, and Arizona within 6 months in 2002, we have important legal precedents

  15. IIRC he’s had a record of generally non-partisan approval, from what I’ve heard.

    Also, what are his current approval numbers?

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