Rasmussen (1/5, likely voters, 12/1 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (46)
Undecided: 7 (9)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)
Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 9 (9)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)
Tom Cox (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 9 (10)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Kim Hendren (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Markos has already jumped upon this poll, trying to direct Lincoln’s attention to the possibility of retirement. DavidNYC made a persuasive case that Democrats would be better off with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter running in Lincoln’s place, and PPP will go into the field sometime during the next few weeks to test “alternatives” to Lincoln. (They’ll also test alternatives to Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, but that’s a discussion for another thread.)
RaceTracker: AR-Sen
For a state with such heavy D registration, Lincoln, even if I give her extra points for Ras bias, is doing very poorly. She should be spending tons of money touting her records and bashing the nonentities that are her GOP opponents, but at this rate, I’m not so sure she can save herself since with such low undecideds, folks have pretty much decided against retaining her in office, regardless of her Ag. Chair, $$ or Mike Beebe. Sad end!
Those numbers are terrible. What a change in 2 years, Pryor runs unopposed in 2008 and Lincoln is appears on the verge of losing big in 2010. Does anyone think this is a bit unsurprising and it is just indicative of the further polarization of the parties by region?
Get Lincoln to retire and find a better candidate. Every major statewide office in Arkansas is held by a dem and they were all elected to those office by a large margins.
Martha Shoffner, Dustin McDaniels, or Bill Halter would probably make this seat safe.
Or are the results of this poll just a convenient excuse to push a “dump Blanche” movement?
There is a draft Bill Halter facebook group:
http://www.facebook.com/group….
You can also follow the draft effort on twitter:
http://twitter.com/DraftHalter…
And there will be an official draft site up this week!
I hear Rasmussen is polling Hitler against Lincoln, with the poll showing Hitler with a ten-point lead.
Rasmussen’s polls have been tilting towards the GOP, but I have a feeling that this poll is still useful. Looking at the numbers and Rasmussen’s tilt towards the GOP, I think the numbers are more like Gilbert 49/Lincoln 42, Coleman 47/Lincoln 44, Cox 47/Lincoln 44, and Hendron 45/Lincoln 44.
What concerns me is that I don’t believe Lincoln will improve on these numbers in this year based solely on Lincoln’s record. If the economy improves, she should see an uptick, but it won’t be by much. If she’s the candidate, I think this seat will be somewhere between a Tossup to Lean R.
If Halter is the candidate, I think this seat will become Lean D. My feeling is that Halter is a better fit for the Arkansas electorate and won’t be tied to Lincoln’s votes in the Senate. He will also be a more effective campaigner if he joins the race than Lincoln.
Kim “that jew” Hendren – 47
Blanche Lincoln – 39
Stay classy Arkansas. You’re right up there with Louisiana and their infatuation with diaper boy Vitter.