The incredibly prolific Rasmussen Reports has touched down in three states today, so let’s look at what they have for us in one post.
NH-Sen (1/12, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):
Paul Hodes (D): 40 (38)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 49 (46)
Other: 3 (5)
Not Sure: 8 (12)Paul Hodes (D): 45
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38
Other: 6
Not Sure: 11Paul Hodes (D): 43
Bill Binnie (R): 37
Other: 5
Not Sure: 15
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (1/11, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)
Sue Lowden (R): 48 (49)
Other: 8 (6)
Undecided: 7 (3)Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 50 (49)
Other: 5 (6)
Undecided: 9 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (43)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (47)
Other: 10 (7)
Undecided: 7 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MN-Gov (1/11, likely voters, 11/10 in parens):
R.T. Rybak (D): 25 (30)
Mark Dayton (D): 34 (30)
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 12 (8)
Matt Entenza (D): 5 (6)
Other: 10 (5)
Not Sure: 13 (20)
(MoE: ±5%)Norm Coleman (R): 52 (50)
Marty Seifert (R): 9 (11)
Tom Emmer (R): 9 (1)
Pat Anderson (R): 5
Other: 7 (7)
Not Sure: 18 (26)
(MoE: ±6%)
Not a lot of surprises here — Reid is tanking, and Rasmussen picked the best possible time to show how damaged he is. The Minnesota Governor’s race is tilted in the direction of the ex-Senators, but I find it hard to imagine Dayton proving to be a formidable candidate after the DFL convention.
I’m almost mildly surprised that Rasmussen isn’t showing a better result for insurgent candidates Lamontagne and Binnie in the New Hampshire Senate race, but I suppose that neither of of those guys have established themselves in the public consciousness to a great degree yet. What I’m really interested in seeing is how Ayotte holds up in a GOP primary.
Hodes seems to be running a Coakley-esque campaign.
Dayton is a non-factor in the convention. It is the primary where he has a chance b/c of name ID and money. But he’s not going to win.
Hodes is tied, Reid is behind by five or six points.
Two faintly blue states, so about tied is right on the money, but Reid’s numbers are pathetic (though after a Ras adjustment he should be Angle if she somehow wins the primary).
Still another useless Nevada poll… poll someone other than reid as a Dem, run primary numbers on the Reps.
Hodes will win. He is a popular Congressman with no negatives. New Hampshire has been good to the Democrats since 2004.
Here is what Ive been thinking for some time now, and is only reflected by this poll, it has very little to do with Hodes being a crappy candidate and there being a sudden GOP bent in NH, it has a lot to do with Ayotte having dominated the local news when she announced for the weeks after.
She announced and was immediately attacked for being picked AG while Lynch assumed she’d stay on that role this whole time. It was tried to be framed as negative but meh, normal people really dont care about stuff like that. (ie. Mike Johans.) And then she got negative press for not being sufficiently conservative and has attracted more right-wing candidates because she is pro-choice or something in moderate loving NH.
I just think Ayotte has been the in the news lately while Hodes has silently been poorly building up his funds for the race. And this poll shows that it has very little to do with a Hodes problem but more so with an Ayotte surplus.
The MN-Gov polls are probably just an indication of name recognition. Rybak has big name rec for being a Twin City mayor, Dayton from being a Senator, MAK for being the one out front for the DFL dominated legislature and them getting pwned by Pawlenty repeatedly….. It’s MAK’s one giant flaw, getting spanked by Pawlenty as he out-maneuvered the state legislature over and over again. His unallotment plan is proving to be illegal so his new best out-maneuver was him line-item vetoing the Central Corridor lightrail funding and only promising to unveto it if the legislature passes a property tax cap.
Pawlenty is going to be bland in the Presidential race, but his handlers and consultants are absolutely killing us here in MN.
The headline in the St. Paul Pioneer Press article talked about Minnesotans’ opinions on a new Vikings stadium, but in the poll were numbers on the Governor race and other interesting political numbers. The poll was conducted by Decision Resources Ltd. (no idea if they are partisan or what their reputation is).
http://www.twincities.com/ci_1…
Some tidbits:
— Mark Dayton leads Norm Coleman 41-31, and Dayton leads Marty Seifert (state House member)41-25
— Margaret Anderson Kelliher (MN House Speaker) leads Coleman 33-31
— Minnesotans oppose a Tim Pawlenty run for president by a 2-1 margin; he has a 29/69 approval disapproval
— the Minnesota Legislature is at 20/75
— Al Franken’s positive/negative view is 33/49
— Michele Bachmann’s is 12/76
— people IDing as lib/mod/cons: 15% liberal (21% from last year), 48% moderate (35% last year), 34% conservative (29% last year)
— people IDing as Dem/Rep/ind: 38% Democratic (44% last year), 32% Republican (28% last year), 23% independent (25% last year)
— 46% said the stimulus helped the economy, 11% said it hurt, and 43% said no difference; 57% oppose passage of another stimulus
— 57% support the Obama/Democratic health reform plan (yes, that is majority support), 37% oppose it